Member Info for G_G_G

IWTO, where have you read there will be no growth in 2025? I re-read the last RNS for the Q3 results and it states 'the group remains on track to produce record profits in 2024 and 2025'. This states we can expect modest growth next year, so I don't know where you have seen / heard them guide for 'flat'.

YHAL, your position and opinions make sense to me now. Make sure you remember to flip the script when you buy back.

Lukee, yes that is great news. Being able to get away +100k per day in BBs will help to support the sp whilst down here. We've got 3 weeks before we find out if a formal offer is to be made. Hopefully another suitor comes out of the woodwork as well. If mgt deliver on their words in the last trading update RNS then circa USD$100m Adj EBITDA for next year should make this very attractive for 125p. After the BB completes this is less than USD$375m (adjusted for far weaker £ v USD). You'll have an EV:EBITDA end 2025 less than 5, and closer to 4 if they aggressively pay down debt. You'll also have a PE ratio of less than 6. These are crazy multiples for a t/o offer. Growth may have slowed, but this is a cash machine even if financials remain the same for the next few years. I maintain that hitting guidance for 2024, and guiding for modest growth in 2025 (as stated in Q3 update), and this will re-rate closer to 120p on its own accord. BBs will support the sp. One also needs to consider that many 'loose shares' have taken a position at this level or higher now. The base will be stronger and remain above 100p imo with the potential for a future offer above 125p still available. I remain happy to hold. GLA.

With two successful wells I'm hopng for more than 90p. This could be a world class reservoir and have the ability to 5x solely on these results. It does however require the company to get out there and sell the investment thesis. CRUX and vox simply won't cut it in this regard and shows a lack of understanding of what they need to do to get broad reach and interest. Proactive, lse (video interviews advertised here), oilprice.com (and other similar sites), plus Canadian equivalents should be employed. The companies that 5x rather than double go for all broad reach outlets. These guys need ot get their PR company to do better. We've got our first milestone this week. Exciting times. AIMHO GLA

bb14, i agree. one bidder has dropped out, which could be for a multitude of reasons. kestrel could have asked for too much, or may be about to make their own bid. mgt could have asked for a minimum sp to support any offer. who knows. it's unusual that you get an rns that says 2 x offers received. especially unusual when it's for the exact same value (been discussed here already). we're just unlikely to get a bidding war between these two parties.

i also agree the q4 results are incredibly important. if they meet (or exceed) guidance, with a positive growth forecast for 2025, then we'll be back to 125p on our own steam regardless of whether the remaining offer stands. q4 results and 2025 outlook are all that matters.

youhavingalaugh, what exactly is your position here other than to pop up and share your negative opinions - do you have any shares here? you seemingly appeared just after the q3 ****show trading update and i'm yet to see a post that hasn't been telling people to run for the hills. so do you own any shares here? if so, what will you be doing with them?

Certainly going to get very interesting if the well extension comes up trumps as it will point to their seismic and modelling being accurate. If this happens they need to get out and start beating the drum on publicity pre-Jetstream 2 drilling. In the success case for both wells this is a multi-bagger. But for a 5x they need to get the word out and the herd arriving en-masse from the He1 type of invetsments. Looking forward to next week. GLA

Stas, this is a well kept secret. Look at the number of posters here. Then head over the HE1 and look at the number of lemmings sitting on that board. Providing the next wells are successful the company needs to get the word out. They need a strong valuation in order to easily raise more capital, and I don't think the avenues they're pursuing to generate PR are the only ones they should be considering. For starters they should be pay for a video interview to be hosted on this site. It's the most highly visited investor site in the UK, which also happens to be where a major value disconnect exists. They should also be pushing hard with Proactive on both sides of the pond. And a different site they should write an article for is oilprice.com. This site is about commodities i.e. not just energy. I've seen articles go on that site and companies 3-5x within a week or two. It's not hard to get the word out. CRUX and vox aren't enough, and do not have the reach required to have this known across the UK PI community. No doubt there's a few similar sites in Canada they can engage. Investing £100k to really go after key sites can make the difference of £50m mcap. And that means a lot less shares when they inevitably need to raise again. AIMHO GLA

Ifsix, I don't believe there was any so not sure what game they are playing on that one either. The sp inexplicably dropped the day before the announcement, so caught everyone by surprise. Lots of games being played out here by the vultures. I don't care providing us PIs get dragged along for a price better than 125p. They really are taking the p!ss with that as an offer.

Oh my god Landowner, that's your reasoning? Jesus you are an !diot. Take a look at something like Sharescope or Marketscreener and you'll see why from a fundamentals standpoint it's near 1 year lows. But it's the developing macro environment that's driving the sp down. I could go into the impact of bond yields on government debt and budgets, and how that will spill over into tax policy for businesses and consumers, impacting employment levels and consumer spending, before delivering a potentially nasty recession, but I don't think your tiny brain wouldn't be able to understand it all. Retailers and the housing sector are the canaries in the coal mine. So take a look at what's happening in retail land and here to get your head around what's going on and likely to happen in the near future. I was looking for an informed opinion on the investment thesis here versus TW. Clearly your opinion isn't needed.

I'm guessing a tenner is all you can afford. And pray tell why are these shares under-valued? Please provide your analysis. Or is the only thing you can post 'here shorty, shorty'? Absolute zero.

Landowner, not caring what anyone thinks is why you're such a doughnut. C'mon let's have some more 'here shorty, shorty' drivel interspersed with some grade 3 spelling errors.

Hi folks, I'm looking at the housing sector as it goes through this crunch period. I agree there's probably a bit further to go on this drop due to what's happening in the bond market and how this will impact the wider economy. What I'm keen to understand form more knowledgeable and well researched posters is PSN v TW as an investment thesis. I tend to go big in a few stocks so would like a view on the pros and cons of each company.

Landowner, I've been reading this board the last few days and you're an absolute zero and seemingly too stupid to realise just how m@ronic you come across.

i agree decay. an offer of 125p is a slap in the face, especially for lths who haven't averaged down. pe are c@nts, and never anything less. there is zero doubt that kestrel are involved with these bids. my biggest annoyance is i think the accepted bid will be one that satisfies kestrel and other funds interests in the roll-over. it's not a straight up cash offer, and no doubt kestrel and others have said they're fine with it providing they maintain (or even improve) their % ownership in the unlisted entity. because of this i think the 125p is the lesser likely element to be improved by a decent margin.

edison input (f'all) points to an ev:ebitda of 5.2 and pe of 7.1 on 2023 numbers. these are shockingly low, by any standards. the pe multiple will also go down providing they hit revised guidance. the ev:ebitda will likely stay around the mid 5's due to the debt they took on with the shinez ****show. for any t/o to be of a semi-reasonable value it should be looking at a minimum 40% higher i.e. ev:ebitda of circa 7.5x and pe around 10. whoever wins the bid can effectively pay down debt from what is being put toward bbs and dividends in just over 3 years, and that's without any further growth.

i do believe we'll get an improved offer, but imagine the cash option will be maybe 10% higher from current offerors, so 135-140p. this would allow most lths to exit with a profit (although small), and make people believe it was a good deal versus 125p. best chance of getting +150p is for another bidder to enter the fray once the company and major holders have indicated whether they're willing to accept 125p (or slightly higher). once they do this it's hard for them to row back on +150p.

anything below 150p is a steal. having said that i'd be happy with +135p at the moment. market is getting f@cked from all sides and having a big slug of cash at the ready could yield some very good returns in time (providing one times things well).

hopefully the company is pushing for improved offers on the pathetically low 125p. the fact these offers are identical says the company has told them about one another, or they are acting in concert. ridiculous to think they can land on the exact same numbers. aimho gla

What's the general consensus on an improved offer? The 125p is far too low given key multiples. Do folks think there's a good chance of a +10-20% to current offer price landing in the coming weeks?

i really don't mind providing the 125p offer is increased by 10%. from that i'll be very happy and will move my money elsewhere. too much cloak and dagger **** to understand with roll option. cash will do me nicely.

Nice to see you over here Stas. It's an interesting proposition isn't it? The only issue is the lack of awareness here in the UK of what could be a world class HE and CO2 deposit, in the US no less. I'm going to write to the company to suggest a few websites they should advertise on / promote the company. One of them is here, where they have the video interviews. Very good eyeball value, and hits the biggest UK small investor site by a distance. This should help UK awareness. I think they should also put some money into Proactive. Anyone have any other suggestions?

SS, thanks for your msg. Yep still in TXP but down to 165k shares. I might add a few more if it drops back a bit but not likely to go anywhere near the amount I had previously. Just need to see what happens in TIG in the coming weeks. Would be wonderful if they get a counter-offer closer to a decent value. How long have you been here?

Nice bit of cash Stas, especially in a tough market. The idea of this going for more than 135p is quite wonderful. I do think this is where an offer is likely to be accepted by all parties.

If you want another punt Stas then check out Pulsar Helium. Full disclosure I have 300k shares there now. Just picked up 150k today after this wonderful news. It has genuine potential to 5x. Maybe 10x. There's a 35% difference in value between TSX /OTC versus AIM at the moment. Crazy and no reason for it, but such is the nature of the UK market. They are drilling a huge prospect right now that has already yielded 14% He, which is amongst the highest concentrations you can get anywhere in the world. They have another drill planned that should be in the sweet spot area. And are fully cashed up for both drills. Next 2 x drills could make this a world class region with crazy economics. Think He1 but far better. And in the US. Hoping my new little boy is a good luck charm. Folks will need to buy in the next week before things could go bananas. Stas, if you follow me into that one and it goes nuts then you owe me a beer :)

Ok, one more 50k for me. I like to do things in multiples of 3. So 300k final position :) The posts from Dicko made me too excited for a potential 5x. I'm going to drop a few posts on other boards. Bad form but couldn't care less. A few people made a lot of money from TIG and SHG from me doing this. Just need these wells to come in and we're gonna be rich!!! :)

Actually make that another 50k. Now 250k at 28p. Going to sit on this from now. Just had a close to £200k reversal in fortune over on TIG :) Incredible the difference a day can make. Hoping to make at least £100k profit here. GLA

That 50k popping up is me fellas. Now sitting on 200k @ 27.75p :)

hey stas, you're welcome! how much have you made from this share?

i'm so happy that i averaged down. i've been ****ting myself as i built up 660k shares at £114p average. we just had a baby on january 01st so the stress of having been hit for a solid 6 figures here and having a new arrival has been pretty immense. feeling much more relieved now :)

i do agree however the bids are too low and confident there will be an increased bid in the coming days / weeks. anything above 135p and i'll be very happy. got a £65k profit now. would be nice for it to bounce up to +£100k :) gla

Ok so what am I missing here? We've got a sp disconnect of 35% between TSX and AIM / OTC, which in itself is bizarre. Anyone know why? Also, does anyone have some good comparators for Helium companies and potential here? Seems like we have a free roll of the dice with the 500m extension plus another Jetstream drill that should enhance the size and scale of resources available. Also, am I correct in saying that we also have enough funds for development of Jetstream 1?

I can't get my head around the TSX/AIM disconnect. OTC value aligns with TSX. Is this just a free value run at shares here? Seems like either of the next 2 x drills coming in (JS 1 +500m or JS 2) should get us back to 12 month TSX highs. That would be a 3x if we regain CAD1.6.

An earlier post referenced txp and i3e. I was in i3e and there was never a disconnect of more than 10%. Same with txp, which I'm still invested in.