Member Info for G_G_G

che7win, suggest you look at the sp and tell me why the market isn't seeing what you are spouting. the comment about mgt not putting a foot wrong made me shake my head. i imagine most other posters thought the same. and yes i do believe the government of a tinpot country will pull strings of local banks, just like they do in every tinpot country. this could be to our favour or detriment on this deal. and yes i do believe ageing assets of majors can be picked up for pennies on the pound. just look at what has been happening in the north sea, canada, etc. not saying this deal was terrible. i just think they could have done better. if we're to believe that casc will produce 15-20mmcf per $5m well, then take $23m with a 65% decline over 18 months and do the maths. you'll end up with far more production and cashflow from casc even at 50% pricing. so i don't look at this deal thinking 'wow'. if pricing is more than double casc i.e. +$4.50 then it's a good deal. the infrastructure obviously has value, but only if you can generate the production. at the moment they have production capacity everywhere. and you don't know decomm details.

i posted earlier before i saw the sp. now back to the ****show level we were at before the deal. tells you everything you need to know about how the mkt values the words of pb and the fat bod. they're seen as a bunch of amateurs at the moment, and for good reason. they have huge assets, quite good gas pricing, and yet the sp is below pre-pandemic levels. performance can only be categorised as f@cking pathetic, and certainly not summed up as 'not putting a foot wrong'.

Hi SS, I sold 550k shares at the same price as now. So not quite a 'rabbit being pulled' by mgt if the sp is still 23p. The major risk here is dilution. And before anyone says PB mentioned debt, please remember who you are quoting. Fwiw I'm open to putting more money into here if they do a capital raise with debt as I think this could be the best way to go given PB and team seem to f@ck most things up from an operational standpoint. It would mean far less risk to the balance sheet should something go wrong. Say $10m raise and $20m debt (inc $10m to complete Casc drill plans). We'd have year end net debt of less than $40m. But you'd have 9kboepd average 2025 production with enough cashflow to really push drilling in 2026. If they can re-negotiate Casc pricing then 2026 could be when they really go for it. They have the land, but they need the cash. Will wait and watch for now. But until we know the Central gas pricing, decomm specifics, and decline rates, we really don't know how good this deal happens to be. AIMHO GLA

Hi Johnno, there's a lot of 'ifs' given they don't have cash for the Casc wells ($10m) or the acquisition. I'd also imagine that any loan related to Casc cannot be diverted to Central - the terms would surely require them to be drilling Casc for the money to be released. I do believe comparisons can be made with Casc v Central insofar as Casc wells payback within 12 months, and Central over two years. This alone says they may have overpaid. Having said that we don't know the pricing for Central so how can we tell what they have paid versus payback. We also don't know decline rates.

Fwiw I think it COULD be a good acquisition, but only with more detail can we work something like that out. The price paid on first thoughts is too much though. These are old assets, which are worthless to BP. To be paying $23m up-front in cash is ridiculous given what some players are getting from majors for their their ageing and unwanted production / fields.

MM performance to date has been p!ss poor. And trust is completely shot. This deal isn't great, but could be good. And that depends on all the details on pricing and decomm costs to be released. Pricing would need to be at least double what we get for Casc for me to see this as being a good deal. They will need to raise debt for both Central and a couple of Casc wells. So lots of 'ifs'. The one thing that will change everything though is re-pricing of the Casc gas contract. If they can increase this by say $1 the whole investment thesis here changes. This is the joker in the pack. Not Central afaic. It's just a nice bolt-on and provides optionality. It could e used as leverage for Casc gas re-pricing, but TRIN would want something in return. I also imagine TRIN gov.t has quite a bit of sway over a local bank, so if they don't want this deal to go through they will simply pressure the bank not to provide the cash and the deal is as good as dead because they won;t be able to raise $23m without destroying shareholder value. Everything relies on the debt being raised. And my confidence / trust in PB and his team is very low. AIMHO GLA

Very disappointing BBs are slowing. No reason for them to do this and allow the sp to fall back. As for mgt or major shareholders having no influence over Zeus, well I don't believe that for one second. In theory yes. But in practise they are the nominated broker for a company and will no doubt have been given guidance by the company on how they would like the BBs to be conducted within the confines of the published terms. The only way we will regain some value is with the BBs being utilised effectively on low volume days. It should not be the responsibility of PIs to support the sp after mgt f@ck ups, especially when there is such a large BB allowance available. Mgt as I've said previously should be putting their hands in their pockets as well. I can only hope the reason they're not doing this is because an asset disposal or company t/o is being negotiated. Poor form if not.

still holding shares here as i've sold most at a loss. absolutely gutted and would be remiss of me not to point out this mgt team continues to disappoint. the difference between their words / promises and results are stark every quarter. from a trust pov they are ****, so take anything they say with a pinch of salt.

as for this acquisition. well there's nowhere near enough information to understand if it was a 'good' deal. it is by no way a 'great' deal simply because of the money they have spent to acquire it. consider what $23m cash could do with 4.5 wells in casc and compare versus the low decline 18mmcf for central. you then have no indication of gas pricing. and no idea of who is picking up the clean up / decomm costs (or how much they happen to be). pb and the merry mgt team of clowns f@cked trin. and to my mind they did this to generate reliable cash flow because they still don't have a grip on casc. makes sense, but doesn't fill me with confidence on casc, which is what this company is built around. there's also the question of capital raise v debt. pb cannot be trusted as evidenced by his words versus reality. so i will only believe a fully debt funded option when i see it. and the mkt seems to agree given we haven't appreciated further. and if it is debt funded, then what happens to the casc wells? i doubt they will get $30m in total, but if they can this will be good news.

summary is until we know gas pricing for central (and other gas that can be directed) we cannot understand the value of the deal. it seems too high at the moment to my mind though. and there's decomm costs. and then there's the elephant in the room on debt v equity (or mix), which we'll only know when we see it because pb is completely full of ****. if they can get double gas pricing from central and 'other', plus fund by debt, plus get extra debt to drill casc, then a re-rate is on the cards. but i'd say this will be back to the low 30's. to get beyond will need evidence of new casc wells performing. the real joker in the pack though is the re-negotiation of gas pricing for casc. even a bump to $3 will facilitate more wells and everyone will win txp & trin. that's the real area where things will change and the sp will re-rate to 40p+. aimho gla

Hi Bravo / IWTO, so what are your views on why Kestrel continue to buy shares? By my reckoning Kestrel is still in profit. At a guess I'd say their average would be circa 70-75p given the number of shares they have bought in the various capital raises. Is it just supporting the sp? Or are they looking to build 30% (with 51% insider ownership) in order to force a value creation event? This may be led by them, or they could team up with a bigger fish like KKR. It's the latter option that drew comparisons to IQG. I haven't delved too much into that t/o but it appears we would offer better value with a lower risk profile even at 150p.

IWTO, when you refer to SEO decline are you talking about CPMs? If CPM, then I agree the decline is undoubtedly a drag on the sp. Having said that, the decline will need to flatten at some point. And providing they continue growing impressions this will even itself out. I think the market needs evidence that CPMs are slowing or have flattened. Regardless, it is still a good cash generator at the moment and if they surprise to the upside in Q4 then a re-rate is on the cards. Shinez I agree is a mess of their own making and needs to be addressed. Again, any evidence of green shoots and the sp will pop. As for Tiktok, what are you talking about here exactly? It's not going to be closed down. They either sell to US interests, or Trump will save it (as he has promised). Nothing is going to be lost from what I can see - so what are you referring to exactly?

As for value creation events, I do see an IQG type t/o as being possible given they have done this previously, and continue to buy shares. I can also see the OP business being spun out. What I would like to see most though is the company de-list from the UK market and re-list in the US. This alone will double the sp and give them access to capital to expand at a faster rate. The US also isn't spooked by debt, and quite simply isn't a basket case like the UK economy led by an inept government. The recent tax changes led a lot of the decline imo, and we haven't seen any investors return (yet). But these are also reasons why an IQG type t/o will offer great value. A Kestrel supported consortium could simply by us out, clean up some loose ends and then re-list in the US for a very healthy profit.

Anyway, my thoughts. IWTO and Bravo, would be good to get your views on where the sp is likely to be in a few months and why.

Quick question, does anyone have a view on our major shareholder averages here? Would be good to understand hwo much they stand to make in the event of a t/o.

It seems as though they are happy to support the sp in the low 90's, but not willing to push it further. This is fine if we're at fair value. But for mgt to be talking about how under-valued we happen to be, and do nothing about changing the situation, is completely unacceptable to me. I picked up 12500 shares earlier today, which appears to be the biggest trade of the day. That is absolutely ridiculous. Because AIM is so full of scumb@g execs it makes me wonder what these guys are up to, and why they are happy to see the sp languish when they have the funds and ability to support it further. Same goes for ExCo buys.

Either way if they hit or exceed guidance there will be a strong re-rate so the main thing is they deliver the numbers in 6 weeks. I see Kestrel buying as a sign this will happen so will continue to add in the high 80's and very low 90's if given the opportunity. These guys better not f@ck things up any further. Hopefully back to 120p in eight weeks. Even better we get a t/o offer. GLA

straightaim, that's less than 80k over 3 days. they have the ability to buy +5m more shares and have been talking about the clear value disconnect. so this should be absolute bargain basement for the company to keep buying. not to mention our exc have f@cked the sp single-handedly with the shinez acquisition, and missing targets by a considerable amount after telling the mkt they were on track just 6 weeks before they dropped a pile of **** rns. there is absolutely no way they should be pulling back unless they think 92p represents fair value for the company. they cannot have it both ways.

the other thing exco should be doing is investing in the company themselves. according to them it's in bargain territory, so why aren't they buying considering they created the bargain?

as for today, this is the exact day you can shift the sp by a couple of pennies and still take advantage of the sp on offer. it 's a low volume day, so why no bbs?

Anyone emailed the company about why no Director buys from their fat bod? Pretty f@cking useless bunch of execs given current sp performance. At the very least they should be buying shares given they have created the current mess. No point talking about a sp disconnect then doing nothing to try and fix it. They even benefit from buying at the lows they have created. Send some emails folks and make them angry.

I'll send an email to Zeus and company. Never got a response from either last time, which is disappointing given I'm quite a large PI. Zeus did do a bit of Linkedin stalking though, so they obviously saw my email. Suggest everyone on this board does the same. Mgt & Zeus should at least have a target price / mcap of a minimum acceptable base value. For me that would be 102p (250m mcap). This gives us an EV:EBITDA of 4.25 on current projections, which is still appalling. This level would provide a solid foundation to close the gap back to 120p if (hopefully when) they hit revised guidance. It also puts a decent floor in for any t/o offer. Strongly suggest folks put some words into the company and Zeus. I'd also suggest adding that mgt should be putting their hands in their pockets given their poor decision making has created the current mess. GLA

Dartron, not familiar with the other stocks you have mentioned but can assure you that Spire Healthcare is going nowhere unless it is taken over. Unbelievably poorly managed, which is evidenced in the sp going backwards over the past 8 years when the CEO and current ExCo have been in place. Even in a windfall environment for healthcare the sp is a joke. I do however agree that money can be made in trading. That was my idea for TXP - to sell down at 40p. Unfortunately it went from 32p to 22p, rather than 40p. The story there is still potentially good, just not for another 12 months. For Spire I'd suggest buying in the 210-220p range and selling whenever it hits 230p or above. You're not getting back above 250p unless it's a t/o offer.

Interested to know your views on TIG and where you see it going in the next 12 months. And what's your thoughts on a t/o offer here?

gord, my understanding is the updates to reporting thresholds will happen after the shares are cancelled. happy to be corrected.

crl, sorry for your losses. it sucks to get hit hard, but especially when it's completely unexpected. i don't mind if i've invested in a speccy and it all goes wrong. the thing that ****s me about this company and txp is all the bull**** spouted by mgt. both had reassured the market about forecasts being fine just weeks before they dropped stinking rns' that have cratered the sp. they have either misled investors, or they have no f@cking idea about the numbers. both are not good.

the other thing that i cannot abide is the same mgt teams not putting their hands in their pockets to fix the sp they have decimated. they shouldn't be in a job afaic, but at the very least they should be using the money we pay them to help right their wrongs.

as for here, i do hope they are going to kickstart the volume of bbs from now. unacceptable for them to slow down in the low 90's. mgt cannot talk of us being grossly undervalued at 130p and then do nothing when we're in the low 90's after their f@ck ups. either they buy shares themselves, or they encourage much higher bb volumes until we reach a reasonable value. i would say this value is 120p (£300m mcap), which equates to an ev:ebitda of just under 5. the sp should be a source of shame for these mgt teams. and when you look at the bloated board of txp it's f@cking ridiculous those clowns haven't bought a ton of shares given their performance.

either way we'll need to wait longer and hold our breath these guys don't f@ck things up any further. i'm much more confident of a turnaround here, but trust in the mgt team is very thin. aimho gla

Dartron's has summed up my thoughts re Kestrel and their position. Their recent t/o of IQGeo was doe wiht KKR from memory. From my pov I think they're lining up TIG to do something similar.

crl, I'm still holding 165k shares in TXP. Not sure what to do with them. That car crash has followed the mess that we're in here and I'm still trying to recover. I've gotten hit for £175k in 3 weeks between these two f@cking stocks. I'm hoping to recoup a good chunk of it in the next 2 months from here, but need the sp to go back up to 120p for that to happen. Hopefully the gap will be filled and I can pretend it was all a bad dream. Even better would be a t/o offer. GLA

Casc 3 will decline further from 500bopd (oil) but folks need to recognise how good that number happens to be. Anything above 300bopd for on-shore is excellent. It's going to take longer than expected for the up-shot from all the acreage they hold, but it will happen providing they get the 'drill to fill' right. If I were them I'd front load (as they're planning to do) and then re-look at taking on more debt or a combination of debt and raise from a higher sp. SP on its knees but can see 50% from here in the next 6 months. Will be end of next year before they get up to 40p imo. AIMHO GLA

unfortunately i'm still in txp with 165k shares. i didn't sell them yesterday afternoon and who would guess we'd drop another 6% on the back of a 20% loss yesterday. f@cking killing me.

only good thing is i have 650k shares @1.14p average here. i still need for us to fill the gap to 120p then i'll end up back where i started before i invested a ****load in tig and txp. if that happens i'm going to lick my wounds and only re-enter aim with a maximum of 10% of my pf. the drops from being in dumb investments like txp are too much to stomach (i won;t mention the other !diotic aim investment i have made as i'm too ashamed to admit them).

i do feel much better about this investment. main reason being is the worst case scenario is still very good. and we're not relying on pis to support the sp. the bbs are doing it on their own. providing we have low volume and they continue with +150k shares per day from bbs, with some from kestrel thrown in for good measure, we'll get back to £1 quite easily (£250m mcap). question is whether we will regain £1.20 (£300m). extraordinary the selling that happened here on the recent drop. it made no sense except for a fund selling out. and yet we have no evidence this was the case. pis are pretty f@@lish (myself included it would appear), but they're not going to dump a company for heavy losses that is still growing, highly profitable, buying back 7.5% issued shares, paying a 2.5% dividend, and paying down relatively modest debt versus adj ebitda. that would be beyond stupid. my gut feel is whatever fund was selling down is done and the bbs and kestrel with a few pis are now pushing us higher. if fil aren't finished, and/or more pis join the party, we could move quite quickly indeed.

as mentioned a few times i think kestrel are in this for a t/o. they are still buying, have clear interest in the digital space based on a recent t/o, and are knocking on the door of 30% ownership already. with fil continuing to add it would point toward them believing kestrel are going to bid as well. i'm still a buyer but waiting for a pull back. just need to reclaim £1.20 for this all to have been a bad dream. gla

Hi Stas, yes TXP was an absolute shocker. Hopefully it bounces a bit and I can get away the remainder of those shares. I haven't posted on that board whilst selling down. Will give my thoughts once out.

Agree this is only going one way from now. One more day near 90p and the BB limit will move up to 93p from Wednesday. Hopefully they will continue to aggressively buy up to 200k per day whilst the sp is low.

It's interesting that Kestrel continue to add as well. Imo they're looking to make a bid. Otherwise why keep buying. Once PIs or other funds / IIs come to the same conclusion this could move very fast. My relatively modest buying on top of the BBs this morning turned the sp up from 86-87p. It certainly won't need much pressure to climb another 11% to £1. I'd be highly surprised if we're not back above £1 by Xmas. From there it will come down to the presentation on the 28th January. If they manage to meet guidance then I expect the sp to close the 119p gap. But if they exceed guidance with something +ve on CPMs (decline flattening or heaven forbid increasing) and/or Shinez starting to pick up, then I see the sp reclaiming the 130-138p channel quite quickly.

Hopefully no more surprises and we can at least get back above £1 for a gap attack end-January. Bid incoming in the next 6 weeks would be brilliant. GLA

Just to let you guys know I picked up another 75k shares today after dumping my other d@g, TXP. Stas no doubt you are smarting from that car crash of a company as well. I had 715k shares over there. Sold 550k for a 25% loss (circa £45k).

Doubling down here as I believe this is completely over sold and we'll be back to £1 pre-Xmas. It is generating a significant amount of money and still growing. And even with a higher sp they have picked up another circa 0.1% of issued shares on Friday last week. With each day we sit nearer 90p the purchase cap moves higher. In two days this will be circa 93p. My buys this morning alone turned the tide so with continued BBs and Kestrel buying more I don't see another 15% as too much of a reach. My rough estimate is Kestrel require another 5m shares in order to reach 30% when this BB finishes and shares are cancelled. If another round of BBs of the same magnitude for 2025 are announced (£20m) then Kestrel will comfortably hit 30% without having to purchase any more shares. The fact they continue buying tells me they're interested in making a bid. They must be p!ssing themselves as they buy 250k per week and the sp remains below £1. If they continue at the same weekly rate they'll have 30% ownership by the end of April.

If mgt can hit revised guidance at a minimum then I'd expect to see us close the gap to £1.19p. There's simply no way this company at USD$100m Adj EBITDA for the next 2 years doesn't get taken out, or re-rate to £1.50. Another 2 years of flat numbers and this is pretty much debt free and the share count would be circa 215m if buying back at a similar rate (£20m per year) at an AVERAGE of 130p (an average of 45% higher than current sp). At a sp of 130p and 215m shares that would give an mcap of circa USD$360m. So even if we still had USD40m debt on the books (unlikely) you're looking at an EV:EBITDA of less than 4 @ 130p.

Struggling to see how this stays down here for much longer. It may require the next set of results to wake PIs up. Either that or a bid lands. Average now £1.14.

If rules are followed any t/o price would be £1.47-1.48 based on their highest purchase price in the past 12 months. This represents a circa 70% premium to current sp. Of course the level we are at is straight up crazy and we should be at least £250m mcap (£1) until we get some further numbers. I expect we'll breach this sp pre Xmas and potentially run up a bit further prior to Q4 results. If the BB is finished and they cancel shares in early February (Q4 update) then Kestel will have gone through the 30% ownership. All very interesting and I'd argue an easy 20% low risk investment here. I think we'll get to £1 by Xmas just on the back of BB. But if our CEO/CFO who f@cked things up were to buy 100k shares I thimk we'll easily breach £1. Would be good for them to take some responsibility and put their hands in their pockets. GLA

I'm expecting BBs to continue from Monday. The 5 day average is sitting at circa 84p, so they can buy up to 88p. I'm hoping they do this in a meaningful way and we start setting a higher 5 day average base. If we can move back above 88p they will have an ability to continue with BBs up to 92p from Wednesday. A bit of PI buying on top and we'll have a decent wind behind the sp back to £1. Even at £1 they can buy back shares at an incredible discount to fair value. And by end January if they can keep buying at 750k shares per week or more, we should be in a position to make a second jump to close the £1.19 gap. All that is required is them hitting revised guidance and a sniff of CPMs having levelled with continued double digit growth in impressions. Any +ve news from the Shinez f@ck up will provide an additional shot in the arm. Folks need to remember that 2024 will still be a record year for Revenue and adj EBITDA.

Another way of looking at things is over the next 2 years without any further acquisitions and adj EBITDA at or above $100m they can all but eliminate debt, and have picked up 15% of shares in issue (up to £1.30). At the end of this you'll have about 210m shares. So £1.50 sp gives you an mcap of £315m (or $USD400m) and an EV:EBITDA of 4. This is a crazy multiple and doesn't allow for any growth whatsoever. The company is debt free and simply a cash machine at this point.

Fwiw I doubt any of this will happen solely due to the fact the company will have been bought out in this time. To begin with, at the end of January when the BB will likely have been completed Kestrel will own 30% of the company. Maybe there will be a mandatory offer waiver, but if the BBs continue they will have pushed beyond 35% in 2 years, and this doesn't account for any more buying on their part.

Mgt just need to focus on the core businesses, fix the Shinez f@ck up, aggressively BB shares and pay down debt, and buy some more stock themselves. The rest will take care of itself in time. A sole US listing would of course be the best thing they can do and double the sp in an instant.

Anyway, hopefully we'll see a further jump in the coming weeks and back to £1 by Xmas. The BB should have completed around the same time we get Q4 results in 7 weeks. Providing they meet or exceed guidance the gap to £1.19 should close. AIMHO GLA