RE: Is no news good news?15 Jan 2025 13:12
bb, i agree with your observations. i do wonder whether the market has lost trust in mgt to deliver on their numbers, and / or this t/o offer, which is why it's not still sitting at the customary t/o offer -5%.
few good things from my pov are:
1. two funds saw value at 125p, which is a steal on every metric. so offer more likely to go ahead than not providing major shareholders are on board.
2. major holders have the option to roll-over their ownership. providing kestrel and 1 or 2 other major holders are willing to to do this (don't see why not given they believe in the company prior to t/o), then the offer should go through. they'll ultimately own the same amount of a company that won't be paying out circa usd+$25m in bbs, dividends, listing costs etc. they would be able to streamline and re-list in the us for double the value. invest to grow. or, break up the company. either way the road to 250p equivalent is far easier if they accept and roll-over.
3. low volume post t/o offers being announced suggests that pis scrambled to get in, then **** the bed and scrambled to get out. the shares that have shifted hands are loose change numbers and i don't believe have any idea about whether the second offer will go through.
4. the current 125p bid is the lowest they will accept and can only get better if pushed through. there is a chance of a second offer from another fund, or kestrel teaming up with someone else, or major holders who wish to exit insisting on a higher cash out price.
5. current level i think will hold unless q4 results are disastrous. it was slowly re-rating to this Β£250m mcap level anyway. bbs are continuing at a decent clip which are also supportive.
providing q4 / 2024 numbers are met, and they guide for modest growth in revenue and adj ebitda in 2025, then i see huge value down here, regardless of whether the t/o goes through. if the update later this month shows these numbers and we're still down here then i'll definitely go in for more. the t/o will either go through, or it will fall over and the new level of 125p will be set as a base. so hitting numbers for q4/2024, and +ve 2025 guidance is all that matters to me at this juncture. aimho gla