Member Info for G_G_G

There's your answer. A big £40k dump at 30.25p. Reckon it's North you guys are buying from. Wouldn't be surprised if they've instructed to sell at anything above 29p. SP reaction could remain subdued because of these f@ckers, even with great news. Would normally have Fomo kicking in now. No such luck for us.

Surely the funds and PIs have offloaded most of their loose / IHT risked position by now StraightAim? As for the funds, I think for great investments like here the funds will only trim a little bit more. This is a growth stock with solid fundamentals unlike most of the garbage on AIM. Either way if we drop down to the 110 range I'm going to throw the sink at this one. Reckon I'll double my money within 2 years if it isn't taken out before-hand.

Very low volume. Question is whether those trimming their position in advance of CGT and IHT changes have now finished...? If so we should start to see some strength. If not we know where the bottom is (for now). If the budget is as ugly as people think it could hit the sp for a short shortlived -10% imo. The opposite holds for a more friendly budget. GLA

Proof will be in the production.

news of some description by end of next week unless they're going to be late on their extended timings. surely they would have let us know of any infrastructure issues with hook-up and production by now...? this is the only thing that concerns me. even with 40mmcf casc 2 & 3 combined we'll still be making decent money and they'll just need to get their **** together and start drilling two more wells this year. not long now. gla

We're going to be in the 20's at this rate. Will be tempted to go in for some more if that happens. Issue is no-one has faith in mgt delivering on their promises given past history. They have no road left for excuses. They need to hit their production and timings targets, and then get out there and beat the drum. One more week until they miss their already delayed timings target.

Agree WAAA. I can't remember when they first started selling down but it was before I started buying here around 6 months ago. I remember pointing out they were part of the sp weakness and also why I kept buying. Reckon a decent chunk of my 750k shares were owned by these guys. So less concerned about them 'knowing' anything about Casc.

I'd say that recent site visits etc are a sign of confidence by mgt that TXP is about to turn a new chapter and they're gearing up for it. Issue is these guys still have 7.5m shares to offload and they appear to be happy selling in the low 30's. I imagine they'd be ecstatic to be selling in the 40's if given the chance. So until we rid ourselves of these guys the sp will be restrained. The production results if good could flush them out, but it would take a lot of PI buying, or getting a fund II on-board to clear them out in one set of results. The second set of results with Casc 3 & 4 (if good) will most certainly be the end of them. So late January at the worst but expect a re-rate to happen all the same, maybe just not as big as we'd hope and the second one is where we start knocking on 60p. Not de-ramping, just trying to be realistic based on my experience. Surely an update by the end of next week. GLA

Chairman has just set up a fund to make undervalued UK acquisitions in the consumer, technology and digital media spaces. The stated war chest is £30m to £1bn. They could pick us up for £500m quite easily. Just a question as to whether Kestrel would sell for that number. I'd certainly have no problem with selling for 200p and doubt anyone else would as well.

quite a chunk of shares offloaded. must have been done over months given the complete lack of volume here for some time. also explains why we couldn't break 36p. they've binned off 2.5m shares in total. i also doubt this is the end of it. hopefully we get some great news and have a week of +1.5m shares being traded. that will give them room to bugger off. issue is we won't get any more notifications of them dropping shares. if they want out it will be just over 7m shares and that is going to take some time. even with some big volume weeks. pb and co better have their **** together. very heavy mgt for a company that has an mcap of less than £100m. can't be long before we get news.

The good thing is the investment thesis here is incredibly compelling. The key metrics are plain silly now - they were at 150p. And they're a growth company with double digit gains each year. If you look at industry values we would easily double with a US listing.

Reckon our Chairman's investment fund would still need to pay quite a premium from current sp. Founders and mgt own a decent slab here. If they want to cash out they will need to be offering something substantial given the value trajectory here over the past few years. Reckon 200p would represent fair value for both current investors and acquirer. Either way I'm going to keep adding if we enter the teens. I've got a decent chunk of cash set aside just for this company. Can't see us going below 110p with IHT and CGT nightmares. And if we do I'll start selling other stocks and chuck the kitchen sink at this one. As I said the investment thesis is fantastic so any damage done by the new tax regime will be quickly undone. And you've got the company buying back 5-10% of shares each year at the current rate. GLA

Agree Kirk but I'm wondering if we have some HNW individuals without shares in an ISA (only £20k per person allowance) who have parked their free capital here for the IHT relief. This combined with the threat of an increase in CGT up to some of the crazy levels kicked being about e.g. income tax bands or even a flat 30%, would make me trim my position if I've been here for more than 2 years. My shares are in an ISA here and I trimmed 50k last week @ 131p because I felt there would be some weakness. Was going to do another 50k when we jumped to 137p but stupidly sat and did nothing.

The EV:EBITDA, eps etc. metrics are looking plain silly now. BBs are kicking in at £50-100k daily, which is great at this sp level. I'm wondering if they'll accelerate them if the government screws us further. Also a good reason to crush the share count if looking to move listing. And guidance was re-affirmed at market consensus levels that were specified in the last rns, which are quite strong numbers.

With a US only listing the sp will absolutely fly. It would pretty much double overnight. It's also a great way to tell the successive h@lfwit UK governments they no longer wish to be based here due to their ever-changing tax regimes. If the government does the worst I think we could drop back to circa £300m mcap. This would take us back down to the 110-115p level that appears to be the bounce range for the past 3 years. If we get there I'm going to at least double my share count. This is a no brainer at current levels but fear we could get another 5-10% drop.

Also wondering if anyone thought it was interesting that our Chairman is setting up an investment vehicle fund targeting 'undervalued UK consumer, technology and digital media companies'. War chest is £30m-1bn. They could take us out and re-list int he US to make 50% profit almost immediately. Just a thought.

Anyway after typing this I've just re-purchased my 50k at 1.2299 in 2 x 25k successive blocks. Average now circa 130p for 250k. I'm going in hard if we drop back to 110p range. GLA

You got me McFirth. When I'm not starting wars I like to moonlight here as a de-ramper. The people you find on a micro-cap billboard eh.

The damage a f@ckwit government can do to the market is mind boggling. I hope TIG goes the way of many other AIM companies and moves listing if the government changes CGT and IHT rules. Preferably out of this basket case country.

Might be worth keeping an eye on those 50k sells. Always a bit worrying when we're so close to game-changing news (albeit delayed), where there has been no volume to speak of for weeks, and you get some block selling. Obviously for every seller there's a buyer. And it's still relatively small volume overall.

Fwiw it's not me. I'm actually considering going in for more. My only real concern is a significant infrastructure f@ck up. This would delay production, cost us more money to fix, and completely smash any confidence in their ability to execute. Would be the worst case scenario. Delays and sub optimal production (say 40mmcf combined) will wash through, especially with more wells coming online. So not as concerned on them. Just need to hear that hook up etc. has been successful and everything is going according to plan. Would be nice if they actually told us something about this given October 17th was the reference point. We wait and hope. GLA

One would hope we're about to receive some positive news and coverage with analysts and the fat man visiting. Overall things are starting to look better.

you referring to me super? not de-risking from my 750k. must admit i've thought about it many times. just frustrated with lack of clarity from mgt and requirement for second / third hand information from investors who were / weren't at the recent presentation. also sounds as though pbs side-kicks said some stupid **** (if true) at the conference. no point selling at my average if i've held for months for news that's supposed to be landing in the next couple of weeks, which also happens to be a few weeks late. if hook-up and gas flows start in november then average production for the year will come down. mu suspicion is it will be somewhere between 7-7.5kboepd. we should however easily hit exit rate production providing the wells come online at 50mmcf combined in the next few weeks. so would be bad and good news but think the good news will outweigh and we still get tot he 40's. getting higher than this will require casc 4 & 5 being drilled this year. gla

Rob, the note you just copied from Lewis is one of the more sensible things posted here. Suggest everyone reads it. Lots of good points, but don't ignore potential traps identified. Key traps to consider 1. No-one knows what Henkries Sth owners will do with their couple of hundred million initial shares. These will hit the market this year as the release mechanism is simply on signing of documentation, 2. There's another acquisition (potentially highly dilutive) to be made. The second point could send this 100% either direction if it's what I think it is. If they part fund then it will go up fast. If dilutive on similar terms to Eagle acquisition then 0.6-0.7p channel is the base.

Call me de-ramper but those who paid attention if selling on news last Monday could have bought up to 15-20% more shares 2 days later. Oh, and read up on potential budget traps for lse and AIM in particular. Not a major one for here as it's off Aim and has small PIs base and director ownership. PIs I certainly hope have their money shielded in ISAs. Those of you here who don't then stick it in an ISA this week. Budget could cause volatility across the market with significant CGT and IHT changes. I'll let you know if I buy back in. F@cking TXP are dragging their feet.

Super, no need to apologise. I appreciate your attempts to decipher whatever is being said on discord, which no doubt is all over the place. You are 100% correct in saying that TXP need to update the market in a way that is accessible and clear to all. Doing these industry presentations can lead to more confusion that providing a simple ops update or online interview. I'm hoping the latter is coming early next week with Malcy being in Trin. Let's see what tomorrow brings. GLA

Jesus this is getting even more confusing. How are they 'testing' anything if the government still needs sign-off on the pipelines? PB has already stated they are testing into the facility so would obviously need to be doing this utilising the pipelines.

If it is true in some nonsensical way that testing is being done and production starts in a couple of weeks then PB needs to put this in an rns. He has absolutely not guided the market that production starts in November. Who knows when flow rates will be reported. But perhaps more importantly there is zero chance of annual production targets being met. Exit rates hopefully, but not average production. I'm hoping this is the misinterpretation of a dimwitted PI at the presentation.

Thanks super, much clearer. I think it would have been better if PB did an online Q&A for investors. Or of course an rns update. Good thing is Malcy to be doing an interview or write up in the next week so hopefully a bit more detail from him. Disappointing they haven't committed to flow rates dates and spud of Casc 4&5, but again hopefully these will be specified in the next update. Overall unclear but +ve messages coming from mgt. Reckon we may see a bit of sp strength given what has been reported. GLA