RE: NCCL News??9 Jul 2020 11:34
Sadly you're correct jdt. Let's not forget we've been in this position before with Chinese partners. Timetables have never been met. And Hanno has donated a large amount of our money to his brother's company. These are things we do know. Having said that if he can start placing the remaining pieces of the jigsaw we will be well rewarded. The next pieces as CF has rightly pointed out are the Shareholder Terms Sheet (good news) and a revised timetable agreed by EDM (potentially bad news). Both were scheduled for release 'in the coming weeks', which by my count was 3 weeks ago tomorrow. We also have the EPC and historical cost audit to be completed in Q3, however in his interview he said these timings were generous so we should be expecting these pieces of news soon as well (given they were originally due end of June). The all important tariff agreement date hasn't been re-set but if it's pushed to H1 next year the SP will most likely stay under 6p, even with the other +ve newsflow. If they commit to Q4 and the rest of the news is delivered on time, then I'd expect 6-8p range with agreement of tariff taking us through 10p. Following tariff, each piece of news will push the SP to circa 20p on FC (my expectations). Reasoning for this is we can expect circa £40-50m in back costs + developer's fee on FC, which is 15p cash value. It makes no difference this will be re-invested into the project, as we'll have the rest of the finance sorted and in 4 years it will be throwing off v.large amounts of cash. Having said this I fully expect us to be bought out in part, or in full at FC, which would mean 20p+ depending on stake taken. A previosu report valued 10% of the project at $60m from memory (so 15p value per 10%).
All to play for, but we need the +ve news flow to start in the next week or so. Time for Hanno to start delivering more than just delays.