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Sorry meant to say 'usual interest' before news. Although this time there's a serious lack of interest. As said before, AT needs to take note of the fact that no-one is buying into the 'potential' of the project at the moment, which means they need to start delivering a little more concrete news if they want to be raising at higher levels than we're currently seeing.

Having said that I'm keen to see what happens with the new shares being printed. Question, what's to stop a Chinese entity snapping these up on the cheap? They would stay juts below the 3% threshold if split across two accounts and own close to 6% of the company. That's a 6% discount from any t/o offer...

MMs taking advantage of the usual pump before news.

Yep pretty much sums it up caml. Even if they don't have something to say, they're going to need to spin it far better than previously otherwise we'll end up raising in a 4p channel. The bod and Trahar I think have run out of road on most angles, which is demonstrated by the left-field, lead balloon port news. The EPP has been farcical all along. It's always been another ploy to expedite Chinese negotiations, which is why we haven't seen anything of substance related to what they've been working on for years now.

As for the bod not doing anything, the point I keep making is I don't think they can do anything unless they (and Glen) can get the ROC gov.t on-board for a sealed bid sale. I'd imagine with full ROC gov.t backing the project could be sold off for billions. The issue with this is it could lead to the Chinese turning around and asking for their billions in loans back. Working example of a Chinese debt trap :( It's telling that Glen, the master of back hand payments, has been unable to get this project monetised. It's all down to China (sadly). Or Glen could develop themselves with a floating port :)

Keeping away buyers here. More MMs bottom feeding.

Hi Sooty, what they've done is effectively an open offer, but with an incentive for the subscription shares to be sold at a higher price (the 5% fee). The shares have to be sold into the market, in an orderly manner. So rather than a set price capital raise, they've opted to go with whatever the market is willing to pay for them. If I had a little more confidence I'd be saying they're doing this knowing they have news in the near future that will boost the SP and hence generate more cash as the shares are sold. On the flip side they may have felt this financing news would boost the SP, as it means the funding concern is gone. I don't think Trahar and co realize the can kicking that has continued for years has clearly worn thin and even the most optimistic posters aren't popping up to say they've just bought another 100k.

Me, I'm happy to wait another year or two. But if we're approaching the end of the money raised by this subscription in 1-2 years time and they're not clearly closer to selling this project then the SP will be back to 2p levels seen years ago.

There's obviously country risk and a greater game being played outside of Zioc and Glen's control. There could be no other reason given it's a top 5 IO deposit on the planet, high grade, we're in an IO bull cycle, it's fully permitted, BFS completed (at $200m+ cost), Aus/Sino relations at a low point... the list goes on. One day it will catch a lot of people out like EUA (.45p to 7.2p at suspension in 4 months). Those investors that have held over the years will either be laughing or kicking themselves.

Hi Ferret, yes I do agree. The key to unlocking is most certainly not Glen. They have an idle asset and have publicly stated they're looking to sell assets to better manage their debt pile. They're simply waiting on a decent offer. That offer would most certainly be available in this market given what we saw with Simandou (and IO prices / demand). The difference between the two - Simandou had full gov.t support and attached to the sale was a guarantee of sorts that the owner will get clear passage from the gov.t if they build out the mine and associated infrastructure. Keep in mind that Simandou isn't the only IO deposit in that part of Guinea as well. The only problems as far as I can see it would exist between ROC and China. Either ROC are asking for massive under the table payments to give clear passage for the Chinese to develop the project. Or China aren't willing to pay a reasonable price for the project. It could of course be a combination of the two. It's also why we cannot sell to another major - ROC would block it on behalf of China (and themselves). Africa is f@cked because of the people in charge. Get those people on side and development will begin.

On the financing side, the deal that has been done is a good one, especially if we get a positive update on Monday or Tuesday as the SP will rocket and the proceeds can effectively double from the first tranche. If they sell at 10p versus 5p it's the difference between being comfortably funded for 2 years rather than 1 year fromt he 1st tranche alone (keeping in mind we have $400k in the bank and no debt). We know what this stock can do with a head of steam so not concerned about financing now. At the very least we're covered for another 24 months if the first and second tranches are taken up (even at 5p). Interesting that 2 x tranches take the issued shares to a nice round 300m. We can of course cancel the 3rd tranche whenever we want. Another good sign to ROC/China that we're good for a couple more years if they want to keep f@cking with us. If the SP drops to 4p then I'll take up 1m of the 7m that hits the market. We as PIs get to support the SP & Zioc here as 95% of whatever we buy from the first tranche will go to Zioc. Sort of like a raise from PIs, but without the set price. Question is do you wait for the update or get in now betting the SP will rise on good news...? Exciting few days ahead.

Extrader my old friend, what is your take on finance matters?

Munch, your ramblings are quite ridiculous. All Elphick could have given is a loan, and not purchased shares unless there's absolutely nothing going on in the background to suggest insider trading. It's why I was hoping for a SH loan, similar to what nccl has done. Will read the rns to get a better idea of what they've done but at a cursory glance they'll raise enough cash with 7m shares for 1 year of funding. They've looked to minimise dilution and have a staged funding facility, which would suggest they expect something to happen in the next 12 months. If not they can dip further into the loan.

Before we find out whether Zioc have been doing anything of note with COIDIC. Can kicking and I'm expecting 4p. Let's hope that Trahar and co. have been busy this past 6 months because it's abundantly clear from the lack of SP action that PIs are unwilling to listen to any more rubbish involving LOIs, MOUs, EPPs, floating ports etc. Over the past few years the run up to a period like this would see the SP in the teens at least. Now we're lucky to be holding above 6p. They need to pull their finger out and start doing something with this asset. If ROC & China are blocking any deal with another major they may as well just come out and say the ROC gov.t are dodgy as **** and see where that takes them. If the Chinese are unwilling to make a reasonable offer, someone else should be given the opportunity to make something of this project. The value it will bring to ROC in taxes alone would be huge, let alone the infrastructure it supports. In Australia these sorts of projects would normally have state and even national govt support to get off the ground. And they're one of the richest countries on the planet. Perhaps tells you something about what's happening here... At the very least I'd like them to do a raise at 5-6p for £1-2m, or even better announce a shareholder loan on decent terms. The SP is being anchored by the fact we have little money remaining so we may as well take a 5-10% dilution and get it over and done with.

5% spread in a £150m company is something of a joke. Can someone please explain to me what trading cannot be automated and we can do MMs out of a job. They contribute nothing to economic productivity (or society), and are the ultimate bottom feeders - living off other people's hard work. I cannot wait for the day that a gov.t has the balls to step in and end it all. In fact I'd love the day that most banker jobs are wiped out and machines take their place. Absolute joke how these guys make a living.

RRE will rise into close and end just up or even. We'll have a nice rise on Friday. Seems to be the way things have been playing out for over a month here. Maybe fomo driving it, but Thursday is the day to buy.

Not in the same place Mitch, as most people who read this forum would know by now. I believe ROC are being guided by the Chinese to say you can only sell to a Chinese entity / consortium, otherwise we'll make life very hard for you, which is why we're only ever speaking to the Chinese. The Chinese are their biggest creditor, and the only country / entity that will develop the infrastructure required for ROC's long term economic development. But the Chinese will want something for it. They'll want guarantees they can get their money back, which is linked to this project as it's big enough to pay for everything in their most prized currency - Iron Ore. But perhaps more importantly they'll have yet another port, probably with a 100 year lease, to further extend their influence over west Africa. The other infrastructure projects unlock the riches of ROC and will extend beyond these borders. They can effectively buy long-term influence in a 'new frontier', whilst getting more than their money back. There is no-one else who would give money to a corrupt, bankrupt nation under the guise that it's going to be used to build key infrastructure like port, rail, power etc. Even the IMF has baulked at it, and have only committed small sums in the past. Hardly the $5-10bn needed for key economic development projects. As mentioned it's why we've only heard of 'Chinese' conversations, and nothing about discussions with FMG, Rio, BHP, Vale... Most of these majors have worked in corrupt jurisdictions so have no problems being able to navigate the development of major projects, providing of course they have gov.t support. This to me is pretty clear and makes sense.

The Chinese are being, well Chinese. They have ROC in their back pocket, so don't need to make a reasonable offer. And most probably haven't gone near it given the recent 'floating port' solution. It's why Simandou was different. The government put out the tender, and the highest bidder won. The Chinese had to go all out to secure it. To say FMG didn't make a reasonable bid is quite ridiculous. They bid $9bn, which is a monstrous sum when you consider none of it goes to developing the mine and infrastructure to get the ore out of the country. Another $10-20bn at least.

If Glen get a reasonable offer they'll take it, with or without rights to market the ore. They have a huge asset that is sitting idle when they can use the $b to buy profitable, de-risked projects, or pay down their massive debt burden. Glassenberg would be a f@cking moron if he was looking to play it any other way. And we all know he isn't a fool. It's all down to the Chinese now. Let's hope they have a proper falling out with Oz, which will only serve to expedite a reasonable offer for Zanaga.

This month I'm expecting more can kicking. It will be sold at some point, of that I'm certain. It just requires the Chinese to make a reasonable offer. Zioc is nothing other than a pawn in an African 'great game'. AIMHO. GLA

Haha I really do enjoy reading your posts extrader. Wrt my dyspeptic observations of nccl and the African continent in general, I do agree there's dodginess to be found everywhere, but also believe the greatest anchor on the development of impoverished nations are their corrupt leaders and gov.t officials. It's hard to find a country in Africa that doesn't fit this description, be it Moz or ROC for that matter. With regard to nccl delays, I'm not sure why AFC would have anything to do with them, if indeed there are 'other reasons'. They may be having their own issues, but are a bit player in this saga. I'd lean more to the bigger players being the culprits. Do you agree the reasoning for the delay is dubious?

As for Zioc, I'm not sure about FMGs lack of pencil sharpening for Simandou. I'd say that $9bn, which as far as I know doesn't include the many more billions to develop the infrastructure and mine, is an absolutely bonkers bid. The pay-back period would be monstrous, unless of course you pay an even more monstrous sum to quickly scale to a 50-100m tonne mine. I do agree with you that COIDIC and China hold the keys to unlocking Zioc. Although I believe it's because they are pulling the strings of ROC to ensure they gain control of this resource, but at the moment aren't willing to pay a fair price for it. It's why we keep getting these 'nothing' updates every 6 months that are clearly directed at them. It's also why we haven't been able to follow the Guinean gov.t lead and put up a for sale sign with sealed bids. Why wouldn't you do this to monetise your idle asset when you know the massive numbers other major players are willing to pay for it in this bull market...? I still haven't heard a reasonable explanation for this.

Sorry extrader I forgot to ask your views on nccl's recent news. We can pick up over on that board if you like, but would greatly appreciate your thoughts on latest happenings.

Hi extrader, always good to hear your thoughts. Couple of thing I see differently:

1)
Yes one of 5 companies, but also the biggest and most valuable of the lot. And, one that has many years of production so if you're going to build a port and own the lease (most likely given the way China do things), then you're looking for 25+ year partners. Zioc other than being huge, and a producer of China's most important commodity, also has the best part of a century of high grade production. So I don't agree the port envisaged would be built without Zanaga ore.
2)
'They'd be extremely unlikely, I feel, to be lead player in a greenfield project in an unfamiliar country where not only the natives ain't friendly but their best friends wouldn't be either....and their best friends would , rather unhelpfully, be FMGL's target/key customer.....'

And yet they went up against China for Simandou knowing the chequered history of that project. So why would Zanaga be different to them?

Agree other points being made, but still cannot see why Zioc don't sell to another major. It's not like Rio or BHP haven't operated in similar jurisdictions.

Exactly caml, so why no j/v or b/o? I thought Simandou was the precursor to our sale. The losing parties would turnaround and target us... I simply do not believe that Glencore are unwilling to knock a big chunk out of their huge debt pile for a resource they have no intention of developing. There's also no way ZIOC wouldn't sell. You only live once and our bod can become stunningly rich instantly, or they can continue going down the same road as they've been on the last 10 years. It's a bull cycle and companies like FMG have cash coming out their ears that needs to find a home. I think ROC and Chinese are more likely to be the culprits in blocking any sale. Sadly you have an impoverished dodgy as f@ck nation, paired with a wealthy, opportunistic, dodgy as f@ck nation. And on the sidelines you have a dodgy as f@ck major commodities miner and trader. And then there's us stuck in the middle. Who would think it could be so hard to make a straight up sale.

Time for Hanno to stand up here. He looked disorientated in the last interview. Not at all comfortable. One thing that stood out for me is his assertion these studies could not have been completed earlier, which I really don't believe. The transmission study couldn't have been done earlier...? How has this not come up in the many years they've been dealing with EDM? Has EDM suddenly changed their entire infrastructure in the area? And then the wider mkt study being out of date? How the holy f@ck has this not been raised earlier?

Moz officials are either astoundingly **** at their jobs (entirely possible), or they're working another angle for kickbacks (highly probable give most African officials are corrupt scumb@gs). Really astounds me how the world is meant to feel sorry for Africa and yet when opportunities arise to help nations in the region develop their economy with key infrastructure projects the gov.t officials are there screwing things up until they get paid off. Moz and EDM aren't even financing anything. They just need to approve the project for the good of their people, their economy, and the wider region's economy. It isn't just electrification, which is the bedrock of economic development. It's also about employment, and the significant tax returns it will generate. All for their people and economy, if you believe all of the money generated goes in that direction. Imagine if African nations were run from the top down by honest people who care about their country and people rather than themselves. Imagine if their officials were held to the same standards as the developed world. I only hope it's not the Chinese state asking them to delay things due to credit fears, or because they want to do the dodgy on the deal. Sadly the Chinese are astoundingly dodgy as well.

Hi Caml, so I'll go back to my original question, why not sell to FMG who just lost their bidding war on Simandou after tabling a $9bn offer. If China are playing hardball ZIOP should tell them to f@ck off and we sell to a major. China wouldn't be able to develop the planned infrastructure without our mine - it just wouldn't be economical. And they would have lost out on the last major high grade resource on the planet, which can run for 100 years at 60bn tonnes a year. That's around 7% of their yearly IO imports. The majors can afford the circa $2.5bn to develop the mine, floating port etc. FMG could go straight to 60bn tonnes and still have spare change. Plus it would protect their mkt share, and give them significant share in the high grade space, for a century.

So I'll ask again, what is stopping them from selling to a major? The only thing that I can think of is ROC are saying they won't allow it, and that it has to be China or no-one. They would of course be doing this at the behest of China, their biggest creditor, and the only country that will develop the infrastructure to drag them out of the dark ages. And of course China are more than willing to pay off all the corrupt gov.t officials that exist in ROC, as they exist in every impoverished nation on the planet.

Glen need the money. They're not a developer. We're in a bull cycle. The asset is mine ready. Why not sell now to any buyer, if you can...?

That's very funny. Goes to show how little confidence investors have in all the updates ever coming to fruition. I simply don't understand why Glencore / Zioc haven't approached Fortescue to say you can have our mine for $2-3bn. Surely FMG would look at this and think they can get an almost equivalent of Simandou, and for the amount they bid for this project they can build the mine, rail, port, whatever they hell they need and still have spare change. They have a 100-year mine, with high grade product. I cannot help but think this sort of deal is being blocked not by Glencore, but by the ROC at the behest of China. And China is playing hardball on value. Otherwise why not sell to FMG (or another IO major) now. We're in a bull cycle. The work has been done to prove up the resource (well most of it) and the mine plans. We're completely permitted. And FMG can future proof their company for years to come with this project. There must be another roadblock...

Hi CF,

I'm not expecting anything different in terms of equity participation. They'll go with the original splits and the Chinese will take a bigger slice just prior to , or after FC. why would they commit to buying more of the project off nccl before they knwo the Moz gov.t (EDM) is going to commit to the tariff and PPA / PCA. It's an interesting piece of news, that's all. The EPC and historical costs are also important, and will no doubt shift the SP, but the tariff is the big one. Sadly this step relies on African gov.t officials, and we all know what that means.

F'ing annoyed with these delays. Nothing other than the shareholder term sheet will be agreed close to the time frames given. It's extraordinary that African nations with unbelievable need for modernisation and electrification, would choose to stall any project that will generate social advancement for their country. And yet almost every African nation, with very few exceptions, will almost always delay or f@ck things up. Is it gov.t players wanting backhand payments or are they just **** at their jobs? So EDM now say they need independent studies to be completed, one of which is a Mozambican power outlook study, and the other being an integration plan...? WTF! This project has taken years to get to this stage. How the f@ck have these thigns not been covered off or raised in the countless meetings that have occurred. EDM simply needed to say yes to the tariff they have known for ages, was submitted months ago, and is lower than the tariff they had agreed years ago for the same f'ing project. To think they need to commission new studies now...? And if they're commissioning it now, how long will it take to organise such a study, get it signed off by all partners, submit it to a bunch of corrupt clowns who probably don't understand what they're reading anyway. The Chinese should hurry up and pay the bribes to whatever African gov.t officials are holding this up. And before anyone says this is racist, I'd say the same thing about most of the Eastern Bloc, most of Sth America and a large part of Asia as well, so all races included here. Hell you still see it happen in developed western nations. It's just African nations are the worst. Sadly, the more impoverished a nation, the more corrupt its gov.t officials. That's what links all countries around the world. I thought this project was finally going somewhere and as always in Africa the officials that should be clambering for such projects are instead delaying them for obviously bull**** reasons. What does that say. It'll be interesting to see the next interviews.

Out of interest does anyone here speak with Hanno? Does he pick up a phone?