RE: 5p28 Aug 2020 11:35
Well some good news here today, although you'd hardly be able to tell from looking at the sp. Few positives that perhaps people are missing:
1. This agreement signals project partner commitment. It's what allows us to go into full form agreements, which are the legally binding commitments leading up to FC. Each full form agreement like EPC and O&M will signal deeper commitment, but we needed this step first.
2. CMEC is taking 60% (at the moment). This is very important as it means one partner. If both CMEC and GE were taking stakes it increases the time and effort for anything to be signed. Also, CMEC are the 'muscle' when it comes to our partners. They have the gov.t connections, the money, the 'know-how' etc. The more they own the better for us.
3. Finance to be arranged by CMEC. This knocks out the hardest element for a minnow like nccl leading up to FC. Again it's for just two parties. And the more CMEC own the easier it will be to close, which is why I believe %'s will change at shareholder agreement stage.
4. Agreement governed by English law. The Chinese & Moz are dodgy f@ckers so good to see this noted as well.
I've mentioned before that I didn't expect to see % stakes change at this stage as there's simply too many steps that need to be taken before FC. I also believe that nccl and the Chinese have discussed the cost of any additional stake and are simply ticking boxes before they come back to the table to agree final %'s & $'s. This I believe will happen at the shareholder agreement stage, but will be guided by the subscription agreement i.e. if 60% = $X, then 75% = $Y.
The reasons why I think the sp hasn't moved as much are as follows:
1. Some people thinking that CMEC would be taking a bigger stake at this stage. They're now disappointed and are moving on with their 10% gain.
2. The long list of remaining steps mentioned in this release. If we take an extra month or two for each of them then we'll still be waiting on FC in 2022. And nccl (+ partners) don't have form for hitting deadlines.
3. This signals project partner commitment, but not Moz commitment. Again, I've mentioned the most important next step is tariff approval. Without it, nothing of any real importance happens. I'm hoping that Hanno addresses this in any interviews he gives in the coming days. If he mentions tariff approval will happen before year end (hopefully sooner), then we'll see that re-rate to 6-7p that I've been talking about. The historical costs mean nothing. It will be nice to know that we have $25m coming back to us, which is more than our current Mcap, but it only happens if / when we get to FC.
In summary the most important step in the coming months is tariff agreement. My thoughts again on sp movements are we'll get to 6-7p leading up to tariff agreement (assuming historical costs, EPC & O&M are signed). On tariff approval we'll again break 10p. After this who knows. If the Chinese want an extra 10-15% then 25p seems about right at FC.