Member Info for G_G_G

But not the news we've been waiting for. Still, at least it's good news and not an rns informing us of more blown out timings. Hopefully we'll move to high 3's, dare I say 4p on the back of this. And if we can get the more important news in the coming days then maybe even 5-6p, which is where we should be sitting.

Anyone willing to risk a few grand for a quick 100% gain. We're talking small trades here. Good thing is it only takes about 500k of buying / selling pressure to move the stock 10-20%. I'm hoping the well overdue news is going to deliver 5m+ in volume. For reference we've broken 10m volume only 5 times in the past 3 years. The more I write the more exposed I feel in this stock...

AC the strengths of SWS are when a stock has producing assets and is generating revenue & profit. Great for comparing ftse 250s, but not resource stocks at explorer / developer stage. It provides little valuable insight to ARS. So bloody annoyed that I jumped in here instead of waiting for the pull-back to 2-2.1p support. Hopefully we've now consolidated and ready for the next leg into news.

Where's the well over-due news Hanno? We've got EPC, historical costs and SHATS. And then there's the new timetable that sets out the tariff agreement date. The first 3 should have been delivered in June and have nothing to do with EDM. Get it together Hanno. Lots of people here under-water with lots of money invested in you delivering this project (the coal fired plant, not your brother's company). I'm thankfully not as underwater as others but very nervous all the same due to history of this project falling over at the last minute (and Hanno's missed timelines).

Hi Jackbal, I understand how you've come to your conclusions but I'm not in the same place as to AE creating influence to withhold (or award) licenses. The licenses have been dragging on for long before AE entered the scene. As for banks lending money, I'm not sure AE need to go to the banks. It's the reason why they're potentially an excellent partner - they're the money. I think Tony has been caught out by not raising at the right times, and being a perennial deadline dodger. This has meant he had to give away 20% for f'all. Hopefully all that will change in the coming weeks and he can finally get the show on the road. If he can score near $50m for 60% then he will have transformed the company and they'll be able to progress full steam ahead (permits allowing) to development. Not long before we find out.

Having said all this, the SP is a f@cking joke and getting worse by the day. We'll be back at 1p before long at this rate.

Not sure about Indo pulling the rug from under ARS and re-selling licenses. That would put an end to mining investment in their country so not worth doing for a small to mid-size project in Indonesian mining terms. As for AE having access to dodgy b@stards in Indonesia. That's quite possible, and indeed probable, given how many dodgy b@stards there are in that part of the world. Having said that, I don't believe AE have them over a barrel. Quite simply because ARS can find another partner, which would effectively dilute AE (and sadly us). AE stand to do very well out of ARS if they're willing to make a reasonable offer on the project. They could own 60% of the project, plus 20% of the remaining 40%, which also gives them exposure to the big one, Beutong. Or, they can watch the funds they gave for 20% of the company be used to find another partner, which will result in dilution of their share of the company, whilst losing out on the project altogether. I would hope that TM had some sort of agreement in place with AE on the price for every 10% of the project, in return for not raising money again when the SP hit 4p. That's how i would have played it if giving away 20% of the company. Otherwise he could have raised the same amount with PIs at a higher price when COVID struck and been able to wait it out for a while longer. We'll see soon I suppose.

I'm hoping that Tony tells AE to f@ck off if they come in with a derisory offer. Simple response should be they will have their 20% diluted like all other shareholders if they're not willing to make a reasonable offer on KSK. We should receive some permit news in the coming weeks / months, which will give a much needed boost to the SP. Tony should use that opportunity to raise £2-3m via Primarybid as a warning shot to AE. AE will have been diluted by 10% (2% of their 20%) and ARS will be in a financial position that allows them to hold for a reasonable offer. Hell I'd throw money at that capital raise as I know at some point another suitor will emerge, and AE will be diluted even further. They'll lose their opportunity, and will see their 20% drop closer to 10%. I wouldn't want to be the guy who tried to play hardball over $10m and ends up losing access to a project that could make them hundreds of millions over the next 15-20 years. I also hope Tony sees this and doesn't jump too soon. I'm down 20% at the moment so not happy, but can see this over 5p if Tony can secure a deal on reasonable terms. Some permit news will take us through 3p so hopefully that will arrive in the near future and Tony uses this as leverage to make the right move for his company (shareholders).

That's a big jump CF. I agree 'at the maximum' it could be a huge jump, but don't see stakes being any different until after the project has been de-risked with Tariff, PPA, PCA. The Shareholder Agreement is the step where stakes will be bought and sold - just prior to FC. The EPC, historical costs and SHATS will provide a welcome boost, especially if the new timetable has tariff approval in Q4. Then we'll see 6p+, and perhaps even your 7p. But that requires a new agreed timetable with tariff in Q4, plus the other pieces of overdue news. As I've said before, when the tariff is approved we're looking at 10p.

Sorry Badeli but no chance. The required documentation will be in by end of Q3 (hopefully). The tariff approval will hopefully be Q4. Providing the new timetable states Q4, and we get the other news this quarter, then I think we'll be 6-7p in the run up to expected tariff approval. When the tariff drops we'll be 10p+. But if the tariff is pushed to Q1 2021 then we won't break 5p this quarter even with the other overdue news. The timetable and tariff approval in Q4 is key to us re-rating. Sadly we have to rely on EDM and the Moz gov.t for this to happen so there will be some dirty little hands needing to be greased.

Yep same place Badeli. My projections for H2 is if we get SHATS, EPC & historical costs this quarter, and the timetable for tariff agreement hasn't slipped past Q4, then we'll be clear of 6p by end of Q3. When the Tariff agreement lands it will boost the SP to 10p+. At this point I think you'll see some profit taking so will bounce around 8-12p depending on when the PPA, PCA etc are expected to be delivered. But when we get through these last hurdles, and we're looking at Shareholder Agreement being the only remaining before FC then I think we'll be 15p+. It's at this point we'll know how much the Chinese and potentially GE are wanting to take of the project. But the tariff is the first proper milestone that needs to be addressed. When we've got that in place the SP will no doubt be at a much higher level.

To watch the SP here. C'mon Tony, make it rain already.

Hi CF, as you know I'm a relatively large holder here but even with rose tinted glasses I just don't see SHATS being all that important. I could be wrong, but I don't see ownership splits being any different to previously announced at this stage. I'd imagine there have been conversations about final ownership, but until the Tariff, PPA & PCA are signed it would be far too risky to take more of the project now. These are the milestones that unlock the financial models. If they're not signed you don't have security over returns, so how could one adequately value the project. I think final ownership will be sorted at the Shareholder Agreement stage just prior to FC. To be clear if we get to this stage I believe we'll be closer to 20p rather than 4p. And every 10% that is purchased would add circa 10p to our SP. So if we end up with 20% of the project I'd envisage our SP to be around 40p. It's all to play for, but at this stage really comes down to Moz pushing things forward, rather than China.

There's no point quoting NPVs when it comes to putting a value on the project, especially when it isn't 'shovel ready' and has outstanding permits / infrastructure elements that will still impact the value someone is willing to pay. AE also brings much more than just project investment to this deal as well. They are able to arrange debt financing for whatever stake we manage to hold onto. My hope is we keep 33-50% of the project. If we can do this for $25m (33%) - $40m (50%) then we will have done quite well. You have to keep in mind that we will still need to stump up at least $90m for our 50% of the project. With debt financing for 65% of our stake, we need circa $32m as upfront equity, which leaves us with circa $10m to continue proving up Beutong. If you own the drills that's a lot of core over 1-2 years. This would be massive for the company as the build time for BKM is quite short so the project will be throwing of cash by the time Beutong starts to become really capital hungry. Beutong one could argue should have been the focus all along. It's a potential SolGold Alpala system and a £250m Mcap project at exploration /PFS stage. Doing a capital raise at these levels means very little dilution for 1 year of drilling, and if you have a project generating $60m Ebit annually.

If they can get these sorts of payment terms with financing arranged by AE the SP will double from here, and who knows where it will go once the drilling begins again at Beutong. You also have to remember that if AE want o d!ck about then TM can go to the Chinese and say this is what you need to pay and 50% of the project is yours. AE is left with 20% of 50% (10% total stake in project), rather than 60% (taking 50% project plus their 20% ownership of ARS) for circa $40m. TM just needs to ensure we get fair value and for AE to arrange the debt financing.

What in god's name is playing out here... Tony is there something you haven't told us?

Sorry fellas, if Hanno has no control over timelines then he shouldn't give them to the market without a degree of caution. Please also keep in mind he's never hit a timeline! The end of Q2 involved a series of announcements. The only one we got was delays across the board. There were a couple of announcements that didn't require Moz input. Why were they missed?

I'm hoping as much as the next person this will come off but my confidence in Hanno is pretty low. Even if you're to defend his lack of foresight and realism with regard to timelines, you cannot defend the significant amount of dilution he has delivered since taking the reins for the wrong things, at the wrong times. I think he's way out of his league and it shows.

In the meantime we await the news that was due 'in the coming weeks', which is now over 1 month ago since announced.

Throne, are you on the correct board with those SP projections?

As to ARS, wtf is going on here?

And back up we go. Bit annoyed I didn't wait another 30 minutes to pick up my 500k at 2.5p (rather than 2.59p). Now holding 1,5m at 2.75p. Looking for 4p+ on deal announcement, which will hopefully be soon. Some permit news certainly wouldn't go astray as well.

Company may want to make a statement if the market continues to believe this news will impact any deal. Better to be 3p then 2p when a deal is announced. We'll most likely still need to raise cash and require a much higher SP than where we are now to fund any development without significant dilution.

TM, I hope you're seeing this.

Apologies Soley I thought you were referring to the board and not a particular account. Was being a smart@ass.