RE: Down once more .... -7.5% on pre closing bell6 Aug 2020 18:39
AT is of no real importance when it comes to decision making. His job is investor relations, which could be confused with him being the person to make or attract a deal, but he's really just a mouthpiece with some options as an incentive to get the word out on Zanaga. He's also the son of a well known commodity exec, Tony Trahar.
Zanaga is a huge play with geopolitical consequences. It's also the future source of a huge amount of kickbacks for Congolese officials. So it's not as simple as putting up a 'For Sale' sign. China hold the keys. If they want it, and they're willing to pay a fair price for the resource (and pay off the right Congolese officials), then they'll have it. The asset is only for sale to Chinese interests, which is why Rio, BHP, Vale, Fortsecue etc. haven't come knocking. They don't have the connections, influence, or freedom to bribe like the Chinese state. Remember the project is just one part of the puzzle. The owner still needs rights for the slurry pipe and port just to get the stuff out of the country. Lots of opportunity for Congolese kickbacks, and the local bureaucrats know it. The difference with Simandou was the Guinean gov.t put up the for sale sign, which meant meant the highest bidder won, and no future gov.t hurdles.
So the blocker isn't Glencore as some have alluded to previously. They've publicly stated Zanaga is 'option value' and they don't intend to develop the project. They also need to pay down debt, which $2bn would do nicely. And they don't want to get caught up in another bribery scandal, which they know is part of getting things done in Africa.
Reality is we could still be sitting here in another 3 years talking about the ridiculous value in the ground. But I imagine the Chinese would prefer to be half way to extracting another 30m tonnes per year of high grade ore from another West African owned mine (and port), rather than paying crazy amounts for lower grade Australian ore, and having to deal with Australia's throwing **** at them. AIMHO, HTH.