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Agree CF. It's all very exciting. Providing we get those rns' and there isn't another covid lockdown then I think we'll likely hit 8p in the next 4 weeks. Fingers crossed there are no hold-ups.

Hi CF, I'm pretty confident the historical costs to be reimbursed are in the order of $20-25m. The developer's fee is what takes it to $50-60m at FC. I believe this month is just the historical costs, and not a confirmation of developer's fee but could have missed something from Hanno along the way...? Although the historical costs are important, I'd say the tariff confirmation is the most important piece of news due this month. Having said that the term sheet and EPC cost are critical as well. Lots of news that when delivered will provide a new base for the SP at a significantly higher level than we're currently at. After the PPA & PCA are agreed the SP will be easily into double digits, and I'd be very surprised at anything less than 20p at FC in less than 12 months time if the company hasn't already been taken out partially or in full. New investors can choose between a 2-3 bag in 6 months and a 5+bag in 12 months. Everything from now is legally binding as well, so the risk factor decreases significantly with every agreement signed. Looking a little perkier today as well. I think 5p by the end of next week if news hasn't dropped in the meantime. AIMHO

You really don't have a clue lonestag

I really do enjoy reading your posts extrader. Out of interest, what does 'sizing your investment accordingly' amount to in terms of shares?

And, what are your views on why ZIOP haven't to date put up a 'for sale' sign? I keep thinking of how Simandou was a relatively straight forward asset sale once all the legal wranglings over ownership was settled. The Guinean government essentially said you'll have ownership and our full support but you need to build the mine, rail, port... and may the best bid win. What could be stopping us from doing the same when Simandou has just blown the doors off in terms of valuation of Zanaga...? We know Glencore are willing to sell, and need the money. We're wiling to sell. We're in a IO bull cycle. All permits are in place. All work has been done to develop the mine. What (or who) are the barriers to sale?

FWIW I think there's something happening at an ROC and China level. I simply don't believe the ROC will allow it's greatest asset in the country (outside its oil reserves) to be sold to anyone other than the Chinese given how much the ROC is in debt to them, and the fact they're going to be developing the country's infrastructure. I also think the Chinese are playing hard ball on the valuation, and we're currently at an impasse, hence the port idea. What comes next, who knows. But I simply don't believe that if we were free to sell to anyone, we wouldn't have been on the phone to Fortescue straight after their failed $9bn Simandou bid and said 'you can have ours for $5bn, and by the way it will cost less than half to build'.

Other views welcome. Please also keep an eye on this post as the last times I posted something similar they were taken down. Perhaps being a conspiracy theorist, but these are the only times I've had posts removed when I haven't been calling someone a c@nt :)

Agree Ferret. I'm fortunate to have a reasonable amount of cash on the sidelines at the moment so will look to pick up another 250k if it dips below 6p, another 500k if it dips below 5p, 750k if it dips below 4p and so on. I know this is classic gambler behaviour but have held anything from 250k to 750k shares over the years and haven't fully taken advantage of the trading opportunity this stock presents when it's out of favour. What I've learnt is being a little over-exposed here isn't necessarily a bad thing, providing you're willing to wait until it drops below the 8p channel, and then wait further for it to go on one of it's runs. The only thing stopping me from going all in at the moment is I'm unsure about the finance situation. I know Trahar has mentioned to a few PIs there's no issue with funding but if I had a £ for every time an aim director has said such a thing only to turn around and do a raise then I wouldn't be needing to find my fortune here. And then of course there's the idiocy of how governments are approaching COVID mgt. Looking forward to the update. If more can kicking then I'm resigned to having a 7 figure holding with an average closer to 5p - I can think of worse companies to be in such a position. GLA. etc.

Yep, this is the start of the rise. AIM is so predictable. We just needed that 500k trade to kick things off. Big news normally delivers 10m+ volume days here. Those days are almost upon us!

I've just topped up another 150k at 6.42. Seems a good price given we have some news due. I'm now up to 500k at an average of about 8p. Have a terrible feeling we will get more can kicking, and potentially a fund raise. I'm fine with them raising £1m @6p or better as it will give certainty for funding for the next 12-18 months. Bonus is it might mean STZ will f@ck off for a while. Upside to any good news is obvious. Will see I suppose.

Good thing is this share seems ready to jump. It has weathered the recent market pull-back - barely moving compared to other stocks. Reasons are most holders are under water here, even those long term investors who picked up the cheap 3p shares in the raise recently. There's a floor at 3.5p and all holders are aware of the near term news flow that will steadily re-rate this stock to double digits. Most of the news is binding as well, so not the usual bull**** AIM terminology of MOUs and LOIs. I hate using some of the language you see all over these boards, but this stock really is a 'coiled spring'. You've got 50-100% upside in the next few weeks providing just half of the expected news lands. If all news lands on time you'll see a re-rate to 8p+. And then you've got the major de-risking events of H2 like the PPA and PCA. Once they're signed you're easily through 10p, and just 6 months to wait until FC when this stock will be 20p+, regardless of whether it gets taken out (partially or in full). There's £45-50m in historical payments and developer fees due to NCCL at FC. That alone is 3-4 times current Mcap. But if the Chinese take additional equity in the project, as expected, you're looking at circa £45m value per 10% owned (ref. old broker report numbers). Working around these numbers if the Chinese take another 20% of the project you've got circa £140m of cash to NCCL at FC, which is a 10 bag from here. Keep in mind there will be no more dilution, as once the SP hits 8p for 5 consecutive days they can call in another £1.3m from the recently issued warrants. Smart move by the bod really. Anyway, very exciting for any new investors at this price. As mentioned previously I made good money on a trade here around the JDA. Given there is an agreed timeline with our partners and the gov.t I'm confident we will hit the upcoming milestones and this stock will be 5-10x it's current value in 12 months time. The only thing I'm considering is whether I drop another £20k and take my holding to 2.5m shares. Decisions, decisions. Good luck all!

It may be worth reading the last 5 rns and look at the recent interviews to know what's due this month. I'm loaded with 2m @ 4p average. Thinking of going to 2.5m if the SP drops to 3.75p or below. I traded this share a couple of years ago for a 50% gain when the JDA dropped. It jumped about 100% in the run up to, and after the news dropped. Given how much is due in the coming month, and the importance of things such as the costs audit, shareholder agreement and tariff agreement, I'm expecting a similar jump in SP. Providing the tariff is agreed in the next month I'll probably see this one out. Reckon it's a 5 bag when FC happens in less than 12 months if not taken out before hand. Lovely entry point at anything below 4p given it is fully financed til year end and has warrants at 6p that will generate whatever additional monies they need when the SP gets over 8p (they can contractually force the warrants to be exercised). I imagine it will easily breach the 8p level in the run up to PPA agreement in a few months time. The absolute floor is around the 3-3.5p mark and significant upside from here. Also, China really cannot start backing down on commitments to African 'friends' after the damage they have caused worldwide recently. If they start stalling and playing silly buggers now it wouldn't look great so fully expect all the milestones slated for end-Q2 to be realised in the next few weeks. Exciting times.

Has there been any indication from ARS as to when they expect any offer / agreement to be made? Or, is there anything contractual that exists e.g. offer / agreement needs to be concluded in 60 days etc?

Only thing stopping me from buying more at the moment is the risk of a capital raise. Fine for me if they do it, I'd rather get 25% more shares for my money though. We must be very close to either a raise or ideally some form of a director's loan. I'm holding 375k, and hoping to build it to 750-1m. Just need one of my other investments to do its thing this month (and ideally Zioc to stay where it is).

Maske, what are your charts telling you? Where is the next support level now we have broken 9p? Some chunky sells earlier today :(

Feels like groundhog day. Just don't understand why they don;t put up the for sale sign rather than f'ing about with ports and EPPs.

True. But you can make a lot more money when the SP is 5-6 :)

Extrader, thanks for your thoughts. Interesting scenarios that you've described. For clarification the 'sealed bids' scenario I fully expect Glencore to drive given they are in the driver's seat. It's why I ask are Glencore holding up a sealed bids option (why I have no idea), or is ROC somehow scuppering this from happening on account of the Chinese and their role in building out the country's infrastructure...? Glencore could easily call for sealed bids and obtain a massive payday. It's a guaranteed sale, at a time that will leverage the value of the asset given whats happening in the market - Low supply + High price of high fe content, diplomatic row between Aus / China, Simandou sale etc

Anything below $500m for our share would be derisory. I'm hoping we can negotiate at least $1bn for our share when / if it ever happens. Crazy numbers given our current Mcap, but again, why wouldn't they do sealed bids if there's nothing stopping them from doing so. Especially given the $9bn offer made by FMG for Simandou. Hell if FMG offered half that number they could build the port, rail everything for ROC and still have spare change. It's why I keep saying there must be a roadblock to sealed bids. But who is blocking...?

We also haven't addresses the elephant in the room, which is funding. I asked this question the other day as well, where do people feel or much needed funding will come from - shareholder loan, or capital raise? This will need to be announced in the next couple of weeks so there's one piece of ATs news flow for June.

I always keep part of my holding just in case something happens that would make me want to jump off a bridge :) If I can pick up another couple of hundred k by trading then I'l normally do it. I stupidly didn't do this before the presentation even though I thought this would happen. I'd have another 150k shares just by buying back in now with my 1m tradingshares. Silly but you learn by not doing these things.

C'mon guys, there's clearly a stumbling block otherwise why not sealed bids. It ensures a sale, and at a strong price given Simandou sale value. Why f@ck about waiting, and pulling together all these 'conceptual port plans' or EPP plans (that no-one has seen). My view is ROC is blocking a sealed bid so it goes to China, who will build out all the necessary infrastructure. It's also my view the Chinese are dragging their feet and perhaps made a derisory offer, hence the RNS. But please, don't say kid yourself into thinking there's nothing stopping an offer being made. There's ROC / China, and there's Glencore. The reason why Simandou went through is because the government managed the process.

Yes Harkin. Yes 600. SP is going to drift on this. Anyone who has been here long enough knows what will happen. I've reduced by 1m shares today. Still hold 3m. Next entry point will be 2.5 - 2.75p for me. Reckon we'll need about 2 weeks before we're in that range.