RE: i3e28 Feb 2020 14:08
Hi Flabby, to be honest I think there's a couple of ways forward, but it will require extremely good negotiation by Graham and Majid for us not to get heavily diluted by way of ownership of one or both fields.
I think a f/o is the best way forward for both fields however for reasonable terms it will require OGA agreeing Serenity is connected to Tain, and/or there's interest in our acreage from more than just Repsol / RRE. Otherwise I agree with Wmsjames post that we'll be rinsed by RRE and will give up +50% of Serenity for one, maybe two (best case) free drills in Serenity. Sad thing is worst case scenario here is still better than where we currently sit.
The other way forward is we get Dolphin Drilling to agree to some form of partnership in Serenity for 1-2 appraisal drills. This would mean we can move forward and hopefully prove-up the field, with a view to raising capital closer to 40p further down the line. It would require a leap of faith by Dolphin, however they're more likely to have an idea of the size of prize than most. I also think the 'leak' came from their team so in a way they owe us something.
As for Liberator, I'm not sure the best way forward with this conundrum. There's definitely a deal to be done, but I think it's highly unlikely we'll be able to raise the +$50m to develop the 11m barrels ourselves. No-one will part with that money given what Majid has done with the appraisal money invested in the field. We could try to bring in a partner, however that didn't work the last time and we've gone backwards in terms of reserves after we drilled two holes into nothing. So to be honest I think the 11m barrels isn't worth all that much. Maybe we could get $20m if we were to sell but can't imagine anyone would want to partner us unless they take next to everything. As I've said before Majid & Graham should be quartered for what they've done here.
The only good news is we have two fields with hydrocarbons. The bad thing is we still don't have a clue as to how much we have in both fields. We have a negative balance sheet. We have a bod that no-one really believes in or trusts (not great for raising capital). And we're operating in an environment that is quickly turning against oil (long-term), and in the immediate term is severely depressed with no horizon on when it will change, all thanks to a f@cking super-flu (feels ridiculous even typing this). So overall I'd say Graham and Majid have got us in quite a pickle.