Member Info for G_G_G

Oiler, please stop plucking numbers out of your @rse. There is no way of knowing we have £15m in cash remaining. And I still don't know where you're getting £20m for 2P reserves. The cost of drilling the production well won't be far off this number. The cost of extraction is greater, although not as much as the 23m 2P, it's still substantially more than any numbers you're quoting. Graham refers to the RBL in a recent interview as costing less due to the lower reserves, but it not being a linear reduction. You can work out numbers from that if you wish but suggest you start around the $50m mark (allowing for equity raise). If I was to put fair value on this stock at the moment I'd say £15m max. There's too many unknowns and recent bad memories for it to break out above these levels unless we get a farm-out. If we do secure a farm-out our value is entirely dependent on the terms but I'd say the best we can hope for is 25-30p in the run up to drilling. We may get a spike on news, which is when I will be exiting and you will hear no more from me. But don't expect anything before-hand. Reality has hope, but unless your average is less than 10p don't expect to make lots of money on this stock for at least 1-2 years (depending on the f/o agreement and i3e actually hitting their f@cking oil targets).

Sorry Oiler I don't think any of the numbers make sense. Not sure where you get £10-15m cash? Not sure where you get £5m from second listing? Not sure how these two imaginary numbers equal 2/3 drills. Then a £15m RBL to produce 4,000boepd...?

I want this to fly as much as the next person, but every number listed above is plain nonsense. If they were actual numbers then yes your point stands. But not one of them is remotely correct. Hence a farm-out is the best option. By the way, you forgot to mention our current debt.

I'd take either Harel, even less :)

Few more differences though bigsmoke, AMER was pumping around 6kboepd, and had ownership of the pipeline. It also had no debt and around $50m in cash reserves from memory. And it had 2 x large partners in quite substantial fields / acreage. wit one field free carried to the value of around $80m (again from memory). So there's not too many similarities to be honest. I agree we are grossly undervalued at the moment, if this is what you're aiming at. However given what has transpired in recent history you can't blame the market for having limited trust and confidence in the bod. I'm up to my neck in this bloody small cap and I don't have all that much trust and confidence in them, so what does that say. Anyway, let's all pray for the farm-out in the next few weeks so some can enter and others can gracefully exit without too many wounds to lick.

Depends on your average Bigsmoke. I'm by no means the biggest PI but have close to £100k wrapped up in this f@cking share. It's killed me to sell other decent companies to average down my AIM flutter and still be 60% down. I just need these guys to do their job. I'm happy to take a few bumps and bruises, but not a +£50k bath. Main thing is the blood flow has been stemmed and we're in a stable condition. They now need to fix the injuries we've sustained from their incompetent actions, and get us into recovery mode. That rns won't do this. We need some more information in the coming weeks and ideally the one we've been waiting for - A farm-out on reasonable terms. If the assets are solid and indeed there's multiple interested parties, they should do a sealed bid for the farm-out with a 'reserve' clearly communicated. We can draw a line for negotiations to finish, ideally get what we're after, and move forward at pace. Having said this it didn't work out too well for AMER so we'll have to wait and see. GLA

I’m not going to sit here and poo poo this rns. Yes I’m still livid with the way this company and its assets have been managed to date, but I’m not sure what else could be said that we’d want to hear as investors. Farm-out in progress with multiple interested parties, and no placing associated with the second listing. Everything we needed reassurance on for now.

I’m still a long way from my 21.5p break-even, but at least the board have done something to quell rumour and provide something positive on the horizon. They could have been as useless as they’ve been in the past and sit and watch a downward spiral in the SP, so at least they’ve done one thing right here.

Sadly I do agree that a farm-out will take some time so I’d be hoping the company has a very clear pov of what they’re willing to offer and their hard-lines with respect to a farm-out. If indeed they have a number of interested parties I’d want them to do some type of open tender process with a reserve set, much like an auction. That way we can move forward in a fast, clean and effective way with our successful partner. It also means we’re guaranteed a decent outcome as investors.
Providing our assets are real, and there isn’t any bull**** surrounding what has been reported, then we would be very attractive to a number of parties due to the incredibly quick, low cost avenues to monetising the assets. We just need to rely on the board having been transparent and accurate in what we have in terms of assets. Good farm-out and we’re easily through 20p. That’s all I want and I’m out. This could be a great company in the making but too much bull**** has happened while I’ve been in this company for me to simply forget.

Monetary value is hard to pin down. Graham for instance picked up his shares on listing so who knows how much he had invested of actual money into the company before he picked up his millions. He has participated in previous capital raises and you can see how much he has actually invested in these from rns's. From memory he's in for about £100k from the raises. It's why I don't like people referring to how many shares the directors have when they haven't actually put that much 'hard earned money' into their company. Majid is a classic case. He basically holds what he's been given and not much more.

Hi JAdam, I understand people keep pointing to the shares held by board members, but equally there always seems to be a way for them to wriggle out of sustaining the same losses as PIs. How they do it I don't know, but Graham is quite crafty, as can be seen by the debt / equity deals he has done to date. I simply don't believe a city boy like him will end up in the same ditch as us. I do hope this isn't the case as the only thing that keeps me here is the thought they're in it with the rest of us, hence need to get their f@cking act together.

If the company goes under, who gets the assets?

I swear to god if there's a negative rns, or the share price lands around a future placing price I will do a Greta and camp outside the FCA until Graham and Majid are held accountable for the way this company has been run.

Who knows. Maybe we're witnessing the third round of insider trading.

Priced as if no-one has any confidence in our inept and most likely corrupt bod. How they have managed to c0ck this up is beyond me. Greed is the only word I'd use to describe them drilling at edges when they had enough money to focus on hitting an oil pool they know is there, and having it ready to go on-line this year. They'd still have money to chance their arm at Serenity and a spare drill for the 'appraisal' part of Liberator. What we're left with is a company that has more debt than cash. A lot of promise but no way of realising it. And a bunch of incompetent ****s running it. I mean let's face it, they told the market that Liberator was a certainty, then missed the oil not once, but twice. They hit Serenity, but given it had a lower chance of success and the way the other drills panned out you could only call it luck. And they had 2 rounds of insider trading so probably have the FCA up their @ss right now. Little wonder there's no-one lining up to give them more money. I now need a 200% gain to break even. Thanks Graham. Thanks Majid.

Accumulating...?

There could of course be another reason if I'm to put my pessimistic hat on. IIs are slowly offloading shares at 10p or thereabouts in order to participate in a 10p placing (with attached lower level warrants). If this turns out to be the case I'd ask every investor here to contact the FCA as it will show the bod being complicit in withholding information to PIs for the benefit of their city mates. The fact I'm even typing this shows how little faith and confidence I have in the ethics of our bod. As mentioned previously I have 350k @ 25p after averaging down heavily (more than I'd normally be comfortable doing). Once we hit 20p I'm out with a loss, but at least I'll still have my shirt. Taking a £55k loss is a little too much to bare given I believe we'll see a rebound in the next few weeks. Timing as always is key.

I've been thinking the same thing Harel, except I don't believe there's any issue with a change in bod. Given the way things have been handled I don't think the market will penalize the share price any further. The greatest risk to the SP is one of three things from my pov:

1. OGA determines Tain and Serenity are not in connection, therefore no farm-in agreement is required.
2. Independent audit of Serenity comes back saying they are full of ****e
3. Bleo Holm lease

If any of these things occur the company will be at serious risk of going under as they have no cash and a solid amount of debt. The fact they were wasteful with the money given to them will mean a lower chance of anyone giving them more without serious dilution occurring.

On the flip side the share price will get a rocket (20p+) from any of these things:
1. OGA determines the fields are in connection. Market will understand an agreement is forced and therefore strengthens I3E's hand in negotiating farm-in terms.
2. Independent audit confirms resources. Even if it's 100m STOIIP.
3. T/O or partial buy-out

Let's hope today was an aberration and not another example of insider trading.

If a placing at 10.5p is announced (given we're now hovering at 10.6p) then the bod have zero credibility, and are most likely crooks. It will also be the 3rd time that a 'leak' has occurred. I'll certainly be turning up at the next investor day to give them a shirt-fronting if this happens again. I got caught out in the last insider trading fiasco, and I'm certainly not going to be idle if this happens again. This company has great prospects. However the bod were greedy with the last drill campaign, trying to extend the field rather than focusing on proving up the 11m reserves and ensuring they have a reserve based loan secured. Poor mgt decision, but then again if you're playing with other people's money then you're in the enviable position of get rich, or lose nothing if things don't work out. You can tell Graham has a banking background based on their decision making. In response to this, please don't mention Graham's shares - He paid nothing for them so had little to lose when gambling with his investor's money. He also hasn't addressed the insider trading for the drill campaign. Gutless to say the least. To be clear, I've averaged down as I believe this share will get above 20p in the couple of months. I'm just not comfortable with the way my money has been managed. If you're new to the share you've got an incredible entry point, and I'm envious. Just be aware of the insider trading and the questionable bod (ethically, not technically).

Tony, what you say is measured and fair. I agree there has been some exaggeration of potential and our current predicament of late. As a holder of 350k @25p (averaged down) I've been caught out by the failure to meet expectations, and the lack of confidence the market is showing in mgt due to the insider trading that clearly happened prior to results (twice). I don't expect to make money on this share. I do however believe there will be positive movement from this level that will help me to regain most (if not all) of my losses. They need a CPR that supports the numbers in the ground, and/or the OGA supporting the connection to Tain, and/or a farm-in on favorable terms (free carry for 2-3 appraisal drills for 50-60%) to get this moving to 20p+. If they can secure the final favorable terms I think this share could break 30p. So if you're new at this price it does represent very good reward potential for the risk profile (trusting the board in their assessment of Serenity). Time will tell I suppose.

One word - traffic.

Hi Austin, I wouldn't go so far as saying 'massive potential', but I did see the ability to get my money back if I got my average down to 25p. Beyond that level would mean selling out of other shares with better potential (and better managed).

As mentioned, I have no trust in the bod so there's a limit to how far I'll average down, especially if I have to sell out of HZM, and PMO to fund the buys. Hoping to get 20p plus and to get back into HZM at sub 3.75p.