Member Info for Fukurokuju79

Must admit since our last deep dive Seis, I've not bothered checking it. I will have a look at them all tomorrow I think.

Battery 'were Anglo wrong when they walked away from these licences some years back, or are they wrong now??'

I assume thats a rhetorical question, given the fact AA has returned to them and have agreed to the deal they have with ARCM. That's answer in itself. Anglo pulled out of Zambia some years ago and on their return, out of the options, they struck a deal with for the licences under the control of ARCM.

However who am I to say you don't know better than AA.

Pop it on your watch list if it's currently uninvestable for your own reasons. No harm in that. Let's chat again in the future.

I'm sure GGP had posters who didn't like what they saw at the time of their deal too.

Atb

I'm sure other stocks such as GGP had posters like you after around the time of their deal too.
The deal with ARCM may not seem like much, in your opinion, to a company like AA but it is a lot, and it's a great deal. One that AA won't have entered into without serious thought.

Their capex and cash payments to ARCM are sufficient that they think it's worth it and they dont throw it around like that for nothing. Indeed if the assets weren't considered so highly they wouldn't have offered these terms.

I suspect you've a boring day and are using the board for some light amusement.

Just pop back in in 12 months and have this discussion and maybe chuck a few bucks into a different opportunity if ARCM isn't your cuppa.

Personally I'm not holding for the shareprice after the JV but rather on the outcome of the future Swiss cheese of drilling by AA.

Atb

Battery, AA clearly value it much more than your give it credit for.

I've seen one other similar deal, but not as good as this one, and that was GGP.

ARCM may not be for you, which is fair enough. However if you pop up a board of investors in a company and effectively say the share price is heading down by 80% to get to what you deem fair value im sure you can probably anticipate the response you'll get from some.

I'm not convinced you'll get your entry price. But chick it in your chest list and see. Otherwise, comments like that are bound to alienate to be fair.

I'm not concerned with your view tbf, but I don't agree with it either and nor do AA. Have you looked at the deal....

Atb

It's not AA dragging it out. It's the requirement for the existing licence renewals and new applications to be approved by the ministry of mines.
On that basis removing the exclusivity at this point would give no advantage. Also, IMO, the deal AA have agreed to (after some hardballing by ARCM) is in itself demonstrative of their commitment. It's a corker.

The JV parties are simply passengers at this stage, awaiting the updated cadastre. Delays were really just bad timing to coincide with the Zambian government objectives that required the cadastre to close and absubsequent back log to be worked. I'm pretty sure our licence areas will be high priority and I shar the view that the length of this extension would have been determined with some level of engagement with the government on timescales.

Doesn't mean I'm 100% certain it'll be closed by the end of the 13 business days but I sure it was expected to be and if it isn't then I don't see it being long.

I think we may well get the confirmation this time, but if not I won't panic captain mannering.

Atb

When I say 'they'll want to get a move on this year.'

I mean sooner than later, rather than their being a question in my mind that they wouldn't drill this year. Just for clarity.

I suspect they will announce JV and enlarged area now within the exclusivity, hopefully drill plans but not sure on that. Although as youve all said I certainly think they'll have a firm idea of the drill plan, priority areas, spends and hopefully collar locations.

Not long now and even if the JV doesn't have drill plans, I'd anticipate they'll want to get a move on this year.
Whatever they do will, IMO, will be significantly more than ARCM would have spent alone and they'll catch up and overtake any progress ARCM would have made during the delayed JV period.

Atb

Hi battery, that's fine and of course I meant AA/ARCM JV drilling.

Atb

Battery, I think if the drill plans demonstrateva serious start to drilling this year then it will certainly be impactful to the shareprice. IMO.

Atb

Charts and individual certainly have their place. They can help in determining changing sentiment, support and resistance levels etc. Certainly a useful weapon to have in an investing ****nal, however what they are not, are crystal balls.

If someone relies solely on charts, or equally ignores the use of charts, they are looking through a very blurry short lens. Personally I believe you can use, and probably should use, both technical and fundamental research to help get significant returns as a PI.

In the case of PXC, what the chart can't tell you is what the BOD can, if you believe them. I do for what it's worth. A chart won't explain that financing is expected to be secured soon, or that it's delayed due to an obviously expected impact on bond markets due too rising inflation and interest rate hikes, or that other deals are on the way. It's can't tell you about the financial position of a junior company, potential dilution or the competence of a those on the BOD.

Investment strategies need to be holistic and take effort. Not just in terms of the research (technical and fundamental) but using strategies when building and/or closing a stock position.

That's my thoughts anyway.

Atb

14%

What is the spread and was the price rising on the other stocks? Yep hopefully you'll have your 13% back soon.... Very quiet here atm

Trucky, who have you qualified as the two cry babies please?

Glen,

You can't in specie transfer a non ISA stock into an ISA, unlike ISA to ISA transfers. So the sell and buy is open to market movements and spreads. If the provider executed the transactions timely, within their SLAs, I doubt they'll be able to do anything.
KAVs liquidity is very low ATM and therefore small trades move the needle more etc

Atb

Loggypunts,

Each to their own but this RNS is an update to pre Easter op RNS.
The situation has been assessed by the company and advisors and they are now in a CVL.
It's a material change and this will have also materially impacted the risk to shareholders.

While I think the overal pathway hasn't changed the situation (IMO) based on this RNS has changed. If it hadn't, they wouldn't have said so in the RNS.

This RNS shows a progression of the situation.

The shares being cancelled was just a bad phrasing on my part, of course it's the listing. I can see what your saying about a race to the exit if they did un suspend, but tbh that was always extremely unlikely IMO.

Ive no reason to bun fight. I'm just saying it's not a case that nothing has changed. The CVL announcement following thevlast update, the increased risk to value realisation and the cancellation of the listing is a change.

Atb

Know0 I'm not sure how you can say that nothing has changed...

The RNS states the changes....
1. There has been a Material Adverse Change ("MAC") for the purposes of the Companies Creditors Arrangement Act ("CCAA") process
2. As a result of the 'MAC' no further funding will be made available under the DIP (albeit they will find remainder of CCAA process).
3. The risk of insolvency and value realisation has changed; 'it now remains very uncertain whether Rambler will derive any value from the CCAA process.'
4. As of 6th April, following independent advice they're ..'now insolvent and resolved that the only feasible course of action is to place the Company into a Creditors Voluntary Liquidation ("CVL")'
5. While suspected by some it has been confirmed that the shares will be cancelled at the end of the 6 month suspension period.

I can agree it's following the same path as I and others suspected, but today's RNS does have material changes within it. That can't be questioned really.

It's changed.
Atb

Tbh Ive always believed it would end in SISP then delist.
It's incredibly unlikely shareholders will get anything and Creditors may get money but potentially not all.
No harm in remaining hopeful but I'd expect the worst tbh. I think lizzo had finished vocal warm up and had just been handed the mic..

Yep, sadly. all the best to existing holders here.
Take care all.

I agree with you conceptually moneymaker but I think the mcap isn't too high presently for the assets and their potential. That's not to say it can't drop, but I think £7m isn't a huge mcap for what KAV have to go at..

Atb

Yes you're right battery. I think it's a safer bet that this extension can be inferred and interpreted as being the last. However no certainty exists.

Tbh, I expect an RNS within the extension date. As I'm sure many do. They will have (IMO) consulted the ministry before establishing this timescale and built in fat.

Atb