Member Info for Fukurokuju79

Fulmar, possibly it will be sooner. I'm open to the med/long term expectations as much as the shorter term.
Atb

Yes sta60.
I personally believe this deal with AA is better than those you've referenced and the best I've seen a junior make, at this stage.
Sentiment is key in junior mining companies/stocks. If anyone was hesitant that ARCM would make a T1 discovery then that's gone when AA take the helm.
Additionally the exploration is put on steroids and no cash burn for exploration in Zambia for ARCM. The staged cash payments are a fantastic part of this deal.

Many will buy and sell along the way, based on their own views, strategies and expectations.
I wont be aiming for the top price, sometimes you get it, sometimes not. Instead I focus on market cap of stocks in sectors or markets with a disruptive edge. These tend to get the herd mentality (eventually) and true value gets thrown out the window. When I believe ARCM is at a point that there is only a risked 1x, 2x, 3x left then I'll invest in other stocks that have 10x, 15x + potential.
That's just my personal preference and strategy. I don't AIM (pun intended) to get wed to a company. Sometimes hold a day, a week, a month and in the case of ARCM many years.
Originally invested in Ortac. Sold. Then repositioned again after the Zambian assets acquisition(s).

While I believe the signing will drive interest and increase the SP, it's what follows that I think delivers the significant gains for shareholders. Copper seems the most stable commodity in the future of electrification, and has had insufficient expenditure. I expect to hold for a further couple of years personally, but again opinions are fluid and should be continually assessed.

On that basis I personally only ever hold enough stocks that I can actively assess and manage. Diversification is useful and a consideration but is largely overrated to protect financial advisors. If I wanted 20 stocks in a sector(s) there is no way an individual can meaningfully actively manage that and ultimately you may as well buy into a mutual fund. (Slightly off topic)

But my point being, we're all different. Investing is an individual approach.

Atb everyone have a good Sunday.

Verger blue as I've said before junior explorers don't get valued by the market based on current value. The market rarely get valuations right as the participants don't focus on that.

Also it depends in what timeframe you're thinking. When. The value of the company will be discounted against future potential. When AA sign that's a significant derisking event to a commercial discovery. Both in terms of capital expenditure, likelihood and time required to make a discovery.
When the drill plans are released and drilling starts is also critical and then the key unlocked to value is the drill outcomes.
What you need to determine, for yourself really, is what value is put on a tier one deposit and what would 30% or a little under be determined fair value to ARC. What are. The chances of this sort of discovery and what discount to that would seem appropriate at this stage.
If you feel the chances of discovery are low, or the discount to future potential is too low then that's fair enough.
Personally I'm more than comfortable at this price and I believe as momentum builds the market is more likely to overvalue than undervalue ARCM.
Investing is an individual skill and you should only listen to yourself.
IMO the ground in the JV is highly exciting and I believe they have at least one tier one. I. Think the shareprice here over the coming 2 years will develop very well. But that's just me.

Atb

Besides we're an exploration company, on AIM, not a blue chip. I don't believe for a second that you really think the market buys these stocks on the basis of current value. They buy into exploration companies, and other sectors such as tech, on the basis of potential future value.

This JV (once signed) has hugely derisked ARCM and simultaneously improved the probability and decreased the time required to one of more significant discoveries.

The assets history and the commitment shown by AA to make such a cracker of a deal with ARCM over the assets future / potential tells a story even you can't deny.

Atb

To be fair Ella you didn't think they would get a deal, then they did, and its a corker.
Whatever value the market put on the deal that was never to be (apparently) will almost certainly not be based on true value.
Market participants aren't very accurate arbiters of true value.
Just look at most stocks and you'll see that. GGP being a very good example in relation to ARCM.
However many many more exist.

Ultimately we've got a world class JV with a world class partner. When people look for a stock and story within the copper space as the metal deficits sink in I know where I'd put my cash.

I agree to a point that my expectations are cautious on the share price after signing, especially given the deal is known information already. However it will be the start of a new era and with AA at the helm I'm happy to be sat on the train as a passenger.

I predict a few Choo choos ahead and true value will be largely irrelevant.

Imo
Atb

Well chances of a tier one are significantly more likely with AA and their exploration spend commitments. It'll dwarf what ARCM would have spent over same period tbh and minimise or eliminate dilution with the staged cash payments.

I think the market will attribute a strong value too ARCM in the next year or two. I've certainly seen many examples where companies have been valued with less significant deals and potential than ARCM.

Atb

I think the main value will be on drill plans, drill start and subsequent results. Albeit I anticipate more interest and shareprice should see a rise on signing.

Remains a medium term hold for the main gains that are possible. When it gets to a point that the returns are only a couple bags is when I will move on. Miles away from that ATM IMO.

Atb

Yes metalhead. Encouraging and it was handy they managed to negotiate core access with the diamond prospectors..
It's seems a significantly large area now. Clearly at that depth, IMO, they'll need some very strong grades for it to be commercial. Still happy with progress and the potential there though.

They've a lot to go at this year and a lot of potential across the land portfolio.

I'm still not too sold on strategically needing another area, in another jurisdiction, for the reasons I've said before. However, I remain open minded until I've seen the specifics.

StanAccy come back in 2025 and let's discuss bank balances then. You may be right, but if KAV prove anything over their significant land holdings you may well regret it yourself.

If you're comfortable with your decision to sell that's fair enough. No one but you needs to be comfortable with what your decisions are. The same applies here, as should the respect towards those who hold a different view to you.

Atb everyone

They've probably allowed some fat into the extension time as well.

It is what it is. IMO it's an outstanding deal with a few dependencies out their control. AA have been all the data to get sinking the money into the ground as soon as possible..

Also when it's announced the AA areas under new applications are likely to be formed into the JV as we've previously discussed here.

Atb

Whatever works for each person really though isn't it..

I've traded days stocks, swing traded slightly longer and held years on others. Sometimes tranches, sometimes all. It's more about circumstances and preference than allbin or all out.

That said if I do trade I normally aim for a larger % return as I've learnt that making 10% doesn't really stack up when dipping in and out of lower liquid stocks with wider spreads.
However, as I say, each to their own.

Atb everyone.

Last time they announced 7th Feb at 7am, so thr day before the extension end date if 8th Feb.
That would have been today in relation to the extension deadline of tomorrow.

So it may get extended, dependant on the cadastre, and potentially final signatures following requisite approvals, but the fact we didn't get an RNS signals to me that the contractual / legal / structural elements are likely completed. On the basis they are holding out to notify the market later in the hope/anticipation the approvals are issued or clarification of timescales to factor in and provide a meaningful extension date.

Atb

I've tranches in twice in the last week. 22p and 19p. I'd like to add more but only on a return from other when/if they materialise.

22m mcap here is just too attractive.

Atb

Yes very to the point RNS.
Also an opportunity to advise on AA JV so you'd assume they're still gunning for the timescales.

Have to wait and see what the next red dot brings. Won't be long!

Atb

Obv mean riverfort....my predictive text thinks we're talking veg boxes

Yes exactly, the 2 mill warrants is only 1.6% and only if price 2x today.

Worse and unlikely case if PXC don't payback within 3 months, which they have done twice previously and clearly think they can again, is that Riverford convert the whole loan. If you convert loan dollars to GBP and then assume a strike price (10% below vwap) then that may be a further 8 million shares or so against the 123million in issue.
However I don't think it's likely PXC won't pay back and / or Riverford would convert the entire loan principle though tbh.

PXC are trying to pull off bond issuance in a relatively bad bond and financial market. They are doing this with the intention of avoiding huge dilution to shareholders when raising their capex.
I'm not sure how anyone can question their intention to avoid dilution compared to most listed small/micro cap stocks.

If they pull it off then fair play to them. They seem confident ATM and we will all have to wait and see.

Atb

Trek. Largely agree.

Tranching, patience and not trading emotionally are the three critical tools every high risk investor should use in their strategy.

I'm happy to buy more today as I see it as an opportunity but intend to add more over time.

Atb

English patient, IMO at this stage they haven't failed to sell the bonds. They remain confident, and I believe them.

It was fairly obvious that interest rate hikes influence bond markets, as higher and rising interest rates devalue lower coupon bonds. There was and is always a risk that the bonds won't complete but they've given a lot of detail on the bonds today to show they've worked out a complex deal.

Essentially given the changes in the financial markets and the impact on bonds they've had to renegotiate, which has delayed.

The loan today is essentially good risk management and I trust the BOD here when they say they remain confident. Clearly never any guarantees until formalised.

After all, risk is what gives earlier stage investors the opportunities of greater gains. Sadly we can't have our cake and eat it. Doesn't work that way.

Personally I've decided to liquidate another position to add here. Will rebuy the other with profits from elsewhere in coming weeks.

Atb

avfornal meant to be 'a formal'
Caviating meant to be 'caveating'

...phat phingers.
Great entry here today for people. If I had untied capital I'd add a load more

Atb

ID78
Regarding your question.

>>'The warrants (assuming the SP does take off) are then a good price for the lender in the future.

Meanwhile they probably hope to repay early and avoid the shares being issued?'<<

Firstly the caveat on the completion of the bonds is common. Their are no guarantees, and so you'll see that statement on most RNS' that involve avfornal transaction that hasn't been concluded. So it's not confidence but just standard caviating.

Regarding your issuance of shares question. Basically if the short term loan is paid within the time period, without extension, then Riverford can't convert any of the loan amount.

The warrants, typically used as a sweetner to complete a deal will still be held by Riverford. However as the strike price is much higher as Trek says most here, or all who buy now will be significantly in the money by the point. It's still a valuable 840k sweeter to Riverford though.

Atb

Yeah does a bit on face value, especially now the cumulative is as good as 10%, but strike prices are higher than current market price.
Not sure what they take salary wise off hand I'd need to check before making a proper determination.