Member Info for Fukurokuju79

Your not you're

FKC it's interesting you're enthusiasm for PWB given you voted against his re election on the board.

Not a huge fan of spin offs, pros and cons, but I'd prefer to keep it in house if results are as expected.

Worse would be an early sell off for me. I'd rather we progressed ourselves a bit more then if needed JV it when decent terms are more likely.

Atb

Sorry, I meant Steve has a point.

I'm okay with the share pricebfor now. Purple has a solid point though default is certainly not on the cards at all.

The question is simply do they pay off or is the conversion option triggered. I've shared my strategic option in my earlier post.

No need to be so derogatory, serves no purpose. Also can often come back to bite you when share prices don't stay low 😜

Atb

Quite possible yes.

Not sure.

They have said they have sufficient cash to pay back Riverfort and cover operational costs until end 2024. They have also said it was their intention to repay the loan back ahead of any conversion.

So the clear direction of travel seems they intend(ed) to do exactly that. However they also said while they have the above cash to cover them they want to do more than just be operationally open, which is where (obviously) the bond money for capex comes in.

Given they've said the above and have consistently said they want to avoid dilution (or words to that effect), they may well just pay the Riverfort back with current cash.

It depends on how close and confident the bond raising is and what impact paying back the loan would have on their roadmap until that happens.

Of course another approach could be, and possibly I'd do if it were me, is that they pay back Riverfort but seek approval at the AGM for headroom to allot shares this year as a contingency if the bond takes more time.

This seems to be a sensible approach that aligns to their original intentions they've committed to shareholders. Nothing stopping them paying back and then borrowing again on similar terms or in the open market.

Have to wait and see.

Atb

Not sure it's a distraction as it's obviously relevant to ARCM but in the context of importance it's low on my list for this investment and doesn't enter the list of why Im invested.

Atb

Must admit when I initially looked into Tingo I felt it all seemed a bit too good. However given its not a personal investment of mine, that it's not a reason I invested in ARCM and it's a non core investment of ARCM I wasn't inclined to dig very deep.

That said, the research note (link provided in previous post) doesn't shine a very good light on them to say the least, lol.

I do find the situation interesting and will probably read up on what comes next.

Not all short attacks are warranted, but some of the specific points read very badly on face value. I found the burford capital short attack about 4 years ago by Muddy Waters interesting too, at the time. Although I didnt feel that had much legs and so I did quite well on that as I bought and sold BUR following the over reaction.

The research note on Tingo reads a lot worse and I wouldn't try and trade that one.

Burford were very impressive at dealing with that short but I'm going off topic.

On a more important note. AA deal conditions precedent should be finalising very soon. The remaining few regulatory conditions were expected to be completed shortly 🤞🏻

Drillers in place and the dry season awaits AA.

Atb

Not sure what we have. I think when we last discussed it we currently had 3m tmna shares that would be less after the RTO into TIO as they regretted listed on OTC and wanted to be NASDAQ.

The drop today (on both TIO/tmna) is linked to a short attack (not got around to reading it yet) by Hindenburg Research.

https://hindenburgresearch.com/tingo/

Hi Legalwolf,

I believe they went back to the KSZ as the assay results were delayed at the SA lab due to backlogs and clearly they have a key target to go at already (that many of us shareholders have shared are also keen to see drilled). After they get the Ditau results they'll need to be interpreted by Dr Mumin before releasing, unless they really have struck anything significant (be a nice surprise but I'm not expecting that).

I believe Ben's excitement on Ditau isn't t so much on the basis of expectation in the Ditau assays revealing an economic discovery at this stage. I believe it's more around the seeing if the recent results support the theory of the lode gold system concept and any continuity between the holes i.e between those drilled by KAV and the core of the external companies abandoned hole they managed to get access to. Clearly this will all take a little while to assimilate and so they've gone at the KSZ target that's there and waiting.

It's my understanding that purebond aren't trying to interfere on an operational level and so on that basis the drill decisions will be made by KAV, based on outcomes that will feed into the priorities.

If the KSZ hit something significant then that will clearly remain the priority. If more technical work is needed, for example they don't hit massive sulphides at the KSZ, then it could be karakubis or Ditau next.

In short I don't believe their are any firm commitments in terms of drill plans until more is known on KSZ campaign and outcome and the Ditau data etc.

I'm sure we'll know more in a month or two of the likely direction.

Atb

If the assays are of material information they can't be held back, and I don't think they would. As JPbsays they aren't likely to be of hugely significant interest from a commercial perspective but will feed into the broader understanding. Data, modelling and subsequent drill planning etc.

I assume the question.... 'This 1p sale is not just about the KSZ, but about all of the projects?'... Is more a statement positioned as a rhetorical question given the investment is on the open market at plc level.

Atb

I think it's a new and innovative strategy little known to some so keep it on the low down, but it goes by communication and public relations 🤫

....'Because if I'm being honest, I'm half expecting that we'll be told that B1 is actually a polo mint and we've drilled through the middle this time'.....

😂😂

It's not an eSports stock....they're closing that vertical down

Following the snippet of the recent interview released on twitter this morning by ARC I thought it was worth resharing the link to the whole interview.

https://youtu.be/Z7vLERRqpu4

It's a good listen if you haven't already.

Atb

Good RNS on the ATS.

I found the context useful and I'm sure more on the economics will come, clearly more efficient.

Liked this ....is forward thinking.

"I would also like to confirm that Phoenix has purchased all of the assets from AuRIC following its closure, including the analytical equipment and supplies necessary for the onsite laboratory that will service the Empire Mine once it is in operation. The purchase of these laboratory assets will prove most cost effective, saving up to three times as much as the purchase of new equipment, which is significant in light of the current market.'

Atb

Disclosure request is an odd one but... - KAV shareholder only (PI), not paid, not connected to anyone at KAV and NO IM NOT BEN. Held KAV shares for several years at least back when only one or two of us ever posted.

The warrant bank would have been great had the shareprice been higher for them to be realisticly exercisable. Some of the reasons for the drop are macro, and it's fair to say also KAV are accountable too.

I certainly think sentiment is low and adversely impacting existing shareholders, and prospective shareholders.

The current drill campaign will be key to 'hopefully' change that sentiment.

Whatever happens I'm really keen to understand what's down there. Obviously hoping for the best, but no one has a clue until we hit the target(s).

We're all here for what may be and for the prospectivity of the licences so🤞🏻

Atb

[quote] 'Still not worth investing in, for my money, but IMHO and GLTAH. Anyone new, DYOR and look to the historical flip-flopping between dubious projects and changig goal posts...' [quote]

Fair enough. Each to their own.

As bozi has said there is an additional geological risk with KAV. It makes exploration far more complex given the Kalahari sand cover that hides the surface geology, which most have available to them when exploring.

Clearly this means, and we have to accept, that the modelling by KAV can only use the techniques they have available to them and is therefore more exposed to the requirement of modelling assumptions, compared to others that can couple that geophys with the ability to also explore the surface.

Despite the sands they've found a highly prospective area and successfully drilled it previously through challenging conditions . This was very encouraging for me personally.

If the campaign was a complete dud I would probably have closed out my investment to some degree and monitored. The DHEM was fundamental for me personally when evaluating my own view on what many see as a failed campaign.

While no one can guarantee what's there, and the risk is still alive, it has certainly refined the modelling ahead of this campaign. That is why I personally wanted the drilling to return to the KSZ.

If they hit massive sulphides those taking the risk now will (IMO) be rewarded. Some may wait until after the drill to enter, with reduced risk and reduced reward. Some won't want to invest at all.

It's on this basis that while I agree with the anti dilution sentiment many have, I personally see it as a necessary evil as a hedge against this second KSZ drill campaign and the resilience of KAV.

In the event of a negative or inconclusive outcome, from a risk management perspective, I'd rather know the KAV shareprice is largely underpinned/supported at around the current market price.

However if it is successful then I'll vote against the second part of the raise and be rewarded for holding.

Not every stock is for everyone. We all have our own right to assess the situation. Despite what many say I don't 'toe the line' with what KAV say. I like to think with an open unbias mind and the above is my own view after evaluating the situation.

Clearly dilution avoidance would be preferred and it's consideration must be a significant part of any investment decision. That said if that was my main driver I wouldn't have invested in a junior explorer, with a massive land package covered by a (insert expletive) ton of sand.

Atb

I don't think it's fair to say they discovered nothing. They haven't made a discovery yet, is true.

They drilled the high siemens target that turned out to be two targets l, as confirmed by the DHEM. While it wasnt the discovery drill that was hoped for it's provided very valuable information about the target(s).

This is largely why many (myself included) wanted Kavango to crack on to a second drill campaign into the anomalies at the KSZ, after reworling their models with the extra information obtained from the first drill campaign.

If they hit nothing from this current campaign then is the time I'll personally reconsider my investment, either entirely or in part.

Atb