Member Info for fleccy

Trump's live on CNBC now and says they're talking to someone important about reaching a deal, but wont say who they're speaking to, the IRGC say they're not in talks. I wonder who's pretending to be in charge in Iran, that Trump says they're talking to? They've probably got through to a plumber living on the edge of Tehran, whose telephone still works.

I doubt this is over, because Trump will have to capitulate big time to Iran's demands, with reference to lifting of sanctions, reparation's/unfreezing of withheld money and solid guarantee's that Iran will never be attacked again. Iran are showing no sign of backing down, how will Trump deal with Iran's terms?

Trump is a master market manipulator, because he appears to make it up as he goes along; Beware the Trump Taco Tweet Trade. I think I believe the IRGC statement rather than Trump's Truth Social fiction.

Zanab, I don't disagree, but the move to renewables reducing demand for oil is probably a good few years in the future.

I'm confused that Oil isn't a lot higher than it is, I wonder what hidden strings the US is pulling to hold prices down.

Are creeping up again. Once the market loses hope of a TACO, Oil could see big rises in short order. It seems escalation is currently the only game in town.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Stanley the Iranians wont give in, because they know that Israel want to end Iran anyway. The Iranians will just take the rest of the Gulf with them, not because they have anything against the other Gulf states, they just know it will also destroy US geopolitical dominance in the entire Middle East. The rest of the Gulf states might blame Iran for striking their territory, but the US and Israel will also equally be blamed for starting the war; Iran warned everyone what they'd do if their regime was threatened. All this is weakening Israel and the US, the destruction of Iran wont leave the US and Israel unscathed.

One thing this war will achieve, is that it will cause a Global recession and probably spell the end of Trump. Future US presidents will also shy away from helping Israel, since Israel is quickly accelerating its status as a pariah state; Iran might be finished off, as you put it, but it will also irreparably damage US relations in the region and raise future criticism of Israel from the rest of the world. If Israel think they can go it alone in the future, good luck to them.

Just so you know Stanley, I have no vested interest in Iran, or Israel, I'm just giving my opinion as an external observer. I also have no religious views, although on paper I'm CofE I consider the bible a fairy tail. I'm not saying I don't believe there may be a higher intelligence in the universe, but it isn't anything tangible and is likely embedded at the quantum level in everything, if it exists at all.

Clearly this is getting worse with no end in site, the US can't walk away without losing face and the Iranians have dug in and just awaiting the US's next mistake. The rhetoric from Donald Trump suggest he's under more pressure with each passing day and doesn't know what to do.

I believe Iran has hit back saying they'll attack desalination plants throughout the region if the US attacks power infrastructure. Any escalatory strikes Trump decides on, it appears the Iranians have a military response for. Clearly things aren't going the way Donald thought it would, but it's no surprise to anyone else who've watched this unfold.

It's a strange state of affairs in Iran, the US doesn't appear to know who's in charge. I suspect that no individual is in control of the country, there are likely high ranking commanders in the IRGC who are actually running the country, with a clear command structure/hierarchy so that any commander who's taken out can be replaced immediately. Mojtaba Khamenei may be the figurehead to replace his dad, as the new supreme leader, but it's likely the IRGC are the ones running the country, possibly with a committee based strategic decision process. Each commander probably has full tactical control over their individual sphere of military influence, acting independently as required and discussing strategy as and when they talk. Basically the IRGC are possibly operating as individual cells and regularly talking strategy amongst each other.

Robleo, I've already checked out the link to Gordon Aitken's article and discussed it earlier in this thread.

I looked at standard life, but it appears more speculative than L&G. If I was to purely chase yield, I'd probably choose L&G in preference to Standard Life.

"America First!!! 3 more weeks of using up huge stocks of bombs and missiles to pound Iranian military and industrial complexes with the US heavy bomber fleet and it's job done as far as Trump is concerned...He's right to walk away and let other countries like China, UK, Japan and Europe to sort out the rest"

If that's the case Stanley, would you agree that the Gulf states would also be right in kicking the US out of the bases in their territory then? I mean if the US causes a 5h1tstorm and then walks away, leaving others to clean up the resulting mess, wouldn't it be easier to remove themselves as a target by removing the US presence on their soil, or maybe sand in their cases. Maybe they could invite China to give them the protection the US can't?

I don't think you've thought this through Stanley.

I have thought about L&G, but I'm not sure the dividend is as well covered as Aviva and Admiral. I'm looking for both dividend and capital safety. Although L&G is probably fine, I'm shying away from the slightly elevated risk. Aviva and Admiral are both forecast to have a yield above 6%, over 2026, both relatively good yielding stocks. I wont deny L&G's juicy dividend yield is very tempting.

Ok, I've checked it out and used AI to analyse Gordon's view on this:

"In view of Gordon Aitken's comments, is Aviva still the best pic

Based on Gordon Aitken’s analysis, Aviva remains a top pick among UK insurers due to strong operating momentum, dividend safety, and efficient capital deployment, outperforming Legal & General on recent Solvency II return on equity metrics. While defending the asset quality of peers like Legal & General against private credit risk concerns, Aitken highlights Aviva's 21.2% Solvency II RoE as a key indicator of superior management execution. Read the full analysis at Gordon Aitken's Substack"

"is the Bank of America correct in adding Aviva and L&G to their short basket

Bank of America’s short recommendation for Aviva and L&G, based on perceived private credit risks and overvaluation compared to US peers, was controversial and reportedly withdrawn on 19 March 2026 due to "errors of fact". While the bear case highlighted potential exposure to private credit shocks, opposing analysis from firms like UBS indicates strong capital resilience and fundamental strength for UK insurers, particularly Aviva. For details on the withdrawal of this recommendation, read more at OnInvest"

"so have the bank of america removed aviva and L&G from their short basket, due to errors of fact, or not?

Bank of America withdrew its recommendation to short a basket of European financial stocks, including Aviva and Legal & General, on March 19, 2026, citing factual inaccuracies and apologizing to the firms involved. The original report, which predicted a 30% downside due to private credit risks, was retracted shortly after release following immediate industry pushback. For more details, visit OnInvest"

According to what I've read Aviva is safer than L&G, so I'm thinking about a mix of Aviva and Admiral should I decide to invest in the insurance sector.

I haven't, but I'll check it out.

I'm thinking about investing in Aviva, but some of the issues affecting the Private Credit market have me concerned. Aviva, like other insurance companies, have chased high yield available from investing in Private Credit. Aviva apparently invests alongside Apollo Global Management, StepStone Group, KKR and others. Does anyone have any views on the indirect impacts of the Iran war on private credit and the impact this might have on Aviva?

I've just logged in and had a read through this thread, Trump does talk rubbish. Lets imagine Trump is saying to others, ok I've had enough, the US doesn't get oil through the Strait of Hormuz so it's other countries problem to open and police it; It's almost child like logic. The reason Trump logic doesn't work is that the Price of Oil is set globally, so the US is still on the hook if the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open should the US walk away, US drivers will still get hammered at the pump and it will cause inflation in the US as well as everywhere else. Clearly the reason Trump is trying to wash his hands of the Strait is because his military commanders have told him it's a kill zone and there's little protection for warships as well as tankers, which everyone else will have figured out too. Trump doesn't want to risk his own assets, or at the very least he wants to drag others into the war with him.

I agree, it's one of the reasons I'm looking at miners. I think the current oil and gas crisis will hasten the move to electrification. I already have solar, battery and a heat pump. The reason I've moved to electrification is due to the massive hike in energy prices back in 2022 and I don't regret the move. My gas meter has been removed and I'll likely go for an EV when my current Diesel car goes. I like the idea of companies that might benefit from this transformation, I'm just not sure a move into miners is sensible until the fallout from the Iran war starts to subside, time will tell.

"Rumours the US will be taking over Kharg Island"

Stanley back in early February I posted this, well before the start of the war:

"fleccy

Posts: 13,605

Price: 478.05

No Opinion

RE: Bp

7 Feb 2026 19:20

"Short term I think Trump is hitting the pressure points to force Iran into positive moves as Iran cannot afford more of what took place last summer"

If the Iran regime fears it faces an existential threat from the US and Israel, it may decide the best way to hurt US interests is to target Middle East Oil infrastructure. If you corner a wounded animal it'll lash out in all directions, since it has nothing to lose. Imagine what would happen to the Oil price if Iran start blowing up Oil facilities in Saudi, UAE, Iraq and elsewhere, the Oil price would likely go stratospheric and Oil company share prices with it lol. It's a possibility if they thought their days were numbered anyway and they couldn't hurt the US directly, just burn the Oil house down"

Clearly if an average person like me could see how Iran would respond way back on the 7th February, you'd think Trump's advisors would have told him something along the same lines.

If the US manages to take over Kharg Island, the Iranians lose their economic "Trump" card and if Trump thinks Iran will be forced to back down, I have an different view. Should the US take Kharg Island, with the Iranian regime losing control of the Oil, I'd postulate that the Iranians will blow up the Kharg Oil facilities themselves rather than buckling to US pressure. If an animal's leg is caught in a trap and there's no good way of freeing itself, the animal will chew its own leg off in order to escape. Under these circumstances it wouldn't surprise me if the Iranians blow up Kharg themselves and launch a massive barrage of missiles and drones at other Oil facilities throughout the Gulf.