Member Info for fleccy

Thursday 2nd April is the last opportunity to trade FTSE stocks, before Trump's 6th April Iran deadline is met, it'll be interesting to watch market price action over the next 3 days. Will Trump TACO, or follow through on his threat? Will Thursday be an opportunity to buy, sell, will the market collapse or rally on Tuesday 7th April? Decisions, decisions.

"Fleecy what are you saying ? This over valued? Where do think it should sit?"

I'm not suggesting anything, just making an observation. The buybacks, as a percentage of the daily volume's, are more than you'd expect for the 26th and 27th March. I suspect they wont be able to maintain such a high percentage for too long without drawing scrutiny.

Citi again exceeded the day safe harbour limit on the 27th March, this must be supporting the share price. I'm not sure they can keep up the daily level of 3,895,000 shares purchased, with total daily volumes less than 2/3 higher than buyback volume, without coming under scrutiny. Volume percentages at this level must be lifting the price.

Stanley the long term prospects for the Oil price is irrelevant in the present circumstances. The far East is suffering a supply shock, with various changes being implemented to conserve Oil, like 4 day weeks and working from home where possible. Personally I believe this will lead to demand destruction a long way down the road, but in the meantime I'm happy to see my remaining shares benefiting for BP's share price climb.

"how will the iran war affect Rio Tinto's production

The ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel (as of March 2026) is impacting Rio Tinto primarily through aluminium market volatility, increased operating costs, and global supply chain disruptions.

1. Aluminium Supply and Pricing Impact

Japanese Premium Hikes: Rio Tinto significantly increased its quarterly aluminium premium for Japanese buyers to $350 per tonne for the April–June 2026 period. This 79% rise from the previous quarter followed a brief suspension of negotiations as the company assessed the war's impact on metal prices.

Regional Production Loss: The conflict has forced production cuts in the Middle East, which normally accounts for about 9% of global aluminium output. Strikes have reportedly damaged major regional facilities like Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain.

Shift to Rio Tinto Assets: As a top global supplier with smelters in Canada and Australia, Rio Tinto is positioned to fill supply gaps, though high premiums reflect the extreme tightness in the global market.

Bloomberg.com

Bloomberg.com

+4

2. Operational Costs and Logistics

Fuel and Energy Inflation: Global oil prices have surged past $100–$115 per barrel due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For a diesel-intensive miner like Rio Tinto, this translates to higher operating expenses for extraction and hauling.

Shipping Disruptions: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has halted approximately 20–25% of global seaborne oil and gas trade. This forces the rerouting of industrial inputs around the Cape of Good Hope, leading to longer lead times and higher marine insurance premiums.

Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Disruptions extend to critical mining reagents like sulphur (a byproduct of oil refining), which is essential for processing other metals like copper and nickel.

Mining Technology

Mining Technology

+4

3. Broader Production Outlook

Pilbara Operations Resiliency: Despite geopolitical tensions, Rio Tinto's core iron ore shipments from the Pilbara (Western Australia) remain on track. As of March 30, 2026, the company maintained its annual guidance of 323–338 million tonnes, having recently recovered from local cyclone-related port closures.

Market Sentiment: Rio Tinto’s stock has faced pressure as investors weigh flat earnings in its iron ore division against the broader "war premium" and global economic uncertainty"

"how do mining companies like rio tinto purchase fuel for plant?

Mining companies like Rio Tinto purchase fuel through a combination of high-volume commercial contracts, strategic partnerships with global energy producers, and increasing investments in self-generated supply for renewable alternatives.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto

+2

1. Strategic Commercial Partnerships

Direct Supply Contracts: They sign large-scale agreements with global energy companies to secure a steady flow of fuel. For example, Rio Tinto partnered with Neste and Viva Energy to supply 10 million litres of renewable diesel for its Pilbara operations.

Transitioning to Renewables: In North America, operations like the Boron and Kennecott mines have fully transitioned to renewable diesel through partnerships with suppliers like HF Sinclair.

Marine Fleet Fueling: They collaborate with majors like BP to trial and supply sustainable biofuels for their shipping fleets.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto

+3

2. Supply Chain and Logistics

Dedicated Infrastructure: Fuel is often shipped from international hubs (e.g., Singapore) directly to dedicated company terminals, such as the Parker Point fuel terminal in Dampier.

On-Site Blending and Storage: To manage costs and engine compatibility, companies may blend fuels portside before distributing them across their rail, marine, and mining equipment networks.

Third-Party Logistics: Specialist firms manage the complex "inbound" logistics of bringing fuel and spare parts onto remote mine sites.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto

+4

3. Vertical Integration and Self-Generation

Feedstock Development: To mitigate supply risks in immature markets like Australia, Rio Tinto is trialling "growing its own fuel" by farming Pongamia seeds for renewable diesel feedstock.

Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): For plant operations (smelters and refineries), they sign long-term PPAs to buy electricity from wind and solar farms at agreed prices, anchoring their energy costs to renewable sources rather than volatile fossil fuels.

Rio Tinto

Rio Tinto

+3

4. Procurement Standards

Sustainable Procurement Principles: All fuel purchases must align with strict ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) performance standards, focusing on carbon accountability and responsible sourcing.

Indigenous and Local Spend: A significant portion of their procurement budget is directed toward local and Indigenous-owned businesses, strengthening the community supply chain."

"The letter Я (Ya) is the 33rd and final letter of the Russian alphabet, also used in Ukrainian, Belarusian, and Bulgarian, representing the sound /ja/ (like "ya" in "yard"). It is a unique letter because it also acts as a word, meaning "I" in Russian, and looks like a horizontally flipped Latin "R""

Ok it appears he must be using a different editor to generate the text and then pasting it into here

I must admit that caught my eye so this is a little experiment:

using html coding &#1103

Simple copy and paste я

"Better with BHP in my long term opinion"

BHP still has the the possibility of increased payouts from the:

"BHP is currently embroiled in the Mariana dam disaster litigation, the largest group action in English legal history, involving over 600,000 claimants seeking up to £36 billion ($48 billion) in damages.

BBC

BBC

+1

Key Legal Developments (as of March 2026)

Liability Ruling: In November 2025, the London High Court found BHP strictly liable for the 2015 Fundão dam collapse in Brazil. The judge ruled that BHP's negligence and failure to act on technical warnings directly caused the disaster.

Appeal Status: In January 2026, the High Court refused BHP's application to appeal the liability judgment. BHP has indicated it will apply directly to the Court of Appeal to challenge this ruling.

Contempt Case Dismissed: On 16 March 2026, the Court of Appeal overturned a previous decision, ending contempt-of-court proceedings against BHP. Claimants had accused BHP of interfering with justice by funding parallel litigation in Brazil to block municipalities from suing in London.

Upcoming Damages Trial: A "stage two" trial to determine the quantum of compensation is scheduled to begin in April 2027. This phase will assess the physical extent of the disaster and quantify specific losses"

We'll get some insight in BP's share price direction this evening, when the Oil markets open.

I wonder what this will do to Oil and stock prices.

"Mohamad Elmasry, a professor of Media Studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, described the Houthis entering the US-Israeli war on Iran as “very significant”.

“We have seen over the past two and a half years that Houthis have significant power,” Elmasry told Al Jazeera.

“If they decided to move to shut down Bab al-Mandeb strait, the Red Sea and, ultimately, the Suez Canal, then we would have two major choke points [closed] along with the Strait of Hormuz,” he said"

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/28/yemens-houthis-claim-responsibility-for-a-missile-attack-on-israel-2

WTI closed over $100, Brent closed over $114

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

"Can you rerun the safe harbour calculation taking into account volumes on other exchanges

To determine if Aviva's buyback on 26 March 2026 exceeded the safe harbour limits when including other exchanges, we must analyze the volume data across all authorized venues: the London Stock Exchange (XLON) and Cboe Europe (CHIX/BATE).

1. Venues & Data Points

Under UK MAR, the 25% safe harbour limit is calculated per venue based on the Average Daily Volume (ADV) of the preceding 20 trading days.

London Stock Exchange

London Stock Exchange

Aviva's Purchase (26 March): Total of 3,725,490 shares.

Venues Used: London Stock Exchange (XLON) and Cboe Europe (CHIX and BATE).

Halifax

Halifax

2. 20-Day Total Market Volume (On-Book)

Using the 20 trading days leading up to 26 March (26 Feb – 25 Mar), the estimated on-book volume across these venues was approximately 223.25 million shares.

Yahoo Finance UK

Yahoo Finance UK

Venue Type Estimated 20-Day Total Vol Estimated 20-Day ADV 25% Safe Harbour Limit

Combined (LSE + Cboe) ~223,250,000 ~11,162,500 ~2,790,625

3. Rerunning the Calculation

Even when pooling the liquidity from Cboe with the LSE, the 25% safe harbour limit remains roughly 2.79 million shares.

Aviva's Purchase: 3,725,490 shares.

Result: The purchase exceeded the combined safe harbour limit by approximately 934,865 shares (roughly 33.5% over the threshold).

Why the limit was exceeded despite extra liquidity

Ex-Dividend Context: March 26 was Aviva's ex-dividend date. On these days, "natural" market volume often shifts as investors adjust positions around the 26.2p dividend.

ADV Lag: Because the safe harbour limit is a rolling average of the previous 20 days, it does not "shrink" instantly if the current day's market volume is low. On the 26th, on-book volume was only ~6.42 million shares—meaning Aviva's purchase was actually ~58% of that day's specific liquidity, even if it was "only" 33% over the 20-day average limit.

Broker Discretion: As Citigroup acts independently, they are permitted to exceed these limits. Doing so merely removes the "automatic" protection from market abuse claims, requiring the broker to prove through their trading algorithms that they did not artificially inflate the price"

"To determine if Aviva exceeded the safe harbour limit on 26 March 2026, we must calculate the 20-day Average Daily Volume (ADV) using only on-book trading data from the 20 trading days immediately preceding that date.

Based on the historical on-book volume data for Aviva (AV.), here is the precise calculation:

1. 20-Day On-Book Volume Data (26 Feb – 25 Mar)

Date On-Book Volume Date On-Book Volume

25 Mar 9,173,679 11 Mar 15,622,983

24 Mar 22,355,891 10 Mar 12,298,588

23 Mar 10,879,920 09 Mar 10,307,384

20 Mar 21,569,972 06 Mar 9,559,752

19 Mar 16,283,607 05 Mar 13,548,848

18 Mar 7,122,759 04 Mar 7,962,113

17 Mar 7,737,364 03 Mar 8,900,487

16 Mar 10,583,367 02 Mar 8,789,344

13 Mar 7,026,063 27 Feb 16,381,475

12 Mar 11,050,414 26 Feb 6,100,972

2. The Safe Harbour Calculation

Total 20-Day Volume: 223,254,982 shares

Average Daily Volume (ADV): 11,162,749 shares

25% Safe Harbour Limit: 2,790,687 shares

3. The Result for 26 March

On 26 March 2026, Aviva's regulatory filing confirmed they purchased 3,725,490 shares.

Conclusion: Aviva's volume exceeded the safe harbour limit by approximately 934,803 shares (or 33.5% above the limit)."

Just to add, it would be Citigroup on the hook not Aviva.

Yesterday the total On Book volume for Aviva was 6.42 Million shares traded, so a buyback volume of 3.7 Million shares is over 50% of the days trades and more than 25% over the safe harbour limit. I'm not saying they've done anything wrong, but companies have to be careful of the FCA initiating a market manipulation investigation, unless I'm misunderstanding something.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/AV./aviva-plc/trade-recap

Oil prices are climbing off the back of this:

"Three Chinese ships, including two owned by China’s biggest shipping company, were turned away from the Strait of Hormuz on Friday after attempting to exit the Persian Gulf, ship-tracking data showed"

https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-ships-fail-exit-strait-hormuz-11745736

Oil prices are climbing off the back of this:

"Three Chinese ships, including two owned by China’s biggest shipping company, were turned away from the Strait of Hormuz on Friday after attempting to exit the Persian Gulf, ship-tracking data showed"

https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-ships-fail-exit-strait-hormuz-11745736

Are currently climbing as the weekend close approaches, but the stocks I'm currently watching appear to be acting contrary to what I'd expect and I'm unsure how the market will move. As the day progresses, assuming the oil price continues to trend upward I'd expect BP's share price to recover some ground and other sectors to see further downward momentum, but just like DT the market's are crazy these days.