Member Info for fleccy

11 hours to go:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1izBgcMorYHjFMVoYaPq_qInecOzSUgH_fMoA992mlXU/edit?gid=0#gid=0

You can thank the Buybacks for that:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSFzlU7UMjm0pSGJJGhFwkllG3Se8g1naKstHKS3tWkxQ9166zD6JfqF-hOF5KOT9azcZ1DHYlI2BJz/pubchart?oid=509774479&format=interactive

Maybe, I'm currently awaiting the market waking up and smelling the coffee. I have some target stocks that are currently going the wrong way, time will tell how things will unfold over the next week.

Anyone else find the current risk-on sector rises confusing? We're around 15 hours from Trump's deadline with the threat of escalation, yet various non defensive sectors are climbing, maybe the market see's something I'm missing.

17 hours to Iranmaggedon

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1izBgcMorYHjFMVoYaPq_qInecOzSUgH_fMoA992mlXU/edit?usp=sharing

Giantsquid come back when you've researched the global oil market and the effect it has on "Gas" prices in the US. Then research the effect of the blockade on shipments of Urea and the effect rising fertiliser and fuel price rises are having on US farmers. The lack of Helium is having an effect on things like chip manufacturing, refining certain metals, MRI scanners and helium balloons, US clowns are up in arms about that one lol, I wonder if the king of clowns realises this?

Iran would be stupid to agree a ceasefire that involved reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A 45 day ceasefire would allow massive numbers of tankers to stream through the Strait and give massive relief to the Oil markets; In the meantime Israel would restock with interceptors and there'd be nothing to stop the US and Israel resuming attacks at the end of the ceasefire period. It stands to reason that the Iranian restrictions through the Strait are putting massive pressure on the Global economy and indirectly on the US administration, so thy have no incentive for a "temporary" ceasefire. Iran are playing the long game, they're aiming to ensure that they inflict as much pain on the US as possible, that way there's less chance of the US starting again in the future.

It's just a joke video.

This is bad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoUINYa7In8

Crude $114.9

Brent $111.4

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Will Trump follow through on his threat?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1izBgcMorYHjFMVoYaPq_qInecOzSUgH_fMoA992mlXU/edit?usp=sharing

"Trump says Iran has 48 hours to make deal"

And Israel say they're just awaiting a heads up from Trump to join in attacking power and water infrastructure.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/4/trump-says-iran-has-48-hours-to-make-deal-as-search-for-us-pilot-continues

"No one wants only Iranian oil infrastructure to be un damaged at the end of it all( except maybe China and a couple of others)"

Actually Kharg Island going offline would remove about 2 million barrels of oil a day; It would be a significant loss of oil and push oil prices up significantly, not just because of the amount of lost oil but because Iran could respond by attacking other Gulf state facilities and filling the Gulf with mines.

Apparently Trump is staying at the Whitehouse over this Easter Weekend, which is unusual apparently. Is it because of the downed F15, or are they planning some sort of ground action? Or has Melania kicked him out of the bedroom 🤫

Imminent apparently:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFb_hb_npV4

Any opinions on how the Hormuz situation will develop going forward?

The market reacted to the suggestion that Iran had reached out to Oman to jointly manage a toll system through the Strait, but the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has strongly condemned Iran's implementation of a toll booth system in the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a flagrant breach of international law; AI advises that Oman are currently engaged in drafting a protocol to supervise transit in the Strait of Hormuz, but has not signed or publicly agreed to a toll regime.

I agree that the UK should pull every drop of Oil and gas out of the North Sea and anywhere else it's feasible, if only from the tax income point of view, but it wont make any difference in this crisis or future crises. It makes economic and even environmental sense to obtain as much resource locally against importing the same commodity. The private companies make the investment and the UK Government gets any future tax, so it's a no brainer economically.

I'm not sure what's going on with the markets, but they appear to be looking for any excuse to push the narrative that this current Hormuz situation will soon ease. I've been watching commentators on CNBC and it's clear there's lots of institutional interest in seeing the markets rise and Oil go down, and they're really pushing the narrative that all this will be over soon and everything will be wonderful; You can almost sense the desperation through their body language and the opinions they're pumping out. There has to be some reason why big money want a swift end to this, maybe they're worrying this will lead to something systemic, maybe in Private Credit or something else; We may already be facing a global recession.

This has driven BP down and other stocks up, unbelievably schizophrenic market. Its up and down like a brides nightie.

WTI is grinding up higher as time goes on; Apart from a large spike on the 4th March, where it got to around $115, it's higher than it's been since the start of the war. For some reason Brent isn't, as yet, recovering its high's.