Member Info for fleccy

IanKellett, all any of us can do is guess where things might go. Trump says one thing, the Iranians say another, I'm more inclined to believe the Iranians over Trump. Trump seems to view this as a game, with the possibility to make money for vested interests around him. From what I've seen in the media, Musk's DOGE crusade gutted many of the departments that would advise on Middle East policy and the departments who'd investigate market anomalies at the SEC. It also appears that Trump has created a situation where people are afraid to go after Trump. It's astounding to see how much power one man can wield in what's supposed to be a lawful democracy and how easily checks and balances can just be circumvented.

"So Trump has given Iran another 10 days"

There are a couple of possible reasons for the delay, he's either bottled out of escalating since the IRGC haven't capitulated to his threat, or the US is thinking of trying something with the troops they're sending to the region; The most obvious reason is that he's TACO'd on bombing the power grid.

How did any of that involve the US risking US lives in the Falkland war? It didn't, unless the US were going to man any military assets they lent us. This is about the US trying to strong arm Nato into his war of choice, because he's worried that US naval assets may be lost in the Strait. One thing I do agree with Trump on, is that the UK and Europe should reduce their dependence on the US military, since Trump has proved how one sided the "special" relationship is. I used to like Trump and thought the UK would benefit from having someone like him over here, but that was before his threats over Greenland and his beggar thy neighbour rhetoric. He insults his allies and says nothing about Putin; Everyone was shocked when Trump and Vance ganged up on Zelensky, in an attempt to push Ukraine into a capitulation peace deal with Russia so that Trump could boast how he's stopped yet another war at the expense of others.

Iran are calling Trump out and will hopefully test his metal to the limit, since his ego appears to be cashing cheques the US can't pay; The Trump legacy will likely be a global recession with every other country also paying for his ego. Speaking of the Trump ego, it's sickening to see how his administration cronies and world politicians suck up to him and kiss his @ss. Trump really does need a dose of humility, but I don't believe his personality is deep enough for that, he'll just blame any missteps on others, or say out loud that it's all part of his masterplan and he was expecting it to be worse. If he does succeed in plunging the World into a Global recession, his comeback will be something like I was expecting it and it's turned out better than I expected 🤪

https://www.tiktok.com/@thishourhas22minutes/video/7166639912580549890

https://www.tiktok.com/@thishourhas22minutes/video/7478063449617075462

Well we provide intelligence to the US from UK contacts in the Middle East, there's a big difference between sharing intelligence and putting Naval and air assets at risk. There were no US ships, or US aircraft, in the south Atlantic and no US troops taking part in the Falkland war, so how does that compare with what Trump is asking of Nato allies? The US picks and chooses narratives to suit themselves, Trump is well out order.

Indeed. Reading between the lines, in my opinion, this is implying a big escalation is coming. Is anyone else watching the briefing and drawing the same conclusion?

Now I'm rambling. Just to finish this briefing appears to be preparing the US public for an escalation, onward and upwards indeed.

OMG a legend in his own mind, he'll be mentioned in Psychiatric journals for generations to come.

More digs at the EU an Nato, as I said previously the US didn't help us retrieve the Falklands because it was geographically outside of Nato's remit, even though it was an attack on a Nato member. The Iran war was a war of choice initiated by the US and Israel, and apparently isn't legally covered under article 6.

Trumps rambling on again, just watching him on CNBC. They're sick I tell ya, sickkkkkkk.

Once Trump gets chip manufacturing established in the US, it wouldn't surprise me if he throws Taiwan under the bus, he'll probably discuss it during his visit to China in May. Other than his family wealth and legacy, Trump probably doesn't care about anything and anyone else; Once he no longer requires Taiwan they'll likely end up as part of greater China.

Currently BT seems to be viewed as a defence against the situation in the Persian Gulf, which is contradictory to the narrative telegraphed by the financial media in normal times.

Blame AI, not me 😜

Another forecast:

"Good morning. The 'Price Surge' Hurricane has officially reached Category 5 status, making landfall on the global economy this week.

We are tracking a total stagnation of flow through the Strait of Hormuz, where the 'economic clock' is ticking faster than most central banks can recalibrate. Brent crude has maintained a high-altitude hover around $100 to $126 per barrel, while local 'Dubai crude' hit a record peak of $166 on March 19. Though a 15-point U.S. peace proposal on March 25 caused a slight dip in pressure to roughly $100.53, the underlying atmosphere remains extremely volatile.

The forecast for the coming weeks includes:

Widespread Supply Erosion: A net shortfall of 14.5 to 16.5 million barrels per day is currently bypassing global buffers.

Industrial Flash Flooding: Beyond oil, a critical 'helium and fertiliser' drought is expected to trigger secondary shocks in semiconductor manufacturing and spring planting, respectively.

Persistent High Costs: Despite the IEA's record release of 400 million barrels, energy analysts predict retail fuel prices will remain 'above average' for the foreseeable duration of the kinetic front.

Visibility into a ceasefire remains zero, and the global fiscal outlook is increasingly grey."

BP's share price is probably a reasonably good barometer of where this is going.

Good morning, global economy! Here’s your 5-day outlook for the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s going to be a stormy one, with high pressure building in from Tehran, making things absolutely unbearable for maritime navigation. Expect heavy, unexpected showers of kinetic, explosive, and perhaps "unsolicited" drone activity. Visibility is near zero, largely due to the massive, thick fog of uncertainty blanketing the Gulf.

Looking at our radar, we have a massive traffic jam of 150 tankers—anchored outside just watching—as the strait is experiencing a 100% chance of an effective, non-legal shutdown.

If you were planning to sail through with consumer goods, prepare for a long, scenic detour around the Cape of Good Hope, adding about two weeks to your commute and a few zeroes to your insurance premiums.

In short: Stay inside, hold onto your Brent crude, and don't trust the GPS—reports suggest it’s actively trying to take you to a random, unlisted port in a very, very bad mood.

"I highly, highly doubt the US will put boots on the ground - Russian & China will be forced to act if they do - this thing is as existential for them as it is Iran"

Why is it existential for Russia, they're currently raking it in because of this. China might be suffering due to the shortage of Oil, but I wouldn't describe it as existential for them. The Philippines have declared a national energy emergency, but what can they do?

I asked AI if the IRGC are experienced:

"4. Recent Combat Experience

Unlike most Western militaries, the IRGC and its Quds Force have been in continuous active combat for the last decade in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. They are battle-hardened, understand U.S. drone patterns, and have mastered the use of cheap, effective loitering munitions (like the Shahed drones) that have redefined modern warfare.

5. The "Home Field" Advantage

Iran's geography—a massive central plateau surrounded by jagged mountains—is a defender's dream. Even a small IRGC unit with MANPADS (shoulder-fired anti-air missiles) and ATGMs (anti-tank missiles) could turn a U.S. "surgical strike" into a bloody, long-term quagmire"

A full scale invasion of Iran with 7000 troops? I doubt it. If they are looking at boots on the ground it'll be likely small scale. Some media outlets have suggested they might go after the Uranium, but that's supposed to be buried; They could go after Kharg Island, but it'd likely have to be an airborne assault since an amphibious assault would require troop carries to risk the Strait of Hormuz; Another suggested possible target is the Islands situated in the Strait, like Qeshm, but that would be extremely risky and would also likely have to be an airborne assault.

Boots on the ground would be super risky and it isn't like the IRGC are inexperienced soldiers, since they've been involved in lots of skirmishes with other allies like Hezbollah. If I was a US soldier asked to go in there, I'd be quite afraid of what might be awaiting me. Even the best laid plans often backfire in war, expect the unexpected.

Iran has just rejected Trumps 15 point plan

There's a contradiction in the market, many stocks have advanced purely on optimism, but Oil prices are now turning and BP's share price along with it. If this trend continues it wont be long before Risk Off returns.

I'm not saying I wont invest in Aviva at some point, but I'm not going to get sucked in for the dividend when there's serious potential that Trump's "peace talks" come to nothing. If things had gone the other way after it recently dropped below £6 then I would likely have braved it, but I'm not currently buying into the current risk on market environment.