Member Info for fleccy

I read through the Motley Fool article and Edward Sheldon said:

"Personally, I won’t be buying the shares for my own portfolio. I’m more of a growth investor and, for me, there isn’t enough long-term growth potential here"

Translation: Damn, if only I'd know the Donald was going to war with Iran and Oil Majors share prices would see daily gains for the foreseeable future; Oh well I'll make do with "growth" stocks that may, or may not, give a good return in the future.

🚀

It'd be far more impressive if they had rows of racks full of rigs, it's a pointless picture and very underwhelming.

"Is NATO/the UK/EU leaving Trump out to stew in his own juices, mostly because they do not want to get involved and partly because it is a form of revenge for past behaviours by Trump"

Some wars aren't the responsibility of Nato allies, someone should remind Trump about the Falkland War, did the UK ask for US sailors or soldiers to risk their lives during that war; No they didn't, because it was our responsibility to fight our own war on that occasion, just like it's the US and Israeli responsibility to sort this mess out of their own making.

The price seems to be slowly heading higher, day by day, with volatility causing some good daily price swings, today being a good example. Today the price opened at 534p and peaked around 546p, within 15 minutes of the open, then over the course of the day dipped back down below the opening price and finally closed 6p up on the open. I wonder what tomorrow will bring.

A positive for the share price going higher is that Trump is pushing for others to help in opening the Strait, which would suggest he's doubling down rather than edging toward TACO. BP's share price in the short term will probably depend on Trump's ego and the current price of oil. I don't disagree that the futures are important, in respect of a long term hold vs making a strategic exit when price target's are reached, but the current geopolitical environment is more relevant to investors who aren't emotionally drawn to holding long term.

You're reading my mind, I've been keeping a close eye on the current price vs the 5 year high.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BP:LON?comparison=&window=5Y

$105 and $101

"As of March 15, 2026, maritime intelligence reports indicate that approximately 1,000 vessels are currently waiting to enter the Strait of Hormuz. This massive backlog is the result of an effective blockade and a collapse in commercial traffic following the outbreak of conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran on February 28, 2026.

Arabian Gulf Business Insight | AGBI

Arabian Gulf Business Insight | AGBI

+3

Key details regarding the current shipping status:

Transit Volume: Daily commercial crossings have plummeted by over 90%, from a pre-war average of 70–80 ships per day to nearly zero.

Stranded Vessels: Beyond those waiting to enter, roughly 3,000 commercial vessels and 20,000 seafarers are currently stranded within the Persian Gulf, unable to safely exit.

Specific Backlogs: As of March 11, at least 137 container ships were confirmed stuck specifically west of the Strait.

Selective Transit: While most commercial traffic is frozen, a very small number of Iranian-linked or "authorized" vessels (including some Turkish and Indian-chartered ships) have successfully navigated the strait in the last 48 hours.

Navigation Hazards: Ships in the area are facing severe GPS and AIS jamming, affecting more than 1,650 vessels and creating significant risks for those attempting to hold their positions"

"With India and China passing, though, that's the two countries who make up 50% of the exports that went through pre-war."

The number of ships passing through suggests otherwise, you're talking about a handful of tankers weighed against the number of stranded tankers and tankers waiting to enter.

https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/

Https://www.ft.com/content/c8ef2abd-964d-4b8a-8dab-3a7a25055f53

"India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar told the FT that negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran which allowed for two Indian-flagged gas tankers to pass through the Strait on Saturday were an example of what diplomacy could bring.

“I am at the moment engaged in talking to them and my talking has yielded some results,” he said in an interview. “This is ongoing. If it is yielding results for me, I would naturally continue to look at it.”"

"“Each relationship frankly, in a way stands on its own merits,” he said when asked if European countries could ape India’s arrangement. “So now, it’s very hard for me to compare this with some other relationship which may or may not have these.”

“I’d be happy to share with [EU capitals] what we are doing . . . I know many of them have had conversations [with Tehran] as well,” he added."

Not exactly a reopening of the Strait, I wonder how much this has cost India, I can't imagine Iran are allowing Indian tankers through out of the goodness of their hearts.

I've seen video's where the commentators have suggested that physical oil is trading well above the spot price, supply and demand dictates what people will pay. It demonstrates that the spot price doesn't reflect the prices paid on the sea.

Https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/portfolio/personal-finance/backwardation-signals-brief-supply-crunch/article70740675.ece/amp/

"What it means for price

If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise, the anticipated oversupply could exert downward pressure on crude prices. The EIA expects Brent crude to average around $70/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $64 in 2027. On the other hand, the futures curve indicates a higher price as October, November and December contracts are now trading above $80/barrel.

That said, the outlook remains highly uncertain at the moment. If the conflict persists and supply disruptions continue, the futures curve could start flattening as markets begin to price in sustained higher prices for longer-dated contracts. But this is what the futures market is indicating for now"

"Confirmed Supply Losses Reshape Global Crude Flows

Gulf producers have slashed combined output by at least 10 million barrels per day since the Hormuz closure, according to the IEA's latest Oil Market Report. Over 3 million bpd of regional refining capacity has shut down due to attacks and blocked export routes. This represents a direct hit to 20% of seaborne-traded crude, most destined for Asia.

Physical indicators confirm the severity: Dubai crude's $38 premium over paper futures dwarfs normal spreads, signaling refiners' desperate cargo hunts. Brent crude futures touched $119 early this week before settling near $100 in Asian trade Friday, while WTI followed a similar volatile path.

Unlike 2022's Ukraine disruptions—where supply redirected—this shock lacks viable bypasses. Limited pipeline alternatives and filling storage leave exporters with few options, forcing output cuts.

For crude oil specifically, this means immediate supply tightening in the Brent-linked grades dominant in Europe. The 98-100 Fibonacci zone now acts as resistance, with daily RSI overbought per technical analysis.

Asia Refiners Cut Runs as China-India Race for Russian Barrels

China and India—top importers of Hormuz flows—are pivoting to Russian crude, including cargoes stuck in floating storage. The US Treasury's extension to April 11 allows such purchases, but volumes fall far short of replacing 10 million bpd losses.

Wood Mackenzie warns Asian refiners face April shortfalls, dipping into 15-day buffer stocks and planning run cuts. Jet and diesel cracks have hit record highs, amplifying fuel shortages.

This competition bids up Urals and ESPO grades, indirectly supporting Brent and WTI via arbitrage. European refiners, reliant on Middle East sour crudes, face higher processing costs and diesel squeezes critical for trucking and heating.

Fear Premium Adds $15-20 to Crude Prices Amid Iran Tensions

A 'fear premium' of $15-20 per barrel has embedded in crude pricing, driven by trader worries over Hormuz flows. Energy consultant David Blackmon notes fundamentals take a backseat during such Middle East flare-ups.

Escalating Iran tensions sparked Monday's volatility: prices spiked from $98 to $120, reversed to $80s, then stabilized near $85 before rebounding. This mirrors 2021-2022 surges but with real supply hits, not just sentiment.

Paper markets bet on quick resolutions and a 400-million-barrel emergency release, but physical realities override. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright downplayed $200 oil risks while admitting Navy escorts aren't ready"

https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/strait-of-hormuz-closure-drives-crude-oil-spike-physical-premiums-signal/68685234#:~:text=15.03.2026%20%2D%2009:05,supply%20risks%20for%20DACH%20investors

That's because he thinks it's a Golf Tournament with 4 or more rounds. Look we've got another hole in one, obliterated!!!

I wonder how much longer this will continue? Clearly escorting ships is currently a non starter and would be weeks away should it happen.

Will Trump declare victory and wind up the campaign, and will Iran re-open the Strait in response? Iran could decide to prolong the war by keeping the Strait closed and demand things like sanctions relief with guarantees of no further attacks.

I can't see Iran surrendering and just the threat of attacks will hold the Strait closed, so how much longer will this go on?

Https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/mar/14/trump-warships-strait-of-hormuz-iran-oil-shipping

Can you imagine what a UK warship being hit and sailors killed, or wounded escorting tankers through the strait, it would be political suicide for Starmer. Even if Trump manages to persuade others to join in, by escorting ships, it would take weeks maybe months to organise the first convoy; By which time Oil prices would be through the roof and wouldn't solve Trump's biggest problem, the escalating Oil price.

"I sold the remainder of my bp shares at 538.7p and I’ve put that money in Microsoft"

https://giphy.com/gifs/disney-nose-pinocchio-E3f3WMlG1D4gU

Iran has responded to the Trump threat of destroying Kharg Island Oil facilities, basically saying they'll destroy all the oil infrastructure throughout the Middle East; This isn't a surprise. My guess would be that Trump is seriously considering taking over the Island, probably against advice from all of his military and intelligence advisers. Doesn't appear as though the IRGC are backing down.

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/900359

As I said in a previous post, should the US compromise Kharg Island Oil, common sense suggests any influence China have to restrain Iran from mining the Gulf will evaporate, and Iran will also likely send anything and everything at other Oil infrastructure throughout the region, including any pipeline's avoiding the Strait.

Zanab I disagree with virtually every part of your last post, if the Iranians lose Kharg Island they'll just fill the Persian gulf with mines. It's naive to think the US previously sinking the "mine laying" ships, that were clearly on display, wont have been considered by the IRGC. Trump is playing with fire and Kharg Island Oil being destroyed, or taken over, will likely push the Iranians to escalate to their absolute limit. If the Iranians lose Kharg Island, China will no longer have any leverage to restrain them for obvious reasons.