Member Info for fleccy

"Being softened up for US troops??"

It would appear so. If they do manage to take Kharg Island, the Iranians will likely blow it up themselves just to ensure the US don't have it. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds, but I don't believe Trump's threats and bluster will have any effect on the IRGC's responses. The US will do whatever they're going to do irrespective of whatever the Iranians do and the Iranians know this because they're not stupid. Trump continuously telling the World how great the US military is and how they've levelled Iran doesn't send a message of confidence, it's the behaviour of someone who appears to be under great pressure. I think Trump is displaying the behaviour of someone who's messed up and trying to convince others they haven't.

This guy says that the wholesale market price of Oil might show as around $100 a barrel, but delivered Oil in the real world could be as high as $200 a barrel. He also says this is a real oil shortage and not just a market narrative pricing event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJj-hO2mu4w

Is creeping up and may soon be joining Brent above $100 a barrel.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

I'll believe it when I see it, lots of marines would likely die. If they're serious, it'll likely be aimed at taking Kharg Island. I've seen the "movies" with Apache and Black Hawke helicopters swooping in, followed by amphibious assault craft's carrying the marines. Of course the significant IRGC presence on the island wont be expecting them 🙄and because the US have left Kharg Island alone its air defences are probably still intact. If the US is serious about this, I doubt they'd imply that it's on the cards.

I'm not sure what's going on with the US administration these days, but Pete Hegseth comes across as something special, that isn't meant to be a compliment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8XrE0FSQv4

"SHORT OIL"

That's a bold call Rob, can you provide detailed figures to back that up?

I doubt peace would suddenly occur, since things are ramping up rather than cooling off, should it happen I'd assume the Universe was signaling me to hang on to BP. since the stock is undervalued anyway. Miners like Rio Tinto mine Iron ore, Copper, Uranium and rare earths, all things that'll be required during the shift from fossil fuels to electrification. There's always be a need for oil, but the move to renewables, battery technology and nuclear will require the things miners supply.

Like others on here I've been watching the unfolding situation in Iran and weighing my options. The current Oil price and geopolitical situation suggests BP is severely undervalued. The cash injection, from increases in the Oil price, should accelerate BP's debt reduction program and increase cash flow. The big question is how long will this go on and how the sector share prices react to an end to the war, basically how will BP's share price react.

When the war ends, I suspect the World will accelerate the move from fossil fuel dependency toward electrification supplied by nuclear and renewables. I haven't sold any of my BP holdings yet, but the increases in the share price is tempting me to unload a percentage or all of my BP holding at some point.

I've been looking at alternatives that may benefit from a move to electrification, so I've looked at the mining sector and considered ANTO, BHP and Rio Tinto. The ANTO dividend yield is rubbish and I didn't feel drawn to the stock, BHP is facing a huge litigation payout due the London litigation looking for a £36 Billion payout, on top of the 20 year $30 Billion payout agreed with the Brazil Government. I'm therefore considering Rio Tinto as an alternative, but when and if to sell BP and buy Rio Tinto should I decide to.

"Lol, yeah, my posts on the lse board are what moves markets ;)"

I realise that, I was referring to people using this forum.

"I'm going to stick my neck out and say Trump declares victory on Sunday"

That's optimistic, are you trying to encourage people to sell tomorrow?

There's no doubt Trump is feeling the pressure, but to backout now would make him an ever bigger laughing stock than he is already. Then again I suppose he could decide to go for the easier target, Cuba. Iran has done Denmark a favour, since Trump will likely put Greenland on the too scared to touch shelf for the remainder of his tenure, since he may have finally learned that he can't have everything his own way.

Ok I've watched that Video and it defies logic. He skirted around the question asking if escort ships was discussed in the latest meeting, by saying that's your words not mine. I hope the UK wont be part of his "international coalition" escorting ships, because it's a virtual certainty that ships will be hit if not sunk. The US and Israel initiated this, they should deal with and fix any fallout alone and not risk UK, French and other countries warships because of their folly. They must know Iran will be sitting there in the Zagros Mountains, just waiting for the opportunity to fire off hypersonic missiles and artillery at ships around the Strait. As mentioned previously, missile destroyers can probably have a good chance with incoming missiles, but combine that with dumb artillery and expect bad things. I suppose the US could carpet bomb the mountain range, but it's quite big and the Iranians have probably thought of that, and prepared for it. It's a bad idea and I'll believe it when I see it, because it's either a fake narrative to move the oil price, or sheer stupidity. Fish in a barrel springs to mind.

Is that oil prices aren't far higher already.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2_9QjRn2to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVrwvC-8hxk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVrwvC-8hxk

I'd be curious to know where?

Netanyahu played Trump like a fiddle, unfortunately the strings are wound too tight and close to snapping. The Trump A string is probably already over-vibrating

"Proof is there, QBT will be one of the winners, 50p-£1 deepening on deal, wait till heard get behind it"

If that occurs Obelix, you'll realise it was just a wonderful dream when you open your eyes and wake up in the morning. Arguably the herd has already made a judgement on QBT.

"I think you know my opinions of Trump"

What are they, did you suggest he's a rambling lunatic.

Zanab it's irrelevant, the IRGC are running the show and they're on a tear. Trump's body language suggests Iran's reaction is causing him considerable stress. Oil majors share prices say it all, this war will probably cripple the World economy. I've been watching Al Jazeera and some of the segments show the economic effect on businesses in the Far East, and the Middle East is burning.

Is that the same two tankers from last night, or is it another two? I bet Iraq has Shatt Al-Brick

"what caused the fires in the case of the 11th March attack

The fires on the two foreign tankers attacked in Iraqi territorial waters on 11 March 2026 were caused by unidentified projectiles.

Incident Details

Attack Method: The vessels were subjected to unidentified strikes while transporting Iraqi fuel oil.

Vessel Impact: Both tankers caught fire as a result of the strikes, and the blazes remained active even after the initial response.

Casualties: There were no reported casualties; Iraqi port authorities successfully evacuated all 25 crew members from the burning ships"

Looks like this attack has bumped up the price of oil, WTI now $91 and Brent over $96

"attack on iraqi vessels

During the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran (as of March 2026), there has been a significant escalation of attacks on vessels in and near Iraqi waters.

Recent Incidents in Iraqi Waters

Attack on Foreign Tankers: On March 11, 2026, two foreign oil tankers carrying Iraqi fuel oil were attacked within Iraqi territorial waters.

Impact: Both vessels caught fire.

Response: Iraqi authorities successfully evacuated 25 crew members from the burning ships.

Explosive Boat Attack: On March 5, 2026, the Bahamas-flagged crude oil tanker Sonangol Namibe was targeted while anchored near Iraq's Khor al Zubair port.

Method: An Iranian remote-controlled boat laden with explosives detonated upon hitting the vessel.

Damage: The blast breached the hull, causing a ballast tank to take on water, though no cargo was on board and no casualties were reported.

Significance: This was the first recorded attack inside Iraq's exclusive economic zone during this conflict."

In Iraqi waters:

https://scanx.trade/stock-market-news/commodities/two-foreign-oil-tankers-attacked-in-iraqi-territorial-waters-25-crew-members-evacuated/34811830