Member Info for fleccy

It's possible the market makers are trying to send Trump a message, it seems the markets are one of the few things he pays attention to. Iran has responded to Trump, indicating that they'll decide when the war is over. Even if Trump tries to pull back there's no guarantee Iran will allow the strait to reopen. The Iranians might push for sanction lifting if they believe they have Trump on the ropes, which I can't see Trump going for, my guess is that this is far from over; And then there's another bunch of fanatics in Israel who'll keep this going until they achieve their goal of transforming Iran into a failed state. The odds are that this will go on for a lot longer than another week.

Trump speaks and the market moves, just shows how the market moves on Trump whim's.

"It's just all going to end soon, apparently"

I've listened to Trump and his recent briefings are full of doublespeak, his body language suggests he's not particularly sure of his "excursion" into Iran. If you look at his press conferences post grabbing Maduro, he was bursting with so much pride he could hardly contain himself, his briefings about Iran show a completely different Trump.

His briefing today was full of threats, like threatening to bomb Iran's electrical infrastructure if Iran escalate their response to the US and Israeli attacks; Does anyone else see the contradiction in what Trump's saying? If Iran's missile capabilities are that depleted, why is Trump threatening their civil utilities infrastructure? Reading between the lines, Trump is implying that Iran still have a lot of capability to respond. Something else, Trump thought the Iranian regime would capitulate just on the back of the US military buildup in the region, he continually misjudges the fact that others would rather die than give in and judges everyone else based on his own view of the World, which is likely very blinkered.

"The problem i see with BP is how much Poo has been shut in, in Middle East that BP pump"

No as much of a problem as you might think, although BP manages the Iraq oilfield, BP doesn't own the oil. I believe BP have a share of UAE oil, but that goes down a pipe to Fujairah and I seem to remember reading it's at less risk should the Strait be completely blocked. I'm short of time so I haven't taken another look since I last researched this, you could ask AI.

Long may the rise continue.

But market participants must be putting in and then cancelling Buy orders, to cause such short term spikes, that could be seen as gaming.

BP's share price is spiking up and down around 10p or 11p, which is well more than Bid/Ask spread, very strange movements. Market games?

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BP:LON

The US is trying to use narrative to talk down the price of Oil, that'll be short lived without substantive change around the Strait of Hormuz. I've no doubt that Iran are feeling the strain, but they may have many of their more capable missiles hidden and biding their time. Like a wounded trapped animal, no one knows if Iran will go for a full scorched earth approach, with the aim of completely bringing down the World economy. If Iran do have the resources and see their end coming, they'll likely fire off everything they've got at every bit of Oil infrastructure throughout the Middle East.

"P.o.o. Just dropped below $100"

Where are you looking Stanley? It isn't what I'm seeing.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

WTI Futures are hovering around the same price, this is big.

WTI and Brent showing around the same price currently.

I saw that, I expect the Israeli's are taunting the IRGC hard liners to target Oil infrastructure in the rest of the Gulf. Clearly the Israeli's have different goals than the US and what Israel views as good for itself is bad for the US. Should the IRGC decide to all out attack the Oil and Gas infrastructure throughout the Gulf, then Israel will have achieved the chaos that is clearly their plan.

Netanyahu has turned Trump into his puppet, moving Trumps lips while Netanyahu's words ring out; It's an incredible act of ventriloquism, I'm surprised Trump isn't speaking Hebrew when he talks.

https://i.postimg.cc/tJ9BpJH2/TN.jpg

"Iran-Israel Tensions: Will Saudi Arabia Follow Kuwait’s Oil Cuts? Declares Force Majeure as Hormuz Blockade Enters Day 8; 20% of Global Oil Supply Suspended"

https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/iran-israel-tensions-will-saudi-arabia-follow-kuwaits-oil-cuts-declares-force-majeure-as-hormuz-blockade-enters-day-8-20-of-global-oil-supply-suspended-174606/

" Israel has had years to prepare for this"

Israel seems to have a strange idea about how cement its place in the World. It's naive to think that you can hold an enemy down forever and Israel have spent years planting seeds of hatred throughout the Middle East. I was brought up as C/E (Church of England), but I'm not religious in the conventional sense, so I have no religious view about what goes on in the Middle East. Common sense suggests that time and history doesn't stop, so events that happen today can have payback 10 or 50 years in the future. Karma suggests that what Israel does today will eventually come back at them. Although the Gulf states, Turkey and others appear friendly toward Israel, I can guarantee that in reality they despise Israel, the only thing that keeps Israel safe is the US having their back and there's no guarantee that'll always be the case. On quite a few occasions, I've seen speculation that a post WW2 Nuclear exchange will happen in the Middle East, going off the history of the region that shouldn't surprise anyone. As time goes on it's highly likely that nuclear armament will spread to many current non nuclear states, you can't put the Genie back in the bottle. I believe Israel are planting the seeds of their own future destruction.

"Oil should start going down now, Iran has signalled They will stop attaching countries around them"

It's the open ended closure of the Strait of Hormuz that's raising Oil prices, unless the Strait is reopened the price of oil will keep going up. At best stopping direct attacks on the Gulf states might allow air travel to normalise, but little else.

Zanab, whatever is reported about Iran's responses should be viewed through various lenses. Iran might apologise for various strikes, but I'd argue the Iranians would go for a scorched earth destruction of Middle East Oil infrastructure should they feel that their existential end is definite. All this talk about Iran not being able to do this, that, and the other probably assumes that Iran haven't being preparing for this for years, and that they're somehow incompetent when it comes to hiding their military assets. Iran will have learned how to avoid satellite and drone surveillance and likely hid the construction of many of their so called "missile cities". I'd also argue that Iran probably removed much of the Enriched Uranium from their nuclear facilities and distributed them at multiple locations.

It isn't surprising that Israel find plenty of disgruntled Iranians happy to spy on their behalf, probably recruited among the minority populations, but you'd expect the IRGC are aware of this and have units specifically used for military installation and construction, probably staffed by loyal committed regime supporters. Maybe the US and Israel do know where all of Iran's military assets are located, but there's a good chance the Iranians are more wily than assumed. Underestimate your enemy at your peril.

Well lots of US troops going home in body bags wont help the Republicans in the Midterm's, I doubt Trump will risk US troops.

" It's hard to see the US not planning something for the strait, which they stupidly didn't do before. I've read reinsurance is being done now by gov and I'd expect escorts in the coming days, partial reopening."

I doubt it, would you risk your life sailing through the Strait of Hormuz? I wouldn't and I suspect the captains and crews of the Oil tankers wont either. There are lots of ways the Iranians could attack shipping going through the Strait and a US escort Warship would be a prime target for the Iranians. I heard what Trump was suggesting, I just can't see it in reality.

"A £10k–£25k trade may look small in absolute terms, but on a sub-£0.5 AIM stock it still represents millions of shares moving in single prints, and several of those appearing off-book during the day suggests negotiated transfers rather than typical retail flow"

Mikey all QBT's trades show as Off Book because QBT is an illiquid stock and trades through the SETSqx service of the London Stock Exchange. £25,000 isn't a big trade, I've made far larger single trades than that and I'm only a retail investor.

"A collective declaration of Force Majeure by Gulf energy exporters would signal a total suspension of their legal obligations to deliver oil and gas, effectively "freezing" the global energy trade. As of 6 March 2026, Qatar has already taken this step, and its Energy Minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warns that all other regional exporters will be forced to follow suit within days.

The Energy Year

Immediate Market Impacts

Price Explosion: Analysts predict oil could skyrocket to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks. Natural gas prices have already surged nearly 50% following Qatar's declaration.

Supply Vacuum: Roughly 20% of global LNG and 20% of global oil supply would instantly vanish from the market.

Contractual Chaos: Force Majeure shields exporters like QatarEnergy from multi-billion dollar liabilities for non-delivery. Buyers (utilities and refineries) are left with no gas, no compensation, and are forced to outbid each other for limited "spot" cargoes from the US or West Africa.

The Energy Year

The "Chain Reaction" of Economic Collapse

Minister al-Kaabi warns this will "bring down the economies of the world" through several critical failures:

Industrial Paralysis: A lack of fuel and feedstock (urea, polymers, methanol) will trigger a "chain reaction" of factory shutdowns worldwide.

Inflationary Feedback Loop: Sky-high energy costs will immediately drive up transport, manufacturing, and consumer prices, forcing central banks into aggressive interest rate hikes that could cause a global recession.

Logistical Deadlock: As war-risk insurance is cancelled or premiums jump by 50%+, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—already down 95%—would cease entirely.

Gibson Dunn

Recovery Timeline

Even if the war ended tomorrow, the markets would not recover quickly:

Restart Lag: It takes "weeks to months" to safely restart super-chilled LNG production lines at facilities like Ras Laffan.

Portfolio Pivot: European and Asian buyers would be forced into a structural, high-cost shift away from Gulf energy toward less predictable spot markets for years to come"