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Just watched a guy from from Duckett Marine on CNBC and he compared the effect of this as comparable to COVID, and he said if the Houthis cause problems for shipping through the Red Sea then the effects will be bigger again. It seems competition for freight shipping is getting aggressively expensive, an unintended consequence of the War.

BP's share price is currently spiking up and down rather than seeing consistent upward momentum, so I suspect the price is being Algo driven by some and held down for whatever reason. It's like different Algo's are fighting each other, with some ensuring that upward momentum is constrained. I suspect some big players are betting this War will be short lived, but events on the ground suggest otherwise.

"The Market looks several weeks and months ahead...there is fundamentally a huge glut of cheap oil and gas that goes well into the future"

Although I'm invested in BP, I can't claim to have any detailed knowledge around the Oil and Energy sector. Going of what I've read and recent media reports, the Global Oil surplus is approximately 3 weeks supply and Gas prices are already rocketing, so I think you're downplaying the effect of this War Stanley.

Just to add, Brent and WTI prices appear to be edging up. As the Oil price rises it'll likely feed through to Oil major's share prices.

"Would have thought £5 was nailed on this morning "

Met too, I'm at a bit of a loss why Oil majors aren't seeing far higher share price rises. The market view is that there's currently a global surplus and traders are betting the war will be short lived. Funnily enough I expect the prices at the pumps will go up and Natural Gas related Energy will see price rises. I'm glad I fixed my electricity for a year recently, but the UK has price caps in place anyway. I'm not sure how this might affect energy suppliers in general.

Ignore my last post, I've just seen some content saying the three F15's were shot down by air defences.

"Qatar LNG production and destroy world's biggest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia as US F-15s are shot down in Kuwait"

If I was to speculate, the most likely cause could be something like fuel contamination by a bad actor, in other words sabotage. If it is something like contaminated fuel, it wouldn't necessarily need to be contaminated at the base.

A picture is worth a 1000 words

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BP:LON?comparison=LON%3ASHEL

I'm holding for now, it's possible the market making (illuminati) are holding prices down, to a certain extent, while they load up. There's been a lot of up to 10p price swings following the open. I suspect this will escalate further and oil stock share prices could go considerably higher over the coming days, assuming there isn't a highly improbable ceasefire announcement. As expected travel related stocks are taking big hits.

"Iran's Shahed-136 drones have hit the Aramco oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco has halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery. "

https://news.abplive.com/news/world/iran-drones-hit-aramco-oil-refinery-in-saudi-arabia-1829476

Now in the 3rd day, I wonder how long this might last.

They'd still have the option to mine the Strait if they run out of missiles, but the threat of sinking tankers is currently enough to deter ship traffic. If the regime feel they have nothing to lose, they'll just inflict as much pain as they can on the US/World economy and the easiest way to do that is close the Strait for as long as possible. The speculation is that Brent will spike up to $80 at tonight's open and WTI could spike up to around $100 at tomorrow's open.

The Strait of Hormuz is clearly a no go zone while the War continues.

"The Maritime Security Center has announced that the oil tanker SKYLIGHT, flying the flag of the Republic of Palau, was targeted approximately five nautical miles north of the Port of Khasab in the Musandam Governorate."

https://timesofoman.com/article/168894-oil-tanker-hit-near-khasab-20-crew-members-evacuated

There are some tankers moving through the Strait, but it may be that the IRGC are letting some through by arrangement. For all we know the Chinese might be asking permission to let some oil through, or it could be for other reasons. From what I've read, the Iranians have short range missiles capable of taking out commercial tankers.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.5/centery:26.4/zoom:10

Apparently the Insurance companies are threatening higher prices to cover ships using the Strait, that'll have a big effect too. The Strait of Hormuz will likely be closed for as long as this war persists.

"How high could BP's share price climb to next week

Given the reported outbreak of war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, BP’s share price could realistically test its 52-week high of 484.10p or even breach the psychological 500p barrier as early as next week (2–6 March 2026).

Investing.com UK

Investing.com UK

+1

Historically, oil "supermajors" like BP see immediate double-digit gains during major Middle Eastern supply shocks. However, while the oil price acts as a massive tailwind, broader market panic often caps these gains for energy stocks.

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan

+1

Estimated Price Targets for Next Week

Based on historical reactions to 20%–30% oil price spikes and current analyst forecasts, here are the potential levels BP could reach:

Scenario Estimated Brent Crude Potential BP Price Range

Initial Gap Up $85 – $90 490p – 495p (Approx. +3-4% jump)

Strait Closure Confirmed $100 – $110 505p – 525p (Testing multi-year resistance)

Prolonged Blockage $140+ 550p+ (Approaching historical 2023 highs)

Why BP Could Surge

Massive Revenue Leverage: BP is highly sensitive to Brent crude movements; a sustained $10 increase in oil prices adds billions to its annual operating cash flow, which was already $27.3bn in 2024.

Safe Haven Flows: During regional conflicts, investors often rotate out of "growth" stocks and into "value" energy stocks that provide a natural hedge against inflation and rising fuel costs.

Analyst Upgrades: Prior to this conflict, the consensus 12-month target was 479.58p, with some bullish analysts already eyeing 598p. A war premium will likely cause many analysts to fast-track these higher targets.

XTB.com

XTB.com

+3

Factors That Could Limit the Rise

Wider Market Drawdown: If the war triggers a global sell-off, the FTSE 100 could drop by 5% to 10%, which often drags even the "winners" down as investors liquidate positions for cash.

Debt Concerns: BP carries a significant $26.1bn debt pile. If the war leads to a spike in global interest rates, the cost of servicing this debt could weigh on the stock's valuation.

Operational Risk: If the conflict expands to include attacks on regional infrastructure (refineries or pipelines), physical assets in the Middle East could be directly threatened.

www.ig.com

www.ig.com

+2

Key Levels to Watch: Keep a close eye on the 484p mark on Monday morning. A clean break above this level with high volume would signal that the market is pricing in a prolonged conflict and potentially a move toward 511p–525p.

The Motley Fool UK"

I'm currently holding 24,000 BP shares at an average cost of £3.91 per share. I have no idea how high the BP price might rise, or how quickly and how long it might hold higher. My crystal ball's on the fritz 🔮

As a side note the Iranians are playing a clever game by launching missiles at regional US partners, where US bases are located. I've been watching the news and buildings are being hit in other Gulf countries, not just aimed at Israel. The Iranians are making the conflict regional and causing other Gulf states to Knock on the US's door.

"How long will this last ? "

Depends on how long the war continues, would you sail a tanker full of oil through a war zone? Iran have plenty of capability to sink ships traversing the Strait. The question I'm asking myself is whether and when to sell my BP shares should the share price increase significantly. I suspect the market makers might attempt to hold the Oil stock prices down initially, while they load up and stock and then let prices rise when they decide the time is right.

I also suspect Airlines, shipping, Chemical producers and other sectors that underperform when oil prices rise, will take a hit, should the Oil price rise for a sustained period of time.

I asked AI what might happen to BP's share price on Monday:

"The BP share price is highly likely to see significant upward pressure when markets open on Monday, 2 March 2026, due to the massive geopolitical shock of the US-Israel strikes on Iran and the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Real Economy Blog

The Real Economy Blog

+1

Historically, such escalations in the Middle East trigger an immediate "war premium" in oil prices, and as a major oil producer, BP’s stock typically moves in tandem with crude prices.

Yahoo Finance UK

Yahoo Finance UK

+1

Strategic Impact of the Conflict

Oil Price Surge: Brent crude futures closed at $72.87 on Friday, 27 February. Analysts predict prices could jump by $10 to $20 per barrel or more when markets reopen, potentially testing $100 if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Strait of Hormuz Closure: Reports from maritime agencies (UKMTO and Aspides) indicate that Iran's Revolutionary Guards have broadcasted messages stating that "no ship is allowed to pass" through the Strait. This waterway handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, and any prolonged closure would create a severe supply shock.

Supply Disruptions: In addition to the Strait, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes against US bases and oil-rich neighboring states in the Gulf, further heightening fears of physical supply loss"