Member Info for fleccy

🥱 Farticus, are you another one obsessed with me? You seem to mention me a lot in your posts. I'm sorry to disappoint you but I'm married and straight. Bidboy shares your obsession with me so I suspect he might be your type, maybe you should ask him out on a date; Just maybe he'll jump at the chance to sniff the area associated with your username 👃💩

For anyone who's interested:

https://www.bt.com/about/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/results-events-and-financial-calendar/fy27

"Is any other FTSE 100 share so volatile? Not sure how to research that. Any ideas?"

I have no idea why BT's share price see's drops like it has recently, buy I'm not currently planning to sell any BT stock so I just view it as noise. If I was currently planning to buy, which I'm not since we're still showing a good capital gain on our existing BT holdings, and the price dropped below our current average price per share then my long term view hasn't changed and I would add more BT. As I've mentioned before, if BT dropped enough I'd even sell some of our other holdings to buy more BT, even though BT is already our largest holding. I'm not suggesting anyone else does what I do, I'm just explaining my view and I could be wrong, DYOR.

"BT have a proven record of failing to monetise their discoveries / products / investments over the. Last 20 years or so, when compared to companies that have managed to"

Which other companies are you referring to?

I have wondered how BT have monetised their patent library and I was unsure myself, so I asked AI:

"how does BT monetise its patent library

BT Group monetises its substantial patent library—which contains over 5,500 active patents and applications—through a combination of technology licensing, aggressive enforcement litigation, corporate venture spinouts, and defensive cross-licensing.

Historically rooted in its Adastral Park R&D hub, BT has recently shifted away from pure patent enforcement toward proactive business commercialisation.

1. Active Corporate Venture Building (Spinouts)BT’s modern IP strategy focuses heavily on venture building rather than traditional standalone licensing.

The Mechanism: BT hires specialist teams to systematically audit its software and networking patents.

The Goal: Instead of just collecting royalties, BT uses its proven IP assets as the foundational technology to spin out and launch independent software startups.

2. Traditional Technology Licensing Agreements

BT regularly licenses its core technologies to other telecommunications operators, hardware manufacturers, and software developers.

Standard-Essential Patents (SEPs): BT owns key patents underpinning global connectivity standards like 5G, VDSL/ADSL, and optical fibre networks. Companies building compatible equipment must license these portfolios under Fair, Reasonable, and Non-Discriminatory (FRAND) terms.

Emerging Technologies: BT actively seeks to commercialise its dominant UK footprint in Artificial Intelligence (holding over 700 AI-related patent assets) and Quantum Computing (such as Quantum Key Distribution).

3. Patent Enforcement and Infringement Litigation

When non-litigious negotiations ("soft licensing") fail, BT leverages its portfolio aggressively through the courts, targeting high-revenue tech giants.

The Valve Lawsuit: BT sued gaming giant Valve, claiming Steam's game library, messaging, and broadcasting features infringed on BT's foundational delivery patents.

The Google Dispute: BT engaged in major multi-patent litigation against Google, alleging that the Android operating system infringed on its location-based and data-streaming patents.

Outsourcing Enforcement: BT sometimes partners with third-party intellectual property management firms (like QED Intellectual Property) to handle the legal costs of chasing infringers in exchange for a percentage of the revenue.

4. Defensive Cross-Licensing

Not all monetization results in direct cash flow; significantly, BT uses its library to mitigate its own operational costs.

The Strategy: By holding thousands of patents, BT can enter defensive "cross-licensing" agreements with direct competitors (such as Google or other global telcos)"

"Everything else is a business plan, which is fundermentaly a good one but you need confidence current management can deliver it & of course, the competition is at war with BT as we all know, the first casualty of competition is the business plan"

BT are executing on the plans they telegraphed as far back as 5 years ago, there's no wavering from BT/Openreach's business plan. They're rolling out fibre faster than anyone else with 30 million premises passed by 2030; They're rolling out 5G across the country and will have more geographic coverage, due to lower costs, than anyone else based on their ownership of Openreach. Mobile isn't regulated like FTTP is, so an investment in 5G fibre to masts and cells is subsidised by the ownership of the company laying said fibre.

BT are leading the pack when it comes to Enterprise QKD solutions and are also churning out patents on innovative new technologies like Quantum RF receivers:

"How it Works: Instead of a traditional metal antenna, the receiver uses a glass cell filled with atoms (usually rubidium) that are excited into a highly energized "Rydberg" state. When a radio frequency (RF) wave passes through, it alters the optical properties of the atoms, converting the radio signal into optical"

"Groundbreaking Trials: BT conducted the world’s first standards-compliant mobile communications link (a three-way Microsoft Teams call over EE's 4G spectrum) utilizing a quantum optical receiver"

"Potential Benefits: The technology is theoretically capable of providing more than 100 times the sensitivity of traditional receivers. This could vastly improve "edge of cell" coverage for 5G and future mobile networks and provide ultra-sensitive, stealthy communications for defense"

"Development Timeline: While BT has secured several patents for the atomic RF receiver, it is still an emerging technology. BT researchers at the Martlesham facility are actively working to miniaturize the equipment and prepare it for real-world integration. Early commercial service or large-scale network deployment remains a few years away"

"BT Group expects to reach the stage of commercial deployment for its Quantum Rydberg Radio Receiver between 2027 and 2029.

The scientific proof of concept is already complete, and the technology is currently moving through advanced prototype testing. However, wide-scale rollout across the commercial EE mobile network depends heavily on building up a brand-new manufacturing pipeline"

I'd say BT are doing the right things, sometimes jam tomorrow is worth waiting for.

"Fleccy drowning out all constructive argument with his constant posts"

I've made 8 posts in the last week, so averaging just over 1 post a day, I would hardly describe that as drowning out constructive argument; Compare that with Bidboy who's posted 16 times in the last week and Farticus who's posted 15 times since the 17th June.

As for you Abject, you've posted 7 times in the last 30 days and in 5 of those posts you've mentioned me at least once in each post.

When you do post you don't talk about BT's achievements, you mainly focus on persuading people to invest in US Tech. I have no idea if the astronomical valuations in much of US Tech is sustainable in the long run, or if the AI Capex bubble will reap the ROI rewards priced into their Market Caps, but the odds are that something will eventually burst the US Tech bubbles, and because of the investment concentration a lot of investors will feel the pain.

BT. Behind Brilliant Things

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aALy4plc9KY

"Fleccy justifiably requires criticism"

Abject if you disagree with my point of view around BT's future prospects, why don't you sell all the BT shares you claim to own and plough the cash into the US tech stocks you regularly promote on a BT forum?

"At least Fleccy is a real person, granted not a very bright one, but still real"

Farticus something stinks about you, I'm bright enough to know you're likely something expelled from bidboy's @r5e, your username gives it away.

"Re Starlink, it will have 40,000 satellites in orbit within three years! That's what you call global coverage. Afraid that BT is yet again being left behind in the wake of technology that's way ahead of FTTH"

Bidboy, I love discussing the Starlink narratives and the hype around AI in space. Tell me how having 40,000 satellites in space hurt FTTP and 5/6G and I'll tell you why you're wrong.

As for the AI datacenters on Low Earth Orbit satellites, seems like a really good idea you have loads of solar power to power the chips, possibly solving the powering problems with AI datacenters on Earth, right? Hang on AI chips run hot so they need really good cooling, lets just put them on the colder side of the satellite because it's cold in space, right? Hang on there's no water or air in space to conduct the heat away from the chips, so they'll have to come up with some other amazing innovative way to conduct the heat away from the chips, I'm not sure they've come up with a commercially viable solution yet; I believe even SpaceX said unproven AI space data centers "may not be commercially viable"

https://www.reuters.com/world/spacex-says-unproven-ai-space-data-centers-may-not-be-commercially-viable-filing-2026-04-21/

Starlink is amazing technology for less densely populated areas and maritime/aviation, but it's no threat to Telecom companies in countries like the UK, Japan, Singapore, most European countries, etc etc etc. Starlink may partner with companies like BT, but they're no threat; Physics, spectrum availability and many other reasons mean Starlink will always be a niche player in developed countries.

Our BT shares are still showing an overall capital gain of £31,000, split between a standard share dealing account and an ISA. If BT keeps dropping, at some unspecified point I'm going to look at selling other stocks and buying BT, I'm currently a long way off from that, but my view of BT's future potential hasn't changed and I know what I'll do if and when I believe the time is right.

I'm unsure why BT is currently getting hammered, as well as other Telcom stocks to a lesser degree, but I've theorised it has something to do with the SpaceX IPO and the false narrative that StarLink is somehow a threat to terrestrial providers, which couldn't be further from the truth; Another possibility is that the imminent end to the Iran War is also hurting Telecom stock valuations, so anyone who doubts the defensive properties of Telecom companies might bear that in mind. Of course all of this is just my personal opinion, DYOR.

The US markets are partying like it's 1999, I wonder when this irrational exuberance will result in the inevitable hangover?

Pick your indicators to forecast when the S&P and NASDAQ will crash in true DOTCOM fashion.

Actually it's the US markets that are corrupt, you only have to look at the NASDAQ Fast Entry rule changes, allowing massive IPOs to join the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, down from the previous three-month seasoning wait. It also eliminated the 10% minimum public float rule and applies a weighting multiplier up to 3x for floats under 20% . These rule changes force massive investment from Passive Market Cap weighted investment funds and therefore skew the market for new entries. These rule changes are designed to suck cash into IPO's, like the much hyped SpaceX one and the soon to happen Anthropic and Open AI IPO's.

The top of the US markets are so overvalued it defies belief and Space X is just the latest example. The race/hype and Capex heavy investments around AI is also turning Mag7 companies into something resembling rolling Capex intensive Telecom companies of old. As Telecom companies complete roll out of FTTP and 5/6G, their high historic rolling Capex will turn to a trickle due to the high bandwidth capabilities of the new Network technologies/hierarchies. Basically as the Telecom companies become more cash flow positive, the big investments in AI datacenters and compute are pushing many of the US tech companies toward cash flow negative. The likes of Nvidia and the hardware suppliers will do very, it's debateable if others will see the returns the hype suggests.

Space X is a good example of what I'm saying, the three combined units generated $18.67 billion in consolidated revenue for the full year of 2025, which is less than BT's revenue. Starlink is unlikely to make big inroads into developed countries like the UK, Japan, South Korea and the whole of Europe, where Fibre and 5/6G offers cheaper and better service offerings. The narrative that Starlink will eat conventional Telecom company profits is false and completely misleading. Starlink is currently the biggest earner in Space X and is doing well, but the satellites have an operating lifespan of around 5 years and require rolling Capex ad infinitum, unlike Fibre and 5.6G infrastructure which is just a one off infrastructure Capex.

Moan, moan, moan moan moan

https://www.commsbusiness.co.uk/content/interview/enabling-competition-neos-networks-matt-rees-exchange-closures-backhaul

https://www.thinkbroadband.com/news/vmo2-investment-partner-warns-about-openreach-blocking-competition

"I actually put an order in for SPCX with AJBell and then bottled it, so had to phone the dealing services team to get it cancelled" "I quite often get it wrong lol"

Did you get it wrong? Would you have invested for the short term, planning to make a fast exit while the hype raises the price? Or are you a long term investor who invests based on fundamentals rather than dreams?

I used to work in Telecoms, including line of sight terrestrial microwave links and I take issue with the Starlink Total Addressable Market figure of $1.6 trillion. Due to the bandwidth limitations of Radio Frequency communications and atmospheric constraints as higher frequencies are used, not to mention free space path loss, the Serviceable Obtainable Market is likely a fraction of that figure.

Starlink can excel in commercial services to airlines, ships and things like backhaul for rural 5G cell masts, but Starlink will never be a threat to Terrestrial telecommunication providers offering cellular and fixed line fibre services.

Starlink will also come under competitive pressure from other Satellite providers, like OneWeb and Amazon Leo, and although these competitors wont have as many satellites as Starlink, they wont need too since they aren't targeting residential customers.

Don't get me wrong, I think Starlink is an amazing business, but the actual addressable market for their business is far less than the touted $1.6 trillion figure. AI says "When accounting for user density limits, geographic limitations, and consumer affordability, industry consensus from network analysts (including Quilty Space and Analysys Mason) puts Starlink’s realistic annual Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) ceiling between $30 billion and $50 billion. This means that out of the theoretical $1.6 trillion global telecom market, the maximum annual revenue Starlink can actually capture is roughly 2% to 3%", my guess is the business would have to do really well to achieve even that.

Using the UK as an example of issues affecting Starlink's addressable market; In the UK once the Fibre and 5G rollouts are completed, most of the UK landmass will have options that are both cheaper and superior to services that LEO's can provide; And unlike LEO Satellites Fibre and 5G masts need a one off capex, whereas Starlink satellites have to be de-orbited and replaced approximately every 5 years meaning continuous rolling Capex. Anyone who suggests that Satellite will dominate and replace terrestrial communications either doesn't understand the industry, or are purposely presenting a false narrative.

As far as the other parts of the business, I have no idea, but the AI side of the business is apparently a money pit and there's only so much hardware you can put into space at a reasonable price, so the rocket business success will likely be measured in margin return.

I just think it's a risky bet that I wouldn't take.

I'm not sure why bidboy and AbjectPerformer feel the need to keep bringing me up in their posts; A good description of these two would be stalking Trolls, since instead of presenting technical arguments against my view, they resort to insults and accusations of multiple usernames. They're both a bit sad, we should feel sorry for them.

Richard Tang interview with Juliette Scott

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkL-9O-FAzo

"“there wasn’t sufficient focus on actually connecting subscribers to the network,” kleinjan added, capturing the fundamental flaw in the altnet expansion model that has since come back to haunt investors and lenders alike.

“there’s an injection of reality that has now landed quite heavily into the market,” said stuart ****burn, a partner at alixpartners in london, describing the sector’s sharp reversal of fortunes.

deutsche glasfaser’s debt overhaul, agreed in april, saw sponsors provide 845 million euros in preferred equity, but only in exchange for lenders agreeing to subordinate 1.7 billion euros of debt and providing 400 million euros in new financing"

https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/06/10/european-broadband-debt-crisis-deepens-as-banks-offload-loans-to-distressed-funds/

Https://www.telecoms.com/fibre/major-uk-altnets-said-to-be-on-the-block

"We have been talking about consolidation in the UK fibre market for many months. Late last year Enders Analysis noted that mounting costs and accounting losses meant consolidation would be the only solution for many of the market's smaller players. Interestingly, the company pointed to Hyperoptic as one of few players in the sector to be able to claim to be EBITDA positive, but nonetheless described its 2% margin from the previous year as "underwhelming.""

The rats are leaving.

"Warburg has hired bankers and approached potential suitors for Community Fibre, which serves about 450,000 customers and is one of the most financially stable “altnets” in the UK market, according to people familiar with the matter. New Street Research estimates the London-based operator has an enterprise value of about £2bn.

KKR had also made contact with several potential buyers of its broadband provider Hyperoptic, which serves more than 400,000 customers, three of the people added"

https://www.ft.com/content/b5ded4ec-fcfc-434b-a05d-adb6ea6714a8?syn-25a6b1a6=1