Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Jansen/BT have well telegraphed their strategy going back as far as 2019/20, it isn't his fault if the market chose to ignore the updates.
From 2019 results
"“Our aim is to deliver the best converged network and be the leader in fixed ultrafast and mobile 5G networks. We are increasingly confident in the environment for investment in the UK. We have already announced the first 16 UK cities for 5G investment. Today we are announcing an increased target to pass 4m premises with ultrafast FTTP technology by 2020/21, up from 3m, and an ambition to pass 15 million premises by the mid-2020s, up from 10 million, if the conditions are right, especially the regulatory and policy enablers."
https://www.bt.com/about/investors/financial-reporting-and-news/results-events-and-financial-calendar/2018-19#tab-18-19-accordion-1
Jansen had only been in the job for a couple of months at that point, obviously they've speeded things up since than entailing spending more on Capex. I'm not happy when my dividends are reduced, but I can see where the cash is going. I didn't work for BT, so I can only go off what I've seen and heard over the last 5 years, but I've agreed with Jansen's plan to rollout Fibre and 5G as fast as possible.
They're developing and testing new tech at Adastral Park, they're rolling out FTTP and 5G faster than anyone else, and finding cost savings as the transformation progresses. I'd be interested to know what more BT can do?
Gary59 I'm invested in Vodafone and BT. In my opinion BT's strategy has a much smoother glide path than Vodafone's.
BT's pension deficit reduction program is on track with annual top-ups of £780 Million, from 2025 to 2031 and then reducing to £180 Million.
https://newsroom.bt.com/bt-group-announces-triennial-pension-valuation/#:~:text=The%20funding%20deficit%20at%2030,490m%20before%2030%20April%202030.
As far as lease liabilities, they'll reduce massively as the building closure program progresses after 2030. The £5 Billion a year FTTP and 5G rollout capex will also reduce after 2026 and BT are also in the midst of a cost saving plan to save £3 Billion annually by the end of 2025.
https://news.sky.com/story/bt-to-upgrade-cost-savings-target-to-3bn-as-inflationary-pressures-bite-12736609#
The weirdest OFCOM action I've seen, that makes me wonder about their attitude toward BT, is what happened with Jansen in respect of the end in tears comment.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2023/openreach-independence-well-established#:~:text=The%20comments%20of%20BT's%20Chief,Ofcom%20and%20industry%20significant%20concern.
The Jansen comment was reported in Feb 2023
https://www.benton.org/headlines/bt-chief-warns-openreach-fibre-push-will-%E2%80%98end-tears%E2%80%99-rivals
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/255528/letter-philip-jansen-to-melanie-dawes-060223.pdf
By the end of March, Jansen was on his way out of the door.
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2023/03/bt-group-uk-reportedly-hunting-for-new-ceo-to-replace-jansen.html
It appears that Altnets can do as much goading as they want, but any kickback from BT and OFCOM are all over them. It wouldn't surprise me if Jansen went due to the "end in tears" comment, and the subsequent OFCOM delaying action on Equinox pricing following the comment.
OFCOM don't appear to be friendly toward BT and seem to treat them as if they're a Government department rather than a publicly traded company with shareholders.
To add to my previous post in this thread; I've been a bit bored this afternoon so I decided to to build a chart to roughly measure AKO's paper profit on their shorts, not including interest, but the Total column takes the dividend into account. The chart should update every minute as BT's price changes.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsw9LqqM3qfp1pbyg2fC4UnADyTjldJjpbBz0ejR1F7KI6w6k1OhPW65Iz80lXOgTJh19gwwG7o85U/pubchart?oid=1398899881&format=interactive
Something else to bear in mind, with reference to dividends and short positions, the entity holding the short position is liable for the dividend.
If the dividend is held and the price doesn't decline sufficiently in the meantime; Ako capital as an example, holding a 0.91% short position on ex dividend day, will be on the hook to payout nearly £5 Million pounds in dividends to whoever they borrowed stock from.
Here's a chart summarising Ako's short positions, I used the day closing price to estimate the number of shares purchased and how much they've so far paid out in divi's:
Fund . . Date Changed . Close . Change. . . . . Quantity. . . . Short Price
Ako . . . 7 Mar 2024 . . . . 107.5 . . 0.09% . . . . . . 8,956,646 . . £9,628,394
Ako . . . 23 Feb 2024 . . . 106.9 . . 0.12% . . . . . 11,942,194. . .£12,766,206
Ako . . . 6 Feb 2024 . . . . 107.05 . 0.09% . . . . . . 8,956,646 . . £9,588,089
Ako . . . 23 Jan 2024 . . . 115.6 . . 0.11% . . . . . 10,947,012 . . £12,654,745
Ako . . . 11 Dec 2023 . . . 131.35 . 0.50% . . . . . 49,759,143 . . £65,358,635
Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.91% . . . . . 90,561,641 . . £109,996,07
They would also have had to cover the Ex Dividend payout for their 0.5% short position on the 28th Dec 2023, coming in around £1.15 Million. Ako appear to be well in profit from their first short position taken out on the 11th Dec 2023.
I'm only guessing with the above since I've never shorted a stock, I'll happily be corrected if I've misunderstood something.
Lloyds stock price had performed inline with Barclays over the last 5 years, the price would now be around 77p, and if it matched Natwest the price would now be over 69p.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLOY:LON?comparison=LON%3ABARC%2CLON%3ANWG&window=5Y
I can't see any valid reasons for Lloyds underperforming Barclays and Natwest.
It's still around a 5.5% Yield at the current price and there's a good chance Vodafone's stock price is around the bottom, especially with £4 Billion in buybacks on the horizon. If you invest through an ISA, there's a reasonable chance that an investment in Vodafone will outperform Bonds.
Wacky Races
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZNf0G6Vnq8
"Openreach has deployed fibre to “just under” 14 million premises, of which four million are “right here in the north”, and the operator’s £15bn build programme is on track to pass 25 million homes by 2026, she said.
Grimes distinguished the operator’s rollout as the “fastest” in Europe and the only one in the UK that has committed to a “proportional build of rural and urban footprint” as it rolls out fibre to “anywhere that is economically viable”.
She also flagged Openreach’s 34% takeup rate, which is the figure the operator reported in its quarterly results for the three months to 31 December 2023. The operator expects this to grow to “50%-plus in the coming years”."
“ Altnets are in a difficult spot right now, given the cost of money, under-penetration, and dreams not coming to fruition. It’s a moment of peril in terms of people thinking that there’s plenty of capital to build. All those billions [from investors] that came into the UK, they’re scratching their heads right now thinking about what has happened to my investments.”
https://www.telcotitans.com/btwatch/openreach-targets-30m-full-fibre-premises-nexfibre-calls-for-altnet-ramp-up/8014.article
"The Group recognised remediation costs of £25 million in the first three months (three months to 31 March 2023: £19 million), in relation to pre-existing programmes. There have been no further charges relating to the potential impact of the FCA review into historical motor finance commission arrangements, with the FCA having indicated it will update in September."