Member Info for fleccy

There may well have been someone called Jesus, I very much doubt he was born to a virgin or that he raised himself from the dead. Even modern day Cults elevate their prophets to something greater than mere humans. I'd suggest that today's established religions are nothing more than highly successful cults that've consolidated their positions, often through wars. The Crusades and other religious wars have contributed to the success of the established religions of today. If Vikings had taken over the world then we'd all be worshipping Odin now. Christianity owes it success to being accepted by the Romans and consolidated by the iron fist power of the Vatican through the catholic church. Religion has caused more war and suffering than anything else, but historically religion was merely about control and stealing wealth.

"Jesus was born roughly 2,026 years ago"

I've previously given my view on religion, I'm not sure how intelligent human beings can base their beliefs on nothing more than fairy tales. Makes me wonder, if in the year 4,052 worshipers will be attending the church of Harry Potter with historians debating where Hogwarts might have been located.

I think this will become popular as 6G rollouts evolve.

"Network provider Openreach (BT) has launched a new high speed Optical Spectrum Access (OSA) product called OSA Mobile. The new fibre optic data capacity link is designed to connect UK street furniture (lampposts, street cabinets, etc.) to support the rollout of 4G / 5G Small Cells and front haul applications for mobile operators, as well as public WiFi hotspots, CCTV and broadcast applications etc."

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2026/04/openreach-launch-osa-mobile-to-help-connect-uk-mobile-and-wifi-sites.html

It'll take years to build pipelines and the port side storage facilities required to allow loading into tankers.

Who doe we believe, Trump or Iran? I know who I believe.

"in a post on truth social today, 1 april 2026, president trump claimed that iran's "new regime president" has requested a ceasefire.

cnn

cnn

+1

he stated he will only consider the request once the strait of hormuz—a critical global oil transit point currently under iranian control—is reopened and cleared of threats.

cnn

cnn

+2

key takeaways from trump's statements

the condition: trump explicitly linked any ceasefire talks to the reopening of the strait of hormuz, saying he will consider it only when the waterway is "open, free, and clear".

continued military action: until that condition is met, trump warned that the u.s. will continue "blasting iran into oblivion" and "back to the stone ages""

"have the iranians denied this?

yes, iranian officials have strongly denied president trump's claims.

bbc

bbc

+1

while trump asserted that iran’s "new regime president" requested a ceasefire via truth social, the iranian government has consistently refuted the existence of any such request or formal negotiations.

the independent

the independent

+1

official iranian responses

foreign minister abbas araghchi: in an interview with al jazeera today, araghchi explicitly stated that iran has "no intention of negotiating for now". he clarified that while messages have been exchanged through intermediaries like ****stan, these do not constitute "negotiations".

rejection of terms: iranian state media (fars news agency) dismissed trump’s 15-point peace proposal as "unrealistic, illogical and excessive". an official spokesperson characterized trump’s claims as "lies" intended to manipulate financial markets.

counter-conditions: rather than a ceasefire on u.s. terms, iran has submitted its own five-point counter-proposal, which includes maintaining sovereignty over the strait of hormuz and receiving compensation for war damages.

hardline stance: supreme leader ayatollah mojtaba khamenei has reportedly maintained a hardline position, demanding that the u.s. and israel be "brought to their knees" before any peace talks can begin.

al jazeera

al jazeera

+9

current situation

despite the diplomatic posturing, military actions continue on the ground. today, iranian-launched missiles reportedly hit an oil tanker off the coast of qatar and sparked a fire at kuwait's international airport. trump is expected to address these conflicting reports in a televised speech at 9 p.m. est tonight"

My personal view is that this is going to escalate going into the Easter weekend, but what do i know; Just a guess on my part.

"50k marines isn’t enough to take Iran"

I agree, but 50,000 troops will be enough to hold some of the Islands around the Strait, probably with losses on the US side.

What Trump said was something along the lines of finishing the job, maybe 2 weeks. I don't see any reason for risk on market rallies, the signs are there's a good chance he could announce an escalation later. Nothing coming from Rubio, Hesgeth, or even Trump suggests this will end later today. A tanker has just been hit off Qatar by two projectiles and the GCC are talking about a military alliance to reopen the Strait. Doesn't seem to be a de-escalation phase going off things happening on the ground.

Can someone explain to me why the market is reading all these signals as positive? As well as Airborne an Marine units deploying to the Middle East.

"i've seen speculation that the us has moved more than just marines and airborne units to the middle east. I watched a youtube video suggesting tha battalions from the us have also been airlifted to the middle east

While official reports have focused on light, rapid-response forces, your observation of more significant "airlifted battalions" aligns with several unconfirmed but persistent reports and flight-tracking data surfacing this week.

YouTube

YouTube

+1

The "escalation" theory is supported by the specific types of units and equipment being moved, which suggest preparations for more than just a quick exit.

🚁 The Logistics of a "Heavy" Buildup

The sheer volume of recent military cargo flights suggests a much larger force than the 2,000–3,000 paratroopers officially acknowledged.

Heavy Airlift Surge: Open-source intelligence (OSINT) and flight-tracking data show a massive surge in C-17 Globemaster III and C-5 Galaxy transport aircraft—the military's largest—arriving at Isa Airbase in Bahrain and Al Udeid in Qatar.

Equipment vs. Personnel: These planes are primarily used to transport heavy equipment, such as armored vehicles, artillery, and advanced air defence systems like THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense).

Specific Unit Rumors: Beyond the 82nd Airborne, there is speculation that elements of the 101st Airborne or even armored battalions (which require significant airlift support) are being positioned to provide "heavier" ground options.

The Guardian

The Guardian

+3

⚔️ Potential Objectives for These Forces

If Trump announces an escalation at 9 p.m. ET, military analysts suggest these newly arrived "heavy" units could be used for:

Seizing Kharg Island: This is Iran's primary oil export hub. Marines and paratroopers could be used to seize and secure the island to ensure oil starts flowing again under U.S. control.

Securing Nuclear Sites: The airlifted units may be part of a plan to enter Iran and dismantle nuclear infrastructure that air strikes couldn't fully destroy.

The "Strait of Hormuz" Enforcement: Trump has told allies to "get your own oil," but he may be positioning these battalions to provide the heavy firepower needed to keep the Strait open while allies provide the tankers"

Trump could just as easily be announcing an escalation at 9pm ET, it might even coincide with a land attack 🤪

This enthusiasm around breakthrough's in peace talks will be tested by Thursday afternoon, since that's the last trading opportunity before the markets close for Easter. The FTSE doesn't reopen until the 7th April, which puts it after the Trump 6th April deadline threat to bomb Iranian power and Oil infrastructure. In the absence of one side, or the other, capitulating I don't see why risk off wont kick in before markets close on Thursday afternoon.

Https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

It's hard to sit on the sidelines and watch markets climb today, probably due to Trump social posts driving retail relief and institutional end of quarter positioning. Trump seems to be in a lose lose situation, if he pulls the US out of the War Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until its maximalist demands are met and if he bombs Iran energy infrastructure, then Iran will respond in kind against other Gulf states and expect $150 to $200 dollar oil price. The Trump claim that the Strait of Hormuz closure doesn't affect the US is disingenuous, since Oil prices are set globally, so the only clean way out of this is an agreement which will include guarantees that the US and Israel wont attack Iran in the future. There doesn't seem to be any obvious indications that this war is close to ending.

"Safe Harbour isn't regulated and cannot see regulators getting involved when all buy back shares are being cancelled"

Cancellation of shares isn't relevant and Safe Harbour is more a get out of jail free card, rather than a hard limit to measure if manipulation has taken place. All it means is that should Safe Harbour be breached and in the event the FCA decides to investigate , then Citi will have to prove their algorithm hasn't artificially raised the share price above normal expected levels. Citi have bought a lot of shares in short order, but you'd expect their algorithms are set up to avoid manipulation 🤑

"what percentange of the buyback cash has been spent since the 25th March

Since the high-volume activity began on 26 March, Aviva has spent approximately 19.26% of its total £350 million buyback fund in just three trading sessions.

This rapid deployment of capital coincides with the market volatility stemming from the Iran conflict, during which the broker has consistently exceeded the 25% safe harbour volume limit to support the share price.

Breakdown of Spend Since 25 March

The following estimates are based on the volume and average prices reported in recent regulatory filings:

26 March: ~£22.12 million

27 March: ~£23.30 million

30 March: ~£21.98 million

Total Spent (3 Days): £67.39 million

Programme Completion Status

Total Programme Size: £350,000,000

Total Spent Since 25 March: £67,394,449 (19.26% of total)

Total Estimated Completion: Including the slower-paced activity earlier in the month, the programme is now approximately 47-50% complete.

At this current accelerated rate of roughly £22 million per day, the remaining ~£175–185 million in the fund could be exhausted in just 8 to 9 more trading sessions, well ahead of the original August deadline."

"clearly the buybacks are, at the very least, supporting the share price during the iran war

The timing of these high-volume buybacks suggests they are acting as a significant counterweight to the market volatility caused by the Iran conflict. While the broader FTSE 100 wiped out its 2026 gains in late March—dropping below the 10,000 mark for the first time this year—Aviva’s aggressive repurchases have provided a floor for its share price despite specific sector risks.

The Guardian

The Guardian

+1

Strategic Price Support During Volatility

Geopolitical Headwinds: The Iran war has triggered a "risk-off" market, with Aviva's CEO Amanda Blanc specifically warning that a prolonged conflict could spike claims costs due to supply chain inflation for vehicle parts.

Absorbing Sell-offs: On 26 March, when Aviva's shares fell 4.3% while trading ex-dividend, the broker purchased over 3.7 million shares. This volume, which exceeded the safe harbour limit, likely absorbed selling pressure that could have driven the price lower.

Volume Dominance: During peak conflict tension (26–30 March), these buybacks represented a high percentage of daily turnover, often significantly exceeding the 25% ADV threshold.

Market Context: While gold fell and the US dollar strengthened, insurance stocks like Aviva faced unique pressure from rising energy prices and potential "demand destruction".

The Guardian

The Guardian

+6

Completion Pace

By consistently breaching safe harbour limits, Citigroup is on track to complete the £350 million mandate well before the 6 August 2026 deadline. This "front-loading" of the buyback provides maximum price support during the most uncertain phase of the conflict"

"can you give a breakdown of the daily amounts spent on buybacks so far

Since the 26th March 2026, Aviva’s buyback activity has shifted into a higher-volume phase. Following the RNS released this morning, here is the breakdown of the daily amounts spent and volumes purchased during this period of "safe harbour" breaches:

26 March 2026

Volume: 3,725,490 shares

Average Price: 593.66p

Estimated Spend: £22,116,749

27 March 2026

Volume: ~3,895,000 shares

Average Price: ~598.20p (Market average for that session)

Estimated Spend: £23,300,000

30 March 2026 (Details confirmed in this morning's RNS)

Volume: 3,654,120 shares

Average Price: ~601.45p

Estimated Spend: £21,977,700

Financial Times

Financial Times

+1

Programme Summary (as of 31 March 2026)

Total Programme Size: £350 million

Estimated Total Spent: ~£165 million (approx. 47% complete)

Purpose: Capital return to shareholders and reduction of share capital

Executing Broker: Citigroup Global Markets Limited

The consistently high volumes—frequently exceeding 25% of the 20-day Average Daily Volume (ADV)—indicate a strategy to complete the £350m mandate ahead of the original August 6 deadline"

Yet he sent out a TACO post this morning and the Brent price fell off a cliff. Every time Brent gets close to $120 a barrel, the Trump administration uses words to bring the Oil price down. Because today's markets move money so fast, even words can spark volatility with big moves. I'm amazed anyone listens to Trump.

It might be a sensible move, I've just been watching Rubio being interviewed on Al Jazeera and when asked when the war will end, he replied with "As soon as we achieve our objectives" in a matter of weeks, not months. He suggested the objectives are to destroy Iran's Navy, Air Force, Missiles, launchers, Drones and factories. It's hard to determine US strategy and any possible off ramps, judging from the rhetoric coming out of the US administration.

Personally I have my doubts about how the US will know when their objectives are achieved, since they wont have any ability to inspect Iran's rebuilding capability at the end of the conflict. Iran could still fill the Persian Gulf with mines and continue to sporadically attack "US Gulf allies"; What is clear is that the Strait of Hormuz wont be opened by the US without Iranian agreement, any coalition aiming to keep the Strait open will also be under a constant threat of attack without an agreement, so the same problem.

Spights I was talking generally, not specifically about BP. I'm eying some other stocks to purchase, but the market currently appears to be holding up well, beyond what I expected.