Member Info for Flavius

One thing I have learnt in the last one year: whatever the target price set by Jefferies (obviously lower than the previous one), TLW SP will get there. Apparently it's the only thing that matters, more than production, more than arbitrates, more than anything else. When they're done making money short, when they increase the TP, then the tide will turn.

18p vs. 55p makes a 300% difference.

It's not hard to guess that potentially senseless evaluations may inadvertently serve the purpose of clearing the way for extremely cheap takeovers. And I guess there should be some authority to vigilate, detect and address any legal issues and implications in terms of market manipulation.

What is actually adding insult to injury is the OP. Markets keep relentlessly shorting oil in order to keep WTI below the psychological level of 70$. Every attempt to start a rally is regularly killed in the cradle by CTFs, whatever the actual demand/supply balance, whatever the actions put in place by OPEC+. This trend is materially affecting the FCF and obviously doesn't help overall.

We will know soon:

"The Board remains confident in Tullow's standalone business. Tullow is well positioned to optimise its capital structure and continues to progress plans to address its remaining debt maturities, following receipt of the outcome on the Branch Profits Remittance tax arbitration. Tullow has been informed by the ICC that it has received the draft decision from the arbitration tribunal and the ICC is now undertaking its customary final review. The Company expects to be notified of the results of the award imminently and further updates will be made in due course"

...which explains yesterday's Vanguard disclosure: they knew ahead, and they purchased KOS shares to speculate on today's likely SP jump.

Anybody has an idea about yesterday's disclosure by Vanguard about both KOS and TLW? Wonder about the implications...

The more KOS tanks, the better it is as more shares would be issued to TLW shareholders. PS: the more it tanks, the more likely the TO.

KOS SP fall (-50%) started in June, just like TLW (-50% as well). One more evidence that real negotiations (and associated rumors) date back to quite some time ago. SP fall for KOS discounts a likely dilution associated with issuance of new shares, which supports the argument that TLW shareholders could receive a cash payment (the equivalent of the current SP for example) plus a "premium" provided under the shape of an issuance of new KOS shares. This would actually explains everything: the timing of SP fall for the two companies, timing of CEO departure, timing of Ghana elections and dispute resolution. All planets seem to be aligned for this sort of outcome. We will know soon.

At this stage we can try to figure out whatever, but agreements were most probably made long ago and they were just waiting for the right moment (read dispute resolution and political change in Ghana) to bring it to the public. The two companies have very close relationships, they jointly operate major assets in Ghana, they had plenty of time and opportunities to meet and discuss operational and strategic issues, for many years. No one can honestly believe they are just now "starting to explore opportunities for preliminary non-binding..bla bla bla..." The CEO is going, Ghana elections went *well* , arbitration outcome most probably is already known. Add that the floating shares are very little as most of the ownership is concentrated in a few hands and accordingly decisions can be made swiftly. Everything points to a quick conclusion. Let's just wait and see what happens in the next three weeks.

Supercooper I agree 100%. There's plenty of comments online about the takeover claiming that TLW is burdened by "several billions debt" , in shambles, practically broken. There must be some reason why "the market" is playing dirty games against TLW. All this catastrophic narrative plays of course into the hands of Kosmos, as it actually did the SP action for the last few months. Just two words for all of this: "market manipulation". They want to buy super-cheap. It's up to the BoD avoid a bloodbath for the shareholders.

Kosmos closed deep red: -4.5%, suggesting the market is taking seriously the possibility of a takeover. TLW closed even deeper red, suggesting that the usual scammers and manipulators are taking it seriously too, and are trying their last tricks. In the next 4 weeks everything will be clearer.

OP in the meantime is back to 75.

I will sleep well.

Total nonsense. Wood Group refused two takeovers with 100% premium over the SP. 30p was TLW SP just a few weeks ago. It's plain ridiculous even just thinking of an offer lower than 50p. This reasoning just legitimates the ridiculous manipulation of the SP we've seen in the last few weeks.

(By the way, who on Earth would not be selling by the closure for 23.44 when the price is 24.4? Pathetic clowns)

Anyone having access to this? https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/kosmos-is-natural-acquirer-for-beleaguered-tullow-but-rival-bidders-loom/2-1-1753565

Redacted, I get your point and I overall agree with you.

On the other hand Kosmos has 700 MUSD of liquidity: they can very well use it for the takeover (some about 50p offer) and open additional credit lines for debt refinancing purpose. I guess there is space for a take-over with "real money" as you say.

For the rest, as LTH we should all be indifferent to the ridiculous manipulation we're witnessing today. Personally in the long-term I see this share easily back to 60p and even to 3-digit upon successful exploration in Ivory Coast (and let's not forget Gabon with Sarafina discovery not yet fully commercially assessed). OP scenario is improving, cost of money overall scenario is improving as well. TLW takeover will be accordingly more expensive in the future, and this supports the scenario of a quick agreement between the parties.

With a view to the above, I comfortably sit by the window and wait. I will make more opportunistic buys as manipulators and scammers play their usual dirty games. In the long term, take over or not, patience will pay off.

Looking in the rearview mirror is nonsense. These guys are adding 20,000 boped of LNG starting from...tomorrow.

Supercooper they are actually two different animals. Kosmos capitalization reflects a much better, diversified portfolio generating plenty of FCF in the next few months. They're adding the equivalent of 20,000 boepd as LNG starting from the next few weeks. Let's not forget that TLW debt structure is much stronger than in the past, and FCF is very healthy considering extremely low CAPEX. Exploration portfolio is quite interesting for a "bigger fish" already operating in several African countries with a focus on the Atlantic Margin.

Overall, the TO makes a lot of sense. There's disappointment today for the ones speculating on a "deal done" scenario in the last few days. It's not a "deal done", true, but it's definitely a proof of the strong appeal of TLW at the current SP.

That they "do not have money" is a totally baseless statement. Just taken from the latest report by Fitch:

Liquidity and Debt Structure

Strong Liquidity: Kosmos has no debt maturities until 2025 except for its undrawn USD164 million RCF expiring at end-2024. Following the April refinancing of its USD1.35 billion committed (USD750 million drawn) RBL, it will start amortising in 2027. The new USD500 million notes further reduced Kosmos's closest bond maturity in 2026 by USD400 million to USD250 million, and reduced 2027-2028 maturities by a combined USD100 million. We expect Kosmos to partially repay the remaining 2026 notes with cash and to proactively manage its 2027-2028 maturities.

Let's not forget the exploration portfolio in Ivory Coast which is extremely attractive for a company already operating in Ghana and on the Atlantic Margin in general. What is more, Greater Turtle LNG is worth 2,5 MTPA production, starting next year, with Kosmos owning 25% stake there: it's a cash-cow (several hundreds of millions per year revenues worth).

They're continuously opening short positions at any SP bump-up: manipulation at its best. Just incredible. But this is actually what they have been doing for many months now.

Shorters piling up additional short positions to save their already-opened short positions. A very easy game if floating shares are very few. It serves the purpose of discouraging retail from entering the game.