Member Info for Flavius

The same ones who bought on the rumor. Now they're selling the news. Press releases from TLW and KOS were very cautious, reason why many are happy to leave with their gains rather than jumping on the rollercoaster. And then you get the same manipulators that destroyed the SP in the last few months just keep playing their usual game: as long as the volumes are low, they can do it easily.

Kosmos will quickly reduce the debt as the LNG Project in Mauritania is started and big revenues are generated in "cost oil" mode. Speculations about yesterday's drop in SP are just nonsense: it's an obvious market reaction to a TO rumor.

For the rest, everything points to a strategy dating back to past few months: the relentless shorting with ridiculous volumes was a flashing alarm that someone was interested in depressing the SP to prepare the ground for a cheap acquisition. Add that Kosmos opened a new line of credit worth several hundred millions in the meantime. Add the CEO departing. Add the change in political landscape in Ghana and most probably a deliberation on the pending dispute that has already been communicated to the interested parties.

Regarding the SP, Wood recent takeover attempts (more than twice as much as the original SP was put in the table) and the SP peaks reached in the last two years, it would be sound to expect something in the 55-65 range.

Sorry for messing up with copy and paste, let me recap here:

- Considering RD step-down, most probably the deal is done

- Considering Kosmos interests in Ghana, the deal was most probably subject to a favourable political outcome from presidential elections, which just materialized

- Apparently Kosmos is not much dissimilar from TLW (65,000 BPD, but 2.7 billion debt and ... 715 million USD liquidity, but the incoming startup of the LNG Project of Greater Tortue in Mauritania is going to boost revenues soon

- Regarding the takeover SP, it's hardly imaginable that it will be less than recent top SP of 60p. How much does that account for? More ore less 700 million... The equivalent of liquidity set aside by Kosmos. Just a coincidence?

Just a few points:

- Considering RD step-down, most probably the deal is done

- Considering Kosmos interests in Ghana, the deal was most probably subject to a favourable political outcome from presidential elections, which just materialized

- Apparently Kosmos is not much dissimilar from TLW (65,000 BPD, but 2.7 billion debt and ... 715 million USD liquidity, but the incoming startup of the LNG Project Just a few points:

- Considering RD step-down, most probably the deal is done

- Considering Kosmos interests in Ghana, the deal was most probably subject to a favourable political outcome from presidential elections, which just materialized

- Apparently Kosmos is not much dissimilar from TLW (65,000 BPD, but 2.7 billion debt and .. 700 million liquidity). But the incoming startup of Greater Tortue I. Mauritania is going to boost revenues soon

- Regarding the takeover SP, it's hardly imaginable that it will be less than recent top SP of 60p. How much does that account for? More ore less 700 million... The equivalent of liquidity set aside by Kosmos. Just a coincidence?

Meanwhile 7% on very high volumes... what is brewing here?

Not yet: exploration well was planned in 2024 but postponed to 2025. The 2 TLW blocks (524 and 803) are just the two ones bordering TEN block (west of it), by the border between Ghana and Ivory Coast: https://www.geoexpro.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Map.png and in the same "belt" of two other major billion-barrel worth discoveries (Baleine and Paon). Sounds promising, indeed...

Days like this remind me why I bought this share and I'm still in, in spite of years of shambles and disappointments. Elections in Ghana remind us that most of the issues negatively affecting the SP could be sorted soon: legal issues, delayed payments, political risk overall. What is more, just behind the corner we have exploration activities starting in Ivory Coast. And this could really be a game-changer: https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/tullow-lands-ivory-coast-block-between-baleine-and-jubilee/2-1-1373625

A major discovery in Ivory Coast would bring this share back to the three-digits in just a few minutes. A business-friendly political environment in Ghana could take it back to 40s or 60s, in the meantime.

That's why I'm still here: the potential reward is worth a long wait.

Love the noise of shorts getting smashed.

And there it is: your comment was the right one, though in a different way. They knew it was coming, they pumped it up (with just low volumes as scammers and manipulators literally do what they want with such a low capitalization) and when they caught some hopeful fish into the net, they shorted it to death. As LTH, nothing changes for us: we're just back to where we were two days ago. Rahul out is a good news: it means the main stakeholders are fed-up with this "survival" mode and want a change. Well done.

Which, at the end of the day, is what we have been asking for on this forum in the last two years: spend money on exploration, development, acquisitions.

Hopefully some rumor about the arbitrate decision...

There's a silver lining here: the "50% assumption" arises from the awareness that the first of the two disputes (the one expected by the end of the year) is totally baseless.

-2% with ridiculous volumes in spite of the news about 3.47 % takeover by Capital Ltd.

There's only one way to destroy shorters and support the SP: exploration. For the last couple of years TLW has not drilled exploration wells after the dusters in Suriname. Sarafina was actually the first exploration well in more than one year, an appraisal well, hence no huge expectations but to increase P1 reserves on Simba licence. And yet, even a small discovery would make a difference in the current SP scenario.

Just to make an example, a significant discovery in Ivory Coast in 2025 is actually in the cards: the licence is very close to the latest discoveries made by Eni, and some optimism is therefore justified. In case of a significant discovery, the SP could easily skyrocket back to the 3-digits, and take-over opportunities would flourish accordingly.

No exploration? No party. No opportunities for a break-out of the SP, and a free ride for scammers and manipulators to destroy the SP with the usual technique of "death by one thousand cuts". As they started doing today. No exploration means no risks for shorters: just an easy game, as it has been for the last 2 years. Hope the Board finally realizes that "harvesting mode" does not work. It may work for bankers and predatory lenders, not for the shareholders.

Start spending some money on exploration, as this company used to do when it was worth 100 times the current capitalization, for heaven's sake!!!

Yes, there are actually very good reasons for that: no one is willing to work in Ghana, one of the most untrustworthy and business-unfriendly country in the world. Major oil companies escaped or are desperately trying to do that. The only other reason for takeover would be a good exploration portfolio, and there you get Kenya: possibly even more untrustworthy and unfriendly, with the additional complication of Kenya Gov. fascination with the "climate crisis" charade. A significant discovery in Ivory Coast would totally change the scenario, and a takeover would then be definitely in the cards.

A major communication issue with TLW is that presentation of results is provided well ahead of investor presentation. This definitely does not help. There's a lot of questions about the report: how much of the incremental Jubilee lifting has been postponed to January? How much does it account for? What is the status of negotiations with Ghana Gov for recovery of overdue gas payments? Sarafina discovery? What is the preliminary estimate of the OOIP? What is the status of the additional drilling operations?

The replies to these questions could actually turn a dismal report into a quite positive one. We will have to wait for some more 3-4 weeks to get a clearer picture. Increasing positions at this SP level could be a sensible approach considering that today all the worst possible interpretations of the report are apparently discounted in the SP. And this explains why there are so many buyers at this key support level.

As the shorters keep increasing their gains at the expense of desperate long-term holders, just a few considerations:

- No big surprises in this update: cash flow guidance was missed only due to overdue gas payments.

- Obviously oil price didn't help. It will help even less in the last quarter considering the current trend and commercial wars brewing

- Too many eggs in the same basket: the large majority of oil production comes from the same country. This exposes the cpy to unfair practices (read: blackmailing) from Ghana Gov: yesterday a tax dispute, today overdue payments, and tomorrow? A very poor portfolio management led to this situation, and the BoD is responsible for that

- Sarafina was a discovery, good news. But raising "commerciality" issues for an ILX well does not definitely sound good. Only hope here is that such a cautious approach is due to the ongoing additional exploration well drilling operations by Perenco

- Debt reduction is too slow for a company in a "cash harvesting mode", just to cite RD unfortunate words. We are not harvesting much, capitalization is ridiculous and the debt is still 1.4 billion. And this is probably the picture better representing the total failure of the CEO

- All in all, no good news, no big surprises either. But the biggest damage to the cpy and the shareholders was inflicted long ago, when the current BoD started acting as liquidators in the interest of the lenders rather than as protectors of shareholders' interests. Starting with that disastrous hedging strategy just when OP were skyrocketing . Now we are sleeping in the bed RD and friends made for ourselves.

I'm actually craving for updates about the exploration campaign in Gabon. Even though honestly I do not have big expectations in this regard as the operator is Perenco and it would be somewhat unusual to have info about an exploration campaign provided by a non-operating company. The only other price mover would be an update about the outcome of the tax dispute(s) in Ghana. Due within the end of November... so... very close.

SP up in the absence of any macro catalyst (OP, interest rates, geopolitical issues...) And with low volumes. Puzzling actually. Hopefully someone knows something and accordingly short positions are being closed or longs being added... We will know soon.

Actually Anton there is enough time up to the 28th of November to provide a complete picture over the drilling campaign on Simba, including the outcomes from both the ex wells. Let me be optimistic on this, once in a while, maybe something is brewing here...

It goes without saying that a game-changer is needed here in order to turn the tide. Apart for the Ghana dispute, we need to loon at exploration activities. Ivory Coast is actually very promising due to its proximity to Eni giant discovery and Ghana assets, but no visibility has been provided so far on a possible spud in date apart for generic referendes to y 2025. Gabon is actually still in the cards: if on the one hand no news was provided about Sarafina well, on the other hand the same drilling rig has moved to another location on the same Simba block for an additional well. This is actually in line with what RD announced just 3 months ago: there's two exploration wells and it would be sensible waiting for the second well completion before making an announcement. Fingers crossed https://aecweek.com/tullow-oil-ceo-to-outline-infill-drilling-near-field-exploration-plans-at-aew-2024/