Member Info for Flavius

Easy to guess that Jeffries might be *inadvertently* playing in the hands of entities interested in buying this company for peanuts.

My personal view is that as OP keeps well over 80$ and debt is accordingly reduces, financial position of TLW will improve significantly. To the point that parties interested in taking it over will start get nervous and put an offer on the table fearing the SP could go up too much, too quickly. So far they managed to keep the SP low due to manipulation with small volumes. But time is running out, they know it. Party is over for them. And starting for us.

Kenya Is not a market mover for TLW. No one genuinely expects any news about it, apart for an overall agreement (read takeover) potentially involving Kenyan assets. TLW simply does not have the money necessary to execute the Project and will never have that money due to the pile of debt already accumulated so far. The argument that "gents, this could be profitable!" Is void: whatever might be profitable for a billioner, is simply not affordable for Average Joe, and there we are: Average Joes with empty pockets and a huge mortgage incurred to finance poor and unprofitable investments of the past. Kenya is a nothingburger. Had better talk about an interesting OP trend and a debt burden which is becoming increasingly manageable. UK political mess is affecting the SP these days. It will pass, better times will come. Patience will pay off.

Added up some more 15,000 shares this morning, as anticipated.

I'm gonna buy a few shares more. This SP is ridiculous. Don't wanna regret for not having piled up shares at this price levels.

Anton I actually do not know, like all of us here. But I would be more than. happy if this was really the case :) One thing is for sure: I'm still in, I've been in for a long time, and I will keep my shares for as long as it takes, waiting for a breakthrough of the SP that in a way or in another will have to happen as the financial conditions get easier over time.

Anton it's not about questioning the viability of the Project. There is for sure some value there, but invesment costs are huge, and for sure TLW does not have the resources to develop this project without the support of strong partners. I honestly wonder how this project can be sanctioned in the absence of partners. Who's paying for it? Where is the money? There's no money, just a pile of debt to hopefully reduce thanks to OP and improvements on the hedging side. We need a "surprise", be it a partnership, a take-over or even the relinquishment of the licence at reasonable economic terms. Just speculating in any case. For the moment, interest rates and OP are the drivers, apart for "surprises" that might obviously be behind the corner.

In Italy we have a say "you cannot make a wedding dinner by serving dried figs". Otherwise said: if you have no money, you cannot do much. Even provided Kenya FDP gets a green light, where is the money to make the project viable? The answer is simple: there is no money. Dhir (righteously) said that the main focus is on debt reduction, hence forget about piling up new debt for a project which would see the light in several years from now. The only chance to make Kenya viable is a partnership with a major, or a take-over of TLW by a bigger fish having shoulders large enough as to put the money on the table of the President of Kenya. I would honestly look elsewhere for a positive catalyst to the SP.

in days like this you honestly wonder if there is any sense in investing in the rigged gambling den which the lse has turned into. tlw has no interest in the ns, and nonetheless it was destroyed with the justification of the labour manifesto with the usually low volumes and in the usual "death by one thousand cuts" style: with additional small selling positions being continuously added in order to achieve the maximum possible damage to the sp.

due to the low volumes and zero appeal to foreign investors, lse has become a hunting territory for ridiculously cheap takeovers (see what is happening with john wood). they don't miss a chance to depress the sp of companies which tomorrow would possibly be taken over for peanuts "because... the offer is 50% more than the sp!" this is the game they're playing with tlw and this is the only reason why, in spite of this clownish ****eshow, we had better stay here and wait for the moment where tlw is taken over by a bigger fish.

"If European bank do not finance investments in oil & gas projects..." then Chinese banks will do that. PS: rasing money through equities is obviously out of the equation for TLW, but a major oil company would have no such issue. The easiest way out of this mess is that TLW sells its stakes to a major with a proper discount of course. But the majors (Total) were already there, and left... I honestly have no any expectation from Kenya, zero. Only positive outcome I can see here is that TLW is taken over by a "bigger fish" which has a deal in place with Kenya for development of such field.

Every time an OPEC-meeting is held, Wall Street sells oil thereafter. It's an electoral year, and the US administration has only two priorities up to November: jail Trump and depress the oil price. They're working on both issues with usual efficiency. Regarding TLW, it's always the same story: behaving like a meme-stock and hitting the 40p resistance ahead of release of "key data" which ultimately and regularly depress the oil price. I'll always maintain my view that traders have always a good point in selling this stuff in the 40p area, but investors need to hold on as any day could be a good day for the breaking news that sends TLW skyrocketing. And I don't wanna be out of this game when that day comes.

Enquest not "request ", damn' auto-correct

I have honestly no clue why it popped up yesterday. Guess it's not about TLW as Request yesterday closed almost 9% up. Maybe expectations about a drop in the interest rates? Expiry of options on the last Friday of the month? Only time will tell. And in any case, I'll keep holding up to at least 60p, and possibly a triple digit.

I'm not making any reference to the SP here, but to the overall quality of the comments on this forum. 90% of the posts are a total waste of time, when I come here having a look I spend most of my time screening between rubbish and the few comments worth to be read. There's no point in replying to trolls, this is just playing their game. Everybody knows who the trolls are here: let them talk, let them mock, but do not reply and they won't get satisfaction. They will disappear accordingly and pest other people elsewhere.

Look at TLW chart: it's self telling. Selling action starting at 39p level is a self-fulfilling prophecy. The floating stock is miserable here, and accordingly unless a strong catalyst pops-up, that resistance is almost impossible to break. It goes without saying that as TLW is actually no longer engaged in exploration activities, no surprise can come from there, unfortunately. What else? Kenya? Good luck. Litigations settlements? Hardly making big difference as the market knows Ghana claims are a ridiculous nothingburger. A big OP increase? Almost impossible as the White House will be pouring millions of barrels for strategic reserves from now on in order to lower the gasoline price up to the elections in November. We are left with only one catalyst here: a big drop in the interest rates. Unfortunately, the data are telling a quite different story.

Look at the horrible CPI data from the UK released a few hours ago. And the explosion of the interest rates on the GILTS accordingly. And the SP drop for TLW. It is quite telling. It's not about Kenya, not about production, not about litigations, it's just about algos. Algos hit all the highly-indebted companies whenever bad data pop-up on inflation and interest rates. And considering the miserable volumes of TLW the price drop is accordingly catastrophic.

Same average, same exit price: no less than 60 in any case.

LSE behaves like an undeveloped country SE: when an important data is released in Wall Street the SP swings are ridiculously huge due to the pathetic volumes. What is more, the Wood Group takeover farce did not help with the closure.

For a good breakout of 39-40 area we need also good news from the interest rate side. A good CPI miss today in one hour's time would be really helpful.

I learned the bitter lesson at my expenses, several time. The last one? John Wood: bad fundamentals, wrong business decisions (going after the green hype and leaving aside the most lucrative conventional oil and gas), debt position getting increasingly worse. I hated that share, I sold it and few weeks later a takeover proposal worth +60% of the SP. Can't see why this should not happen with TLW which is in a much better position for an acquisition than WG.