Member Info for Flavius

There's a silver lining though: it cannot lose more than 20p from here.

Let's be honest. This share is just a disgrace. Treading water in the low 20s whatever the scenario: geopolitics, OP, US elections, interest rates: it's all irrelevant. Whatever happens it just stays there, languishing at a ridiculous 300 MGBP of capitalization, worth less than peanuts. Of course there are many reasons for this: an apathetic CEO, zero oil discoveries (can just assume Sarafina was the umpteenth duster in an already-rich collection of exploration failures) and the burden of litigations worth hundreds of millions nobody knows when are going to be settled down. In the meantime what a lot of investing opportunities have we missed in the last... 4 years? However depressing, that's what it is. I have chosen a wrong horse, I just hate it, but I keep betting on it. Behaviour of long-term holders like me is probably an issue of psychiatrist interest, as no rational explanation can justify such an obsession for this share. Tomorrow is another day (another treading-water day), shame on me.

In 10 days they will vote in the US. Let them play with the OP up to the last minute. With Kamala literally sinking in the polls, shorting oil is one of the last life buoys they have left. In 10 days it will be another story.

...But up 100% still from the current SP...

There's really very little information online about such drilling campaign. I usually google-search "AXIMA" (name of the drilling rig), "Dixstone" (owner of the rig), "Sarafina" and the like... By tracking the movements of AXIMA we get some interesting info. It actually started drilling on the 6th of August, also as per RD' statement. And apparently left the drilling site a few days ago... Nothing more than this unfortunately... Looks like a very "secretive" operation :)

Apparently yesterday the drilling rig AXIMA completed the activities for Sarafina well. About 2-month activities in total, which is significantly longer than other drilling campaigns in the same area as far as I know. Soon we should receive an update about the outcome, finger crossed...

Yes and..not. In my view this OP movement sounds like a message to all the paper-tigers shorting oil certificates with the support of complacent media. Oil remains a commodity and as such it is subject to demand-offer fluctuations, not only to politically-motivated announcements on the media about non-existing oversupplied or ridiculous strategies dictated by supposedly OPEC insiders. A war in middle east will always be on the cards from now on. Even after a "smaller than expected" attack by Israel. Hard times coming for the shorters, hopefully, and this applies very well to TLW itself, as the latest movements sound just like short covering rush.

This "mess" will be able to repay the whole debt in 2-3 years even if it totally stops CAPEX expenditures. And then just cash the remaining revenues. A very nice business now the debt risk is zero. And a very cheap business for the current SP.

Geopolitical events are totally irrelevant o the SP unless Israel decides to shell Iranian refineries (highly unlikely). The democrat administration in the US needs a low oil price for their electoral campaign. And, though for different reasons, China, Iran and the Saudis are supporting Kamala as they don't want a Trump admnistration. Accordingly they're doing nothing to challenge the current ridiculous narrative about oil oversupply and lack of demand. Only after November we will see a repricing of oil, when such electoral drivers are no longer in place.

Apparently it's not yet enough for Jeffries: TP lowered to 20p. Every other week they're gonna lower it, possibly down to zero. Then a black knight will pop-up and buy this unfortunate company for peanuts. Where the black knight might very well be the BoD itself through a de-listing. The price action is so relentless and unreasonable that only such a scenario explains what is happening here. Retail owners will be the cannon fodder they need to make their huge gains.

Today's news is BofA rated TLW as a "buy" with TP at 50p. For what jt's worth...

If they cut: "Wow! it means there is oversupply!" If they don't cut: "Wow! They're laying the ground for future oversupply!" Whatever they do, for Kamala's rescue team oil will be always short.

Donr think he would be allowed to top up at the final stage of drilling an exploration well ...

Previous exploration well in Gabon by Perenco took about 30 days. We should hear some news any moment from now, then. Strangely enough there was no formal announcement about spud-in, nor information about the progress of drilling activities. It definitely feels like the Operator is not willing to create too much of expectations about this ILX well. In the absence of news in the next one week I'd assume accordingly that it is a duster.

Apparently the drilling rig arrived on the 6th of August. No idea how long it is expected to take for reaching the target but we should be close... Definitely need some good news here...

He's awake. And happy. Otherwise he would have announced a buyback plan to support the SP, and long ago. Considering the ridiculous volumes behind this SP free fall, even a few million GBP buy back plan would have been sufficient to stop this manipulation. Hence, he's happy as it is, and the rest of the BoD with him.

3 million pieces exchanged, at this SP level we are talking about 700,000 GBP. Peanuts, literally. The whole day minuscule selling positions have been added relentlessly, total manipulation visible to anybody, and with no one, literally no one saying a single word about it. Apparently the BoD is very happy about it. Sometimes I wonder if this price manipulation is promoted by the BoD itself, with the purpose of delisting the company for peanuts, when the day comes. Considering TLW is worth about 350 million vs 1.6 billion debt, I honestly wonder why this price manipulation should not go on until the SP is in the single digit range. Why not? 700,000 GBP per day is definitely worth the effort. 100,000 or 300,000 GBP capitalization makes not a big difference considering the amount of debt left to be paid. They can literally do whatever they want and short it down to 0,1 GBP because the complacent silence of the BoD is quite telling: they are happy with this price manipulation, they won't move a finger to stop it. A delisting would be a very profitable outcome for them, once the SP is brought down to zero. Scary perspective for little insignificant retailer owners like me.

It's all BS. The only driver here is getting lower gasoline price at the pump in the US to help the disastrous electoral campaign of the democrats. All the rest is just media narrative fabricated to this purpose.

Excellent article indeed, thanks! Long term dynamics are very clear, and are bullish for the OP. Short term wise, it's only about politics, read US elections. After November it will be a different story.

Because no one will make a phone call to warn you that it is going to skyrocket, the day before it actually does. I wanna be ready by that time, there's no sense in chasing the minimum when the current SP is plain ridiculous as it is.