Member Info for Flavius

Assets are definitely not lower than liabilities, the value of 2P reserves alone is about 2 billion GBP, which considering the current debt would be equivalent to a SP above 40p. As I've been repeating for the last two years, we're paying the price for horrendous exploration performance under RD direction as a merely decent oil discovery would boost the SP (BTW, still waiting for the update about commerciality of latest "discovery" claimed by RD in Gabon, and swiftly disappeared in the last update).

tlw market cap is now 250 m, which means this share is now virtually worthless, and by far less worth than its own assets. whatever the many reasons behind, price action has definitely been overstretched considering the good news from the ghana dispute and the fact that op is keeping at decent levels. on the other hand this ridiculous market cap further complicates refinancing of the debt (debt-to-cap ratio is almost 600%, crazy) and paves the way for an extra-cheap acquisition. what is more, it facilitates the scammers' job as they keep pushing the sp further down by selling ridiculous amount of shares.

how long more can this ****eshow go on? feeling is we're really close to a breaking point and something will have to happen in a way or in another.

I read with a smile on my face some posts jubilating because after the update the SP loss was "only 2% rather than the usual 10%". It was actually 12% including the day before and the day after.

As a LTH I can only blame myself for being where I am now, but nobody can honestly be surprised for today's SP action as 99% of trading is managed by machines and as a target price is lowered, machines are educated to sell. You just get what you get because the SP is so ridiculous that if there is even a small reason to sell, it will be oversold, with the usually low volumes and breaking the last available supports.

Talking about supports, there is nothing below this SP level, apart for the 6-7 p. As anticipated I will keep a last chip to lower my average in case we hit that support, and that's it. I will keep my shares in the (desperate) hope that some miracle happens: a new CEO with some vision rather than a bankruptcy trustee as RD, or a miraculous bump in the oil price despite the relentless efforts by WS to short it on a daily basis, or a discovery in Ivory Coast (unless we dispose of this asset which is the only valuable exploration play we are left with).

Sorry to be here, but it's just my fault, no one else to blame.

90% of the update is about debt management. The rest about "optimizations" and even "disposals" (is there anything left to dispose of??). 150mm FCF with oil at 80$ doesn't bode well considering WS commitment to lower the OP as per new boss requirements.

Reference to "growth through inorganic opportunities with a new CEO" sounds like a total disqualification of the leaving CEO, something like "it was a total disaster, we don't know where we're heading but it cannot be any worse, possibly".

Nothing else to see here. This share is an interesting business only for bond holders. Shareholders are asked to give blood and pray for an OP spike (that would be capped by the new hedges by the way).

I don't expect anything but bad news. And I don't expect anything but the umpteenth SP drop after tomorrow's update. I've kept a few pounds to buy a last chunk of shares in case the SP hits 10 or 7p. This company does not deserve any trust from any investor and it's possibly one of the worst places where to be in the stock market. LTH holders are bound to stay here only out of despair, that's all.

I said some time ago that we needed planets to get aligned to help the SP invert the trend: OP, production, Interest Rates. Well, unfortunately it was not the case. Only bad news from every possible angle (apart for the dispute resolution which was honestly in the cards as it was clearly a frivolous case).

My big concern now is that WS has a new boss, and they're clearly working to make him happy as the OP is tanking after the new boss' demands. There's some rational behind this bet, as Trump may play several cards with the Saudis to get them increase production and lower the OP accordingly. And in fact Saudis were quite silent after Trump's yelling about the need to lower the OP: a telling silence, worrisome.

I don't honestly think that this company clearly in shambles from an organizational point of view, with a falling production and a pile of debt can afford an umpteenth oil price crisis. And not only for the impact on the free cash flow, but also (or even more) for the effects that such a crisis would have onto bad-payers like Ghana which are not even honoring their commitments in a decent OP scenario.

For the first time in the last few years I'm really worried and I'm thinking of leaving the ship. Cannot afford such a bleeding for such a long time, in such an uncertain environment.

Unfortunately the big unknown is the OP with WS relentlessly shorting it. From this point of view nothing has changed with the new US administration.

I don't know if oil is actually heading higher. I only know that it has never been cheaper. Considering the inflation piled up in the last 4 year only, OP should be higher than 100$. The reason why the price is so low is the overproduction after war in Ukraine; prices spiked up in the triple digits and accordingly the "drill baby drill" was more than a slogan, it was just about collecting profits.

With these ridiculously low oil price and ridiculously high costs no one finds it convenient to drill. Prices will spike up accordingly in the future as undersupply emerges (like it or not, Mr. President).

But the real point here is: how long can reasonably TLW survive a low OP environment with plummeting production, zero oil discoveries, zero exploration, unfriendly business environment and a CEO hiding somewhere after 4 years of disasters now materializing in front of everybody?

The latest statement in November read: "Jubilee oil production averaged c.89 kbopd (c.34.5 kbopd net) to end-October, below expectations primarily due to underperformance of the J69-P well as flagged previously, unplanned downtime at the GNGC onshore gas processing plant and periods of reduced water injection due to power outages"

Several justifications provided for the production decrease, but the underperformance of J69 is probably key to this downward trend, obviously steeper than the original expectations. This is impacting the cashflow accordingly. The infilling campaign will be key to revert the trend. Walking on thin ice, we're getting used to this, unfortunately.

The infilling campaign is starting in May, with two additional wells being drilled in 120 days (https://www.offshore-energy.biz/noble-drillship-gets-multi-well-drilling-job-in-africa/) and 4 more wells in 2026.

Any reason why? Something brewing?

There's planned maintenance activities ongoing since November (https://nortrans.com/news-post/new-contract-awarded-arendal-spirit-to-support-tullow-ghanas-fpso-maintenance-campaign/) maybe that explains?

RD has been committed only to protect the interests of the creditors, hence his communication style was calm, reassuring: he just wanted to pass the message that TLW was able to repay its debt and was viable overall as an ongoing concern. But that could be OK 3 years ago, when we were recovering from the COVID disaster.

Unfortunately it was not only about communications management though: how many exploration licenses were relinquished? How many exploration wells were postponed? There were plans for drilling the first exploration well in Ivory Coast in 2024, in a very promising, potentially game-changing prospect for TLW. We're in 2025 and still no visibility about a drilling campaign starting there. Let alone the recent discovery in Gabon: we're still waiting for a hint about its commercial viability, anybody there?!!

RD was too conservative: both in terms of business strategy (including the catastrophic management of hedges ahead of the Ukraine crisis) and in terms of communications management. That approach is no longer suitable, nor was it already two years ago actually. Looking forward for a change, the sooner the better.

Thanks Anton, they can just delist from the LSE then. For sure Ghana economy is more promising (and their government more credible).

"Stellar" volumes today: 500k GBP equivalent. And accordingly, it goes without saying, scammers got the upper hand. I honestly wonder why the BoD does not delist this stock from the LSE (the most shorted "developed" market in the world due to the ridiculous interest rates of GILTS and pathetic agenda of the current Government) and moves to Ghana Stock Exchange. I guess volumes would definitely be higher than at the LSE (and overall transparency as well).

300,000 GBP equivalent traded this morning so far: this is the real joke allowing scammers to depress the SP (or just cap it as it is happening today).

Probably the only oil company in the world in the red today. 500,000 GBP volume in 7 hours: you can literally do anything you want with these volumes. The point is, the BoD is doing nothing to prevent these scammers from making their gains. No announcements, no PR, no news about the new CEO, no updates about the discovery in Gabon. Sometimes I wonder if those scammers hide in the BoD itself.

Scammers and manipulators are back running the show after just two weeks' break. Of course the outcome of the arbitrate is totally irrelevant to them (as is the OP) as the usually ridiculous volumes (and likewise ridiculous capitalization) allow them to move the SP wherever they like. From this standpoint, 2025 begins just like 2024 ended.

The usual scammers and manipulators that have devastated the SP for the last 6 months just did their best trick on Friday afternoon when they destroyed the SP breaking the last level of support before the cliff: there is virtually no support between these levels and 15p / 10p: the SP levels when this company was deemed totally broke. With low volumes ahead of Christmas break they're just flooding the market with more shorts finding no buyers and destroying further the SP. Nobody is preventing them from doing it, neither the board nor the "regulators" of the Clown World that the LSE has become.

PGee, definitely so. The short and laughable soap novel with Kosmos passed the message that the lower the SP the more opportunistic the takeover. Jefferies and-the-likes are just paving the way for even more ridiculous "offers" by "white knights" currently hiding in the dark behind the senseless target prices set by their subservient accomplices. Add that nobody is willing to spend their Christmas holidays bracing for an arbitrate sentence (umpteenth communication disaster by RD & co. anticipating a much earlier conclusion of this drama) and then you get what you get. Nothing changes to me honestly: I will keep my shares here until they hit the 60p range: my Christmas is saved in any case.