Member Info for Flavius

- The deal is not bad. 2P reserves were valued about 10 USD per barrel. This is a market price, not end-of-season sales.

- There is quite some logic behind: this cash injection will make it possible to proceed with exploration drilling in Ivory Coast (very promising) and infilling/ILX drilling in Ghana without issuing further debt

- This cash will make it easier to re-finance the 2026 note and it could actually have been "warmly sponsored" by debt-holders.

- The SP has of course been easily brought back to where it was. Volumes are still miserable, even with breaking news like this RNS, and this makes it really easy for shorters to protect their short positions by just opening some more small short positions on the LSE.

- Shorters, scammers and manipulators will be swept away only if and when new oil discoveries are made. And this cash injection goes definitely in that direction.

In June the 6-month period as per Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code will be expired. As of today, TLW SP is just about half of where it was in December, when Kosmos approached TLW for a takeover proposal. In the meantime the tax dispute with Ghana has been resolved, and the 2025 note repaid. Otherwise told, today TLW is extremely cheap compared to where it was just 4 months ago.

With these premises I wouldn't rule out a coming-back from Kosmos with a new offer (and probably the market does not rule that out either, considering KOS SP never recovered from the drop occurred during the takeover talks). Kosmos or anybody else, TLW is extremely attractive at this SP level, and this is the reason why a LTH had better stay here rather than throwing in the towel and run away, IMVHO.

Anton I have often been in disagreement with you over Kenya but honestly I take your point and agree with you that after the political change in the US the green political agenda is being disposed of at worldwide level. This means that oil and gas projects will be financed more easily than before, and US-satellite countries like Kenya are in a totally different position regarding development or oil and gas resources.

The most realistic case in my opinion is that a JV partner will be identified for developing an updated version of the FDP which makes the project more viable overall. Let's wait and see.

Sucker rally as you say: yesterday someone covered some shorts and the day after algos re-set the SP into the descending channel that they have been tracking for the last one year. Unless something major happens, algos will keep doing their job as usual. The higher the spike, the bigger their effort to dump the SP the day after (not a big effort by the way, considering the usual ridiculous volumes).

Https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-tullow-oil-plcs-lon-083447715.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALmZXeJl8ZrbiI6mIMt7YQv5nRl4UgSok_4ozkIXGEbBcsUabbGDvYZ64uL-RCpI9MWL5Zfwi5N2mTy_TJB8TXUuV_ZYJWsANfECACwi-7mB7ugeTAmKpk4eV5dEJ2Zi5AEMXKyoBwmYHV36sijlltToBTF02KRMMsuezyR7Yemu

Tullow cannot be "kicked out" of the project unless Kenyan government is able to prove that it could not develop the project due to TLW gross negligence or the like. An arbitrate would follow suit and the project would be blocked indefinitely as potential new partners would not even touch it with a stick.

So either Kenya liquidates TLW or it finds some new partners with deep enough pockets to develop the project. Either way I cannot see bad news here. The idea of a small scale refinery is a good one, especially considering the waxy oil which would make it extremely complicated to export it via a pipeline.

I have no clue whether the last SP pop up has anything to do with Kenya. We can just wait and see.

Https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/opinion-analysis/columnists/rethink-commercial-exploitation-of-turkana-without-tullow-4963858

Small volumes are suspicious in fact. Normally such small volumes are used to drag the price down. This time something different is happening. Maybe someone is covering short positions and the price is spiking up due to lack of sellers. Why would they be closing their shorts? This is another story. Time will tell.

Something is brewing apparently. Price action is rather...unusual...

Value is ... a big word. There is no value if "the market" does not wanna see it. In the meantime the BoD is apparently paralyzed: no CEO appointed, no communication whatsoever. They must be very happy with the SP considering they've been comfortably silent for the last few months.

Retail LTH are much less happy for sure. But there's some kind of silver lining for me: I've lost so much money on this stuff that my position has shrunk to the point that even the algo-managed 1.5% average loss per day is becoming less and less impacting. As anticipated many times, I've kept just a few pounds in case the SP reaches the algo-targeted 7p which would allow me at least to lower my current 26p average. That's the way it is, not much to add.

You're definitely right xxnjr in light of the simply disastrous hedging strategy that capped profits in 2022 and actually paved the way to all the problems we're facing now. At least half a billion USD of FCF were destroyed due to that idiotic hedging strategy, which was meant only to make creditors happy at the expense of stakeholders. Making creditors happy at the expense of shareholders has been the trademark of RD management.

Because hedging at 70$ would have been extremely expensive and associated with a lower cap than the current 89$ (however ridiculous it might sound today, that was a fair assumption just a few months ago, before Trump started the drill-baby-drill narrative). Heding at 59$ is a life-saver rather than an investment.

Wall Street has been shorting oil for the last one year. Whatever the US administration in charge, shorting oil is at the top list of any political agenda. Any justification is valid to the purpose.

But probably the most idiotic one is "because of Ukraine!": as the US is going to relax sanctions on Russian oil, then the OP will collapse! Well this is totally wrong: Russian oil has always found a way to reach the market in the last few years, but at a big discount to market price. As such, sanctions themselves have been acting as a cooling factor on the oil price rather than the opposite: India, China and others have been purchasing Russian oil at a discount thus forcing producers worldwide to lower the bar to avoid losing market share. End of sanctions on Russian oil would be bullish to the OP rather than the opposite.

Regarding Tullow, there's a silver lining: about 60% of forecast sales volumes are hedged at weighted average price of $59/bbl through the year. And this is a good news, considering 59$ is only 9 dollars lower than the current miserable price.

Xxnjr, I don't think a takeover should be based on 2P only. For example, how many 2C reserves can be reassessed as 2P after ILX wells drilling and delivery of 4D seismic survey in Ghana? This could easily double the current 2P estimate and those additiona reserves would be worth... a lot, considering production facilities are already in place.

Exploration acreage can be an important asset as well, especially in Ivory Coast which is very promising considering contiguity with Eni giant discovery and with Jubilee itself.

And then you get Kenya. Which is worthless if owned by a penny-stock debt-burdened company as TLW is today. But could be very interesting to a bigger-sized O&G company with financial capacity to develop it.

Overall the situation is dire, but the company is clearly undervalued, ad as such a takeover is likely IMHO.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that net debt was 1.45 Bn by year-end and about 1.2 Bn after 2025 note repayment. In a take-over you don't buy a production rate but an amount of reserves. There's 265 MM boe as certified 2P and some 700MM 2C, part of which could be certified after the 4D seismic survey in Ghana.

Overall, there's quite some stuff to take-over. And the sole value of 2P reserves is already by far higher than current capitalization (including debt)

Here we are, at the second-last support before the end. The market started to bet on the umpteenth OP crisis long ago, as it was crystal clear that this was one of the worst-positioned oil companies in the world due to the amount of debt, falling FCF and ridiculous management overall. And here we are, with an OP crisis looming, no CEO, 1.5 billion debt expiring in 12 months, production in free-fall and zero communication whatsoever.

The SP reflects a scenario where this company is so cheap and undervalued that is now an easy prey for a takeover. It can be purchased for literally slightly more than the value of its debt. Otherwise said, its value is almost zero. We can talk as much as we want but this is where we are, like it or not.

The only reason why I haven't yet closed my bleeding position is that for this ridiculous SP a takeover is definitely in the cards. Just a couple of billion dollars (or little bit more, as a form of charity for the desperate residual shareholders) and all Ghana reserves, Ivory Coast exploration acreage, Kenya and Gabon would be taken in one fell swoop. Really an easy game.

In order to prevent a ridiculously cheap takeover, the CEO (or the-like) should find a way to refinance the debt, as soon as possible. Otherwise this company will be considered as virtually bust and taken over for the same 7pc which set the last support before...the end.

This company has plenty of reserves and the only problem on the table is the 2026 note refinancing. An healthy O&G company would refinance the debt easily, or even just repay it at expiry using its FCF. This paves the way for a very cheap acquisition. As for WG someone is arguably standing by the river waiting for the SP to definitely collapse and get the best possible bargain. The BoD is doing nothing to prevent this scenario, they are actually collaborating with this senseless communication management.

This share is interesting now only as an opportunistic buy. At this SP level and with a takeover looming there would be some sense in starting accumulating. For the lucky ones who are not under water like the LTH

Anton considering 15p is a key support level there was arguably lots of bids waiting. The seller knew that and acted accordingly. Why did he do it? We will know soon I guess.

We can discuss for ages about the reasons why the SP is dropping. But when you get a selling order of 40,000,000 shares at 17.29 it means quite something. This is plain SP manipulation. My feeling is we are going to discover soon who is pulling the strings here, and why.

My guess is the BoD is complicit in this price destruction scheme. Ages after CEO resignation there is still no successor to RD, communication is...zero in spite of a key financial event (2025 expiry date is...tomorrow!). They're deliberately taking all the worst possible decisions for the shareholders. Don't believe in coincidences. This smells of delisting or super cheap takeover.

Thanks Anton, I understand they are utilizing about 20MMscfd of produced gas for power generation purposes on the FPSO. And this should rule out any impact from the power failures that have affected Ghana in the last year. But this raises other questions though: normally gas-fueled power gen systems are very reliable systems with minimal outage time. As a rather seasoned worker in the O&G industry (including floaters) I'm honestly puzzled with the explanation that water injection is affected by power outages in a self-generation scenario.