Member Info for Flavius

Many references here about TLW anticipating a free cash flow of $400 million in 2025, assuming a $65 per barrel oil price. I would just recall that from January to...nowadays the average OP was probably around 72-72 USD and overall the feeling is that geopolitical tensions and real market tightness is preventing OP from falling any further. This implies overall y2025 results will be probably better than forecast. Waiting for "big things" to be achieved of course (debt refinancing first) there's space for optimism for the second half of the year.

@xxnjr : you popped up here some time ago, apparently looking for a place with higher visibility for your posts. Honestly I do not understand why you're dispensing pills of pessimism, doom and gloom on a daily basis, most of which are unfounded in spite of an undisputable knowledge of the O&G business. Why are you doing that? Are you shorting this share (nothing wrong with it of course)? Do you hate this share? Or have you got an agenda for some reason you are not willing to disclose?

In the meantime the share is back to the "normal" : hostage of scammers and manipulators moving the SP with peanuts, and always to the low. Thus facilitating the cheap takeover that sooner or later will come. TLW BoD is not helping as usual, with a masochistic and grotesque communications strategy inadvertently (?) supporting such speculation.

Considering today's record-low volumes it's hard to believe a takeover is brewing right now :)

It more looks like shorters are still playing their games with extra low volumes as usual. Probably the only oil company closing red today worldwide... And in the meantime KOS +15% in the last two trading days. As usual things are not adding up here.

Unfortunately nothing is heping here. OP is terribly low but this is further amplified by the weakness of the USD. In a few months the USD lost about 20% of its value. This means that this miserable 65$ /bbl is the equivalent of 50-55 USD. Oil is literally for free as of now. All Trump's policies are terrible for the O&G sector: low OP, weak USD and in perspective a massive contraction of economic activity in both EU and Japan due to their currency strengthening and impact over export.

We need some positive catalyst to overcome this ultra-negative period from a macro standpoint. In the absence news about debt refinancing it's difficult to win the downward pressure on the SP, especially considering that parties interested in TO have an easy game in shorting this share to buy cheaper. Tough times.

It won't be baseless but it's a non educated guess in any case. After a shut down on a complex offshore field like this you have to manage issues like gas breakthrough (leading to temporary increase of GOR), water/gas coming, in addition to the production optimizations already planned which take further time to reach the new steady state. For sure a natural depletion is in place but the picture will be clearer only in the next few months.

Speculations about latest production data are baseless as long as we do not know what is actually happening after the shut down. An increase in the GOR for example can be well attributed to a transitory regime until a new steady-state is reinstated. We do not know anything about the other production optimization actions on both TEN and Jubilee, which should have been implemented during the shut down, and about their potential impact on production rates. Moreover additional production is being added with the ongoing drilling campaign. We just need to wait and see what happens in the next three months. And then the additional infilling campaign will start in November. Overall TLW is in much better conditions than 6 months ago, when the failed takeover attempt by KOS sent the SP tanking. We just need some news about debt refinancing. There's many reasons to be optimistic about the future.

Xx the fall in TEN production might be due to the brief shutdown planned to address an issue with the flare tip. Hopefully we'll know better soon.

Xx and all, you're right to highlight that current drilling is not expected yet to endorse the outcomes from the 4D drilling ans this is forecast to happen with the next batch of wells with drilling activities re-starting from next November. On the other hand the discovery of oil from deeper reservoirs was an outcome of the previous drilling campaign in Jubilee SE back in 2023 (https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/14288747/added-wells-lifting-production-from-jubilee-offshore-ghana) so arguably the 4D seismic was aimed also at interpreting those additional layers. I expect the wells being currently drilled could provide more information about that, and support the interpretation of the 4D with a view to the future drilling campaign starting by the end of the year.

In days like this, one is honestly tempted to throw in the towel, close all positions and buy some mega-cap and sleep over it.

But, there's a big BUT. There's a drilling campaign ongoing. It's not the "usual" infilling campaign: they're exploring deeper levels in the Jubilee field as per the outcomes of the 4D seismic campaign delivered in March. This makes the ongoing drilling more of an "exploration" rather than a regular infilling exercise.

Add the incoming (hopefully) refinancing of the debt, and here you are a couple of potential big market movers which could send the SP shooting for the moon, any time soon.

Need to be patient, any day could be the day and I don't wanna miss it out after waiting for so long.

When volumes collapse, shorters have always the upper hand here. OP as usual does not help: since CTA funds started to hold total control on commodities market, OP trading has become a clown show with algo trading turning every movement into a bloodbath (and always in the short direction). As long as no news is provided on the debt issue, things won't change to the better. Not many more market movers for this share as long as the White House is in control of OP market through their personal manipulation tools (CTA funds).

Holding up because the real drivers are elsewhere... read debt refinancing and potential merging/takeover looming. Of course a healthier OP would help but as long as the White House puts cheap gas at the top of their agenda...

4D seismic was completed already three months ago and the incoming drilling campaign is based on those very outcomes. TLW definitely has those results in their hands and for sure are using such data for potential mergers/takeovers. We're blind, but the OP and worsening situation in the ME is working for the SP. In spite of all the effort put by the usual...hands.

30 no thanks... 35 tempting... 40 OK.

As per several reports circulating these days, due to the growing uncertainties around oil supply from Middle East, China is increasingly interested in safer oil-producing regions like West Africa. Plenty of opportunities for takeover offers in the near future...

Stadium this is not actually correct. After the first dump of a few million shares, by 10:00AM the SP was already back to 19p. Then relentlessly in pure TLW style, new additional sell orders were added throughout the whole day. Moreover, if there really was such an insider buying, they would have sold well before the rubbish skynews hit piece. Add the incredibly perfect timing of the "analysis" by the shorting fund and the "announcement" by the unknown "think-tank" , and there you get all the fingerprints of a concerted manipulation. Whether this was done just to serve a lifeline to shorters, or to facilitate an ongoing takeover (still ongoing, not at all "collapsed"), well, only time will tell.

You don't actually need the AI to know that this share is manipulated and there is ground for a criminal investigation. With three rubbish "news" issued in a few hours the equivalent of 60 million GBP capitalization was burnt by exchanging the equivalent worth of 6 million GBP.

Almost 24 after Skynews "rumor", not even one line of an RNS from TLW and this obviously contributed to the SP fall. Not surprising honestly, as the BoD has never showed any interest in supporting the SP in the last few years.

Fully agree Gallery. However counterintuitive, the (presumed) failures with Kosmos and Meren (!) were most probably due to an improvement in TLW financials & accounts. It's a sign of strength rather than weakness. Even in the super-timely rumors about "Meren collapse" they generically talk about negotiations ongoing by the beginning of the month, i.e. before the spike in the OP due to the Iranian crisis. Let's also recall that Kosmos attempt failed after the resolution of the arbitration case with Ghana, which put the company in a stronger position.

Opportunistic buyers are no longer needed at this stage. Anyone interested in a strategic agreement? Good: deep dive into your wallet, this is no longer such a cheap prey.

iea was a totally unknown and irrelevant local "think-tank" until yesterday, when somebody decided to flood the media with a ****estorm of fake negative news to save shorters from underwater.