Member Info for Flavius

It's obviously difficult for the SP to skyrocket in the current OP scenario and in the absence of any news about refinancing the expiring 2026 note. Only silver lining is as we approach the debt expiry deadline there's too little time left to deliberate a recapitalization. Silence is golden, they say. Hope this is the case.

Supercooper a meaningful recapitalisation would be in the amount of about 500M. You need to grant a significant discount to the participants in such increase, and accordingly a SP of about 5 pc. All in all this means issuing 10billion more shares with the SP theoretically falling to about 6p. Not a drama in itself as we've already seen the 8p few days ago.

The real issue here is that very hardly would current shareholders participate in such capital increase by adding 3-times the equivalent value of th shares already owned. Moreover why would a new investor take part in a capital increase with such a negligible theoretical profit on the final SP value? Unless banks decide to put their own money (at which cost?!) such a move would be hardly successful.

A capital increase would have been quite a sensible move when the SP was in the 40-60p range. But unfortunately we got a totally incapable, naive and crafty management at the helm at the time.

Sanctions against Russia are only a pretext as they have virtually no effect (sanctioning Rosneft in the... USA? come on...). The fact is the market is simply coming to senses about the fact that there will be no any supply glut, yet there is not enough oil to satisfy the always increasing demand at worldwide level. Add that China is stockpiling hundreds of billions of barrels as they believe the price is far too low now, and it won't be for long.

The media campaign about "oil supply glut" has only a geopolitical motivation (i.e. stress Russia finances) but it is totally baseless overall. Always talking about production increase in Guyana. Brazil or the US (where production has actually stalled), when all around the world oil production is sinking in big producing countries like Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, Angola (Ghana...), where no significant discoveries have been made for years, and difficult reservoirs deplete quickly in the absence of production enhancement techniques.

We need to hold on now, and wait for a significant bounce in the OP (we're just at the beginning hopefully). Then refinancing, additional drilling and hopefully increase of 2P reserves after OBN exploration. A multi-bagger opportunity is definitely in the cards.

It had also 3 billion GBP debt vs. 1 billion today

My bull thesis is 1) refinancing 2) OP back to 80s in 1-year time 3) additional production from new wells 4) additional 2P reserves after exploration and drilling campaign.

- I've added more 12,500 shares. If it goes bust I won't even see this minuscule loss. Otherwise, it's gonna be a multi-bagger.

You should be aware that zero cannot be diluted. The dilution argument was used recently only to help destroying the SP as it is totally stupid and unsustainable from a financial standpoint. When a SP you need an infinite number of shares to significantly dilute anything. Just plain BS

We've got used to the fact that whenever Jefferies comes out with a new target (down, of course), there the SP goes. Just a coincidence, for sure.

For the rest, nothing to say apart for the fact that when the value of a company is zero, well... zero-comma-something does not make any much difference. What's the difference between a SP of 1pc and 8 pc? Just about 150 MGPB: nothing. Difference is big for shareholders though. Rating agencies do their dirty job, helping vultures scavenging carcasses: this is what Jefferies is doing. Vultures are there, ready to buy this stuff for a "premium" of 100% at ...10p? Probably this was their game since day one.

Whatever, the BoD played wonderully in their hands for some reason. But I cannot rule out that refinancing is really down the corner, and someone is willing to buy extra-cheap to maximise their profits. We'll see, soon, as May is literally after tomorrow

All in all, cannot blame Jefferies for doing its dirty job: jackals scavenge on carcasses. And no doubt TLW is a carcass, with a capitalization that is worth a couple of months' revenues and a BoD that have been twirling their thumbs for years as the expiry date of 2026 note was getting closer and closer. And which today, a few months' away from that expiry, incredibly keep talking about "good progress" and, even worse, "range of options". One wonders what those options might be, in front of an OP being hammered on a daily basis for geopolitical reasons (any reference to gold price suppression in the last few years is purely coincidental), rating agencies blowing on the fire and production issues still left to be addressed.

Once in a while I agree with xxnr: the problem is timing. Already back in 2020 when the overall scenario was not yet so shaky (still plenty of assets to dispose of), a childlish and reckless management destroyed hundreds of millions of value with a suicidal hedging strategy just ahead of OP jumping in the 3-digits. My concern is that refinancing deby under this scenario would easily lead to a similar outcome, with crippling terms just ahead (read hedging) just ahead of a spike in the OP. Spike that is due to come, and not in a far future as we're coming from 10-year underinvestment in the sector, and demand keeps rising at worldwide level, especially for distillates (read: diesel) and natural gas.

I've alwayw known mine was a sort of a gamble. And here I am, waiting to see if I'm gonna lose all or come out with a multibagger in one year's time or so. Time will tell, and here we remain, waiting for good news that apparently never comes.

Fog there's evidence everywhere. Even if you only want to look at US storage data (starting with Cushing) they've been below the average for the whole last year, whatever the season. Look at the US shale production, you'll discover it stopped growing up. China and India are importing oil in huge quantities as well. Even European gas storage levels are below the average for the season. There's no any physical indicator showing an oversupply, yet it's just a media narrative started back in 2022 with the Ukrainian conflict. OPEC countries are not stupid, they're not fighting any price war, they're just increasing their market share profiting from a very healthy demand, and the troubles faced by US shale production.

In a few months reality will pop-up all of a sudden. Possibly (hopefully) and not coincidentally together with a settlement in Ukraine.

One of the most typical TLW moves has repeated just between yesterday and today: when there's a massive sell-off due to OP falling down the cliff (curiously happening whenever for geopolitical reasons a US administration wants to hit Russia where it hurts most), the day the OP falls TLW remains fairly stable, then the following day when there is a rebound in the OP it is sold like hell and pulverized. This pattern has repeated so many times that I've often tried to figure out the reasons behind it.

I think this could be due to the extremely low volumes of this penny stock (like it or not, that's what it is in therms of capitalization). The day the OP falls there's so little bid that it is impossible to close significant positions without a gigantic loss, accordingly the volumes remain extremely small and the SP kinda hold. When the OP rebounds and bid comes back on the oil and gas sector, then sellers start to flood the market as they find hopeful bid to buy the shares they sell, but in the end the SP crashes as buyers escape after realizing they've been fooled (once more).

Whatever the games behind this unfortunate share, to me nothing actually changes. I'm going to add a few more on the 10p support level as I've been already doing so far. OP short speculation is just a geopolitical game n the tug-of-war between the US administration and Russia around the Ukraine war. This game cannot last for much more as oil demand does not show any sign of weakness, and offer is already stretched with almost zero spare capacity even on paper. This game is ending in the 3-digit for the OP, not in a far future. I wanna be ready by that time.

Up with higher-than-usual volumes... Something brewing up here?

250,000.

But I've closed some positions many months ago with a significant loss. So my "virtual" average is obviously higher, around 25p

Just bought more 10,000, now my average is 17.7

We need higher OP to get a better picture overall, in addition to debt refinancing of course.

And higher OP will definitely come in the future. Look at the fundamentals: in spite of continuous (claimed) production increases by OPEC countries, storages worldwide are still at their lowest historical levels. The truth is that besides all the doom & gloom narrative spread by the media, oil demand keeps increasing as developing countries improve their economies and their citizens' wellbeing (the opposite of what is happening in Europe, I guess).

When OPEC have played all their cards and no spare capacity is left, an obvious truth will emerge: there is undersupply of oil at worldwide level due to underinvestment in the O&G sector in spite of the fact that there's half of the world asking for more energy and better living standards. That half of the world never finds space in the narrative of our fantastic and super-truthful media, but it exists. And this is the reason why physical demand/supply dynamics will prevail in the end over current OP manipulation.

NPV10 in a terrible OP scenario and without the 18 additional million boe coming from licence extension is 1,5b which is equivalent to about 25p SP. Considering the additional 18mm boe and in a just more decent OP scenario (es: 75$) it would be easily 2b GBP, equivalent to about 50p SP. In a scenario where exploration leads to material reserve increase, SP would obviously be higher.

This is the most interesting part: "With the new 4D seismic data acquired in 1Q 2025 and an Ocean Bottom Node (OBN) survey planned for 4Q 2025, Tullow expects to mature new projects and increase 2P reserves in Ghana. This is further supported by ongoing work with the Government of Ghana in relation to a Plan of Further Development for Jubilee, which covers the licence extensions and further drilling opportunities"

"New Projects" means the outcomes from the 4D seismic and the incoming OBN are expected to support a drilling exploration campaign to identify additional reserves within the blocks. This would obviously be a game changer for the company. And the shareholders...

Why 19 when just 3 months ago, all things unchanged (or rather, worse than now) the SP was 21p?

- 25 after refinancing

- 40 with additional wells and confirmation that operational issues have been addressed

SP cannot be affected much with these ridiculous volumes (2MM shares exchanged today so far...).

On the other hand, balance sheet is further strengthened and accordingly the way is paved for debt refinancing at better conditions.

-1.9% of shorts in the last two weeks is quite telling. Possibly these are the last opportunities to jump on the train before it leaves these SP levels.

Anton, fully agree with you. Current OP is discounting every possible bad news: oversupply, lack of geopolitical risks, recession, increasing production of non-OPEC countries, and even more the political pressure from the US administration on OPEC to release all their spare capacity to the market. And in spite of all this, OP is still 67$, not 35$.

Many of the above assumptions, though, are flawed: non-OPEC production is going nowhere as US shale production has already stalled, most of OPEC (presumed) overcapacity is already gone with the last production increases (on paper), recession is no way near to come in the US (European economies are... another story but luckily we are "green" and our impact on the world market is decreasing together with our GDPs). Expenditures in exploring and developing new oil&gas fields are too small to replace the production lost over time. Everything is pointing to a new spike in the oil price in the future. TLW SP will have to reflect this, in a way or in another.

Anton, simply ignore him and do not bother. There's nothing here requiring intervention by attorneys, lawyers or police whatsoever even though it actually looks like Thought Police is very active down there prosecuting desperate housewives or teenagers for thought crime. In fact, the point here is just this: there is no thought whatsoever from JMax and accordingly he cannot be prosecuted, and even less punished :)