Member Info for Flavius

This will be my last message here for a while. For a long time did I make the point that there was something fishy with the communication management of this company. And several time did I make the point that deliberately depressing the SP could be a strategy put in place by the ownership (very concentrated as we all know) in order to ultimately purchase the floating share for peanuts and finally delist the company.

Everything has happened recently just confirmed my concerns. Very pessimistic and doomsday like updates spreading fear, but not only this. Also inexplicable communications disasters like what we have witnessed 2 months ago. When the SP skyrocketed over the 20p, someone was very unhappy with that and spread a total BS hit piece claiming that a "takeover deal" nobody was actually aware of, had collapsed. We expected a reaction from the company and instead, total silence. Silence means being complicit in cases like this. Clearly the "concentrated ownership" of TLW was unhappy with the SP spike and supported the hit piece with...silence.

Since then, -50% of the SP based on NOTHING. Absolutely nothing new compared to what was known and visible to everyone two months ago. And now big hands of that "concentrated ownership" pop up and buy millions of shares. Does this add up to anybody here (apart for Jmax-xxnjr)?

Only thing LTH can do to sabotage this action is just mirror ownership actions: do they buy? Buy yourself. Do not sell them your shares for nothing, after holding so long. And do not listen to the servants of those interests writing on this forum.

There's nothing bad and even less "criminal" in what we are witnessing here. It's just about making the right choice. As always on the stock exchange.

Good luck all LTH here.

What is pushing you xxjnr to write compulsively in a JMax style on this forum if you are not invested here? Most of us openly shared their strategies and tried to support them along the way. You popped out of the blue just to play the part of the knowledgeable guy which in the end only spins a deramping narrative. You're working for an agenda you are not willing to disclose. And accordingly your statements are the most unreliable here.

There's clearly a concerted action to get the SP collapse. Literally seconds after I inserted my order, a new selling order 10p lower was added out of the blue. Have a look at the incredibly high concentration of shareholding in a few hands. Do you really think that SP actions of this magnitude are delivered over the head of the major shareholders? Nonsense. Look at what they do, and just do the same. Be it 7,8,9 or 10 pence, it does make no difference when this is up back to the 30s.

What would you do if you were one of the major shareholders of a company with quite few floating shares with significant losses accumulated on your positions? I would scare the shareholders with very conservative statements, creating suspense about refinancing, understate good news or ongoing takeover negotiations. I would then let the SP collapse and buy in the weakness. To lower my average share price and increase my profits when the takeover negotiations are completed, or after refinancing is achieves. That's why RG 2,000,000 buy is a strong buy signal. For everyone. I have increased my position today by 20,000 more and will do the same as shorters keep trying to sink it deeper.

I recall very well when the SP was 7: even then, plenty of vultures and jackals shouting about the company being broke, insolvency, impossibility to refinance etc etc. I bought some shares at those levels, and it was my best investment ever.

Same vultures in action today. Not JMAX but apparently well educated "subject matter experts" who alternate wise and reasonable statements with total BS aimed only at depressing the SP.

Let's not forget that this is the only place online where TLW issues are debated at daily basis. It should therefore not surprise anyone that some posters here serve that agenda of the same entities which for example just one month ago were discussing a merger for a SP level 3-times higher than the current one. The same actors highly likely are using this place to promote the short narrative leading to a takeover for peanuts. Don't need to look far away from here: this is exactly what they did with another unfortunate company on th LSE (wood group). TLW though sits on hundreds of million barrels of oil and there is material wealth sustaining the business, unlike Wood.

All bets are open. Leave alone doomsayers, vultures and jackals: they are serving other agendas. DYOR.

Xx respectfully speaking, your latest statement is total nonsense and JMAX in his latest statement sounds like a super-expert compared to you. 2P reserves are the key, not current production. Production in itself is just part of the equation. If you have all the infrastructure necessary to produce your 2P reserves, then it's all about drilling more and managing production enhancement (water injection and gas lift). Add that the company's value is zero. 1 billion debt is not that much if capitalization is zero, you produce 40k bpd and add 10k more bpd with the equivalent of 10-20 million expenditure. A takeover for 30-40p would be an excellent business for a "white knight", considering TLW assets are probably worth the equivalent of about 60 p. Hence, buying this share for 10p is an excellent business, at least in a speculative approach.

There's obviously the whole herd of scammers, manipulators and shorters in full swing, each one with their own agenda (lending money at usurious interest rates, takeover for pinuts etc etc). They are obviously feeding the collapse in the SP. But on the other hand, everybody now the current evaluation of this company is simply hilarious. 1-year evenues from the last well drilled in Ghana are higher than TLW capitalization, which is telling in itself. Even in a conservative estimate of 2P reserves at 250 Mm barrels (after extension to 2040 of Ghana licence) would be worth about 2 billion GBP, i.e. equivalent to a SP of about 50-60 p.

Buying at this price level is a very educated strategy in my opinion. I'll further increase if the SP keeps falling or even remains at these levels.

I do not agree that 70$ is a break even price. Jubilee is a field which needs to be addressed more like a shale play than a conventional offshore field. You need to keep drilling wells on a regular basis, address production issues quickly and effectively. Cost-oil enables a quick recovery of expenditures and profit oil thereinafter. If you keep drilling you keep making profits as the infrastructure is already there.

The big miss from RD was the crafty approach "let's drill a few wells and see" , which led to a long period with no drilling activities, shutdowns, production issues, and plagued with litigations, asset relinquishment and all the rest of things we very well know. This crafty management led to the need to reassess seismic and proceed with a rationale long-term drilling approach including exploration wells potentially leasing to 2P reserves increase.

This business can arguably be very profitable also at 70$ OP. Current share price only reflect past issues and discount an imminent insolvency that is not priced in the bonds though. Everything points to us being at the bottom in the inflection point. In spite of all the past issues I remain optimistic about the future.

As many already highlighted, the drop in production was well known to most of us. Unfortunately though, not to most of the market, hence the umpteenth bloodbath. There's a few interesting points worth highlighting though:

- Yes, the GOR has been increasing, but rather than an ominous sign, this is just the outcome of a gas-lift production enhancement campaign nobody was actually aware of. Will it work? Hope so.

- Yes, production rate has been decreasing. Mostly because of poor performance of last wells, but also due to (well known) issues with water injection. The recent shut down was due to address such WI issues. Will it work? Hope so.

- Apparently more seismic is coming by the end of the year? Whatever, the real news here is that an exploration infilling campaign will be delivered. All the bets of management are on increasing 2P reserves through additional exploration in Ghana. Maybe consequential to the 4D exploration processing? There's reason for hope here.

- The newly-drilled well was apparently more successful than forecast (bigger pay).

All in all, there's space for optimism here. Production enhancement ongoing, new wells being drilled, potential for additional 2P reserves with ILX exploration. Not enough of course: debt refinancing is key, and OP is the real thorn in the side making everything more complicated.

But honestly, I'm not aware of other investments which could potentially provide a 100-200% SP increase in a short time. I'll then keep my shares where they are, and even increase if the SP drops further. Time will tell.

I honestly can't see any alternative outcome than a TO/merger. The whole strategy of current management has been focused on relinquishing assets (still ongoing and including even the last exploration assets left), reducing the debt and cleaning the table turning the company into a sort of "Ghana Ltd". It goes without saying, the current value of the company is the equivalent value of its Ghanaian assets. Hence the focus on production optimization, drilling campaigns and finalization of 4D seismic assessment.

With this premise, I cannot see any other outcome than a TO by a company interested in increasing its African portfolio, or a merger with another Africa-focused player. With this in mind I'm not going to sell my shares and I'll keep waiting for the announcement that will bring the SP back into the 30s. Live in hope...

Trouble is the SP is so low that even a 2p drop accounts for a 15% loss. TLW market cap is the equivalent of 10 months' evenues from the last well put into production: a joke. Considering the very small amount of floating share, shorters have always the upper hand here.

The 12-13p level is acting as a magnet for shorters and dumb algos. A very easy job considering that volumes are so miserable that the amount of shares exchanged in a day is the equivalent of the cost of a (luxury?) car. On the other hand, for the same reason (ridiculous volumes) when debt is refinanced this could go up several folds, especially when a TO offer is put on the table. I'm going to increase further as it approaches 12-13 support levels.

Considering the ridiculous volumes you just need a few tens of thousands shares. Peanuts.

The higher the OP, the lower the SP, this is just laughable. Clearly shorters are protecting their 'babies' to facilitate an exit strategy ahead of refinancing. Scammers and manipulators do their usual tricks, but on the other hand this definitely looks like a possible last chance to top up at a ridiculously low SP. I added almost 20,000 yesterday, I'm adding more in the next few days.

Let me just recall that just a supposed rumor about a potential takeover brought he SP some 50% higher than current levels, few weeks ago. Today, with money just cashed-in from Kenya and Gabon, a rifinancing looming and OP more resilient than in any forecast few weeks back this SP is just ridiculous and offers a potential for at least a three-fold increase (Shore Capital TP is 45, by the way).

The cheaper, the more attractive.

Directors leaving = takeover looming ??

I'm more than happy now for just the same reason why I felt miserable 20 minutes ago. This is really great news because now the way is well paved for a smooth refinancing. Don't care at all if it ends red or green today. It's a shorters' problem what to do with a debt refinancing looming.

PS: I added just a few more (18,000) just as a sigh of relief.

Coupe de Teathre!!! :):):)

We have a proverb in Italy: "you don't approach the thief waving money in your hands". Unfortunately this is what TLW has been doing in the last one year. Rather than refinancing the debt well ahead of expiry it entered into a complex strategy of asset dismissal and takeover negotiations with the potential lenders waiting by the river. Not only waiting, but most probably deliberately sabotaging those same negotiations in order to lend their money at the highest possible rate, squeezing residual value from the company at the expense of shareholders. Hit pieces on newspapers, unfounded 'rumors', done deals suddenly collapsing because of financial partners "cannot find the money". And trolls pesting the forums to feed the short narrative. Everything playing into the hands of lenders and shooters, to the detriment of shareholders. This is the FTSE, but this is also the consequence of extremely poor and crafty choices made by an unsuitable management.

It is what it is. And we can just wait and see. Hoping in a miracle.

Xx yes, we have been told many times about the poor performance of specific wells after the previous infilling / WI campaign. Hence the disappointing production rates that lead to the SP drop some... One year ago. Hence the 4D seismic campaign, future infilling campaigns and all the rest of It. We have been spending some...One year talking about these issues actually.

JMAX you definitely miss the point here: I'm talking about the actual OP vs. the 65$ base case scenario, that's it.