Member Info for Flavius

Yes, and significant volumes. Someone is buying a lot at 14.00, relentlessly since this morning...

I must confess...yesterday afternoon I got my finger on the 'sell' button. Then I thought "if this stuff bounces even just 5 pc, that's 40% gain". And I refrained. That's where we are actually: if it re-tests the 8 pc bottom, that's 45% less from the current SP. If it heads up to 20 pc, that's a 45% gain. In my opinion it's more risky selling at this SP level than holding on: a positive update about debt refinancing, farm-outs, exploration 4D in Ghana or Kenya could send this back to the 20s or even more, ad I don't wanna miss this opportunity. Fingers crossed, as usual.

It's actually puzzling... the word is literally being turned upside down, and here we are, left on this forum arguing about a penny-stock company. We are an interesting psychiatric case study I guess.

60% Is protected with a 59$ floor. In a disastrous scenario of 40$ Brent OP (meaning WTI around 35$) average TLW price would be about 51.5 USD, comfortably at break even levels. Management did a good job here, arguably as a sound hedging strategy is a prerequisite for debt refinancing.

Keeps overperforming the sector... interesting...

Keeps overperforming the sector... interesting...

You wouldn't make even 200 million out of that. Add that at the current OP levels selling asset is definitely not a very wise move overall.. Silver lining is interest rates will probably head lower, maybe significantly lower, which could help in refinancing the debt at lower cost. Good move selling out Gabon ahead of this catastrophe and wait for lower IR before refinancing the outstanding debt.

The bad stuff here is that clearly OPEC+ decided to pull the plug and oversupply the market to depress oil price and hit the USA shale production. They do not need to bring the OP down to 30-40$ as in the past, as due to natural depletion, increasing water cut and GOR, even 60$ are enough to kill a significant shale US production. The problem is, will TLW be able to bear this? And for how long? Disposal of Gabon production was definitely the right choice in this scenario, otherwise we would be in much deeper trouble now. Lower interest rates will help refinance the debt. Overall, we could be in much worse position than now. Let's wait and see...

Best O&G share today, probably worldwide :) What is more, with decent volumes. Clearly someone is steadily buying the dips. And hopefully soon we'll know why.

all in all i appreciate tlw's very cautious approach to asset evaluation even when this leads to write-offs and "bad press" thereinafter. this is especially important considering the ****e-show we are witnessing with wood group. better look pessimist and over-deliver rather than the contrary. reputation is everything, in our business. i expect something will happen soon in kenya and the proliferation of "news" on the subject is maybe just the consequence of increased interest in the project by many stakeholders. time will tell.

There's no news here, this actually comes from the latest business update. As the Project is constantly postponed, write offs need to be issued accordingly as the *theoretical* cash flow associated with a *hypothetical* project development is generated over a shorter time frame as the expiry date of the licence remains unchanged.

Another day, another shorters' morning glory event, followed by a delusional softening as buyers pop up and buy the dip. Hopefully something is happening soon... Time will tell

In a "normal day" after the 1M+ short selling order was placed early in the morning the SP would have collapsed for the rest of the day. Something rather unusual happened today as buyers immediately popped-up. The usual trick apparently did not succeed. Hopefully something is brewing and opportunistic buyers are acting accordingly...

Huge selling orders this morning driving the SP down in a few minutes. They're back apparently.

Considering most of the trading on the LSE is by machines and AD (read: Artificial Dementia), today's movement is most probably related with the umpteenth SP catastrophic drop by Wood Group (what the heck is happening there!!!). Not by chance also Enquest dropped just about the same as TLW in spite of OP going up and all the sector being positive, worldwide.

Whatever, the good news remains that the OP is still at decent levels, US production is levelling off and driving season is approaching, which is all bullish overall for the O&G sector. Waiting for significant news regarding debt refinancing, drilling activities, 4D exploration in Ghana, Kenya etc. In the meantime Artificial Demented algos do their dirty jobs. Sooner or later the music will change.

volumes are the usual ****eshow and in fact in 15 minutes (between 10 and 10.15) selling some 150k gbp equivalent of shares achieved a drop of nearly 7%. ftse is clown world.

Actually the "news" about Stifel downgrading was available already this morning. In spite of this, and of concurrent downgrading by Canaccord, the SP skyrocketed today. Guess something is brewing and more breaking news will be provided soon.

Big spike on big volumes, maybe some more news coming? Or maybe just a technical movement due to break-out from the descending trendline that algos have been trading for the last...many months? Time will tell...

Xxnjr, I think views are not cast in stone. They change over time. Take lending for oil and gas projects: up to few months ago it was nearly impossible to achieve support by banks for O&G development projects, especially in Africa. Mozambique LNG by Total was stalled just because of lack of funding, and we're talking about project delivered by a super-major. After the change in the "green" and ESG narrative following US elections, banks are coming back again supporting such projects (see Total-Mozambique). Therefore I expect that something similar may happen in Kenya as well.

Ivory Coast exploration blocks were taken just a couple of years ago, and a farm-out was never put on the table up to yesterday, so this is definitely another story.

The PR is actually puzzling regarding development plans for Kenya and Cote d'Ivoire. TLW has been claiming for the last two years and up to "before-yesterday" that an exploration well was planned in CI in 2025. In the latest RNS they claim that "no further activity (is) planned following unsuccessful farm-down efforts". On the other hand on the same RNS it reads "We continue to assess options on the way forward for exploration licences CI-524 and CI-803."

Overall the takeaway is that the massive exploration write-offs in Kenya, CI and Argentina aimed at achieving a significant deferred tax benefit while leaving the door open for future developments. Let's consider that the equity of TLW in IC for exploration expenditures is 90%. Of course the company would like to find a partner to share costs (and risks) of exploration. Considering contiguity with Jubilee prospect, the latest exploration campaign in Ghana could provide some value in this regard and attract potential partners for a farm-down and exploration activities thereinafter.

All in all the RNS is very telling: 2025 will be focused only on Ghana, looking for farm-down opportunities in exploration assets and a big question mark for Kenya. As usual, only time will tell.