Member Info for Flavius

We haven't talked about it for a while but it goes without saying that a scenario where interest rates are expected to go down definitely benefits TLW. This helps supporting the SP and the bonds as well.

Another more 10k, just to keep lowering the average and accumulating on weakness...

This share is so cheap that 15 million GBP account for a 10% SP move. 15M GBP is the equivalent of about 20 days' revenues from a newly drilled well, just hilarious. And this probably explains why it is increasingly difficult for the SP to fall any further from these levels: it's already way too cheap to be ... cheaper.

If this doesn't go bust, then any positive catalyst (read oil price, production increase, takeover rumors, refinancing etc.) would send the SP skyrocketing. I'm just waiting for that moment to come, sooner or later, as all the possible negative news are accounted for in the current SP level. I have accumulated more shares in the last weeks lowering my average to 18p and I'll buy more little chunks as it increasingly looks like having bottomed at around 10p.

Time will tell but I wanna be optimistic about the future.

Anton, I agree that 500,000 shares are not that much. But on the other hand, yesterday that "little" accounted for 10% of the overall daily volumes. They were dropped at CoB and accordingly sold out at the lowest price of the day. It remains inexplicable to me. But... whatever. I'm here to play by 30+p game: one penny more or less doesn't make any difference to me at this SP level.

I don't agree. Capitalization is only 150 mm GBP , the equivalent of a few weeks' revenues and some 15% of its debt. Totally crazy. TLW is priced like a totally bust company with almost no reserves, no producing assets, just liabilities. This is not reflective of fundamentals, it just reflects an imminent insolvency (which is clearly denied by bond quotation). My strategy doesn't obviously change because of daily manipulations. But numbers are there and some trades like the ones we often see by CoB do not simply make sense. Or they do really make sense but only under the light of a share manipulation.

Why on Earth should anyone be dropping 500,000 shares at CoB in order to drain all the bids, destroy the SP and sell at the lowest price of the day? Has anyone an explanation for such an apparently suicide move? (An explanation which is not a simple and plain deliberate manipulation of the SP, of course..)

Feels like someone big is relentlessly disposing of his shares taking any opportunity (read spikes up) and accordingly adding more selling positions until there's no bid left. Feels like this action is systematic: as bid increases, ask increases more until it drains the bid and SP collapses accordingly. The fact that a majority of shareholders are institutional for sure amplifies the effects of such action.

There's of course several explanations for this: as we approach 2026 maturity date in the absence of a refinancing, institutionals are someway forced to leave the boat as they do not have the flexibility of retail investors in managing insolvency risks. Another explanation is that considering the extremely low volumes, any potential party interested in a cheap takeover can easily manipulate the SP to keep it as low as possible and facilitate a takeover for a few pence (literally).

Whatever the reason, the price action is clear. We need catalysts for a real change here. And they are very well known: debt refinancing, production increase and OP. In their absence we'll just keep drifting in trouble waters with miserable SP reflecting all the uncertainties currently unaddressed. I repeat: patience will pay off in my opinion, and TLW is a "gamble" (to use xx terms) that it's worth to be taken. Not worth complaining or losing one's sleep for daily SP moves if you have a long-term plan in place.

Euphoria does never last for more than 24h here as shorters, scammers and manipulators always come to the rescue of their positions every time they are threatened by spikes up. All in all, appointing a new CEO is not that kind of news that upsets the applecart: it's a good sign but fundamentals are there with very well-known issues obviously still left to be addressed (read debt and production). It will take time, and patience.

Honestly, I'm no longer interested in day-by-day SP moves and this boring clown show of big buys by the opening being promptly compensated by shorters "rescue-teams" leaves me now totally indifferent. Should refinancing and production issues be properly addressed, this will be a multibagger opportunity. And this is the only thing I'm actually interested in.

1.25% to 2.5% of revenues after tax. More or less the equivalent of 2-to-5 kbpd

Once in a while I agree with Xx: this is more of a gamble rather than an investment. But... It's a...promising gamble in my opinion.

What we have witnessed so far is very consequential: approaches were made by potential bidders, and they "collapsed" quickly. Easy to guess that interest in this company is high due to the extremely low SP, but the sharks around are somewhat reluctant of biting the prey due to too many uncertainties, namely:

- Debt refinancing (we all know this subject)

- Reserves: 2P reserves are a question mark until TLW demonstrates that production issues have been successfully overcome and the 4D seismic is adequately supporting the incoming infilling campaign

- 3P reserves can be significantly increased in case of successful drilling in not-yet-explored areas (hence the OBN campaign recently announced)

Overall, as all the facilities are already in place, an increase in 2P or 3P reserves would be reflected in a significant increase of the SP, even in a low OP scenario as the current one.

With these premises, TLW in my opinion a multi-bagger opportunity. There's of course a worst-case scenario where you can lose all. But it's up to ourselves deciding what to do. My (hopefully educated)-guess is that TLW is creating the conditions for a takeover at a SP which is satisfactory to the shareholders. Time will tell. DYOR as usual and good luck all.

Drop at COB is a trademark for TLW. By the way most often the issue is that volumes by the closure in Europe are even smaller than during the day, And when the Americans sell by the opening of WS there is not enough demand, hence the collapse in the last 1-2 hours. WS was closed today but algos don't go on vacations.

Anyways, who cares? I added a few further shares (8,000) as per my accumulation plans.

Additional seismic investigations are probably meant to facilitate a takeover from potential buyers. Considering the issues TLW has faced recently with production management, additional seismic (including the 4D survey recently completed and under processing) will help a lot to better understand the reservoir and accordingly assess 2P reserves. It goes without saying, also this is in line with a takeover case.

I've become rather indifferent to SP fluctuations on a daily basis: it's all about bottom-seekers trying to buy cheap and then closing their positions as their stop losses are incurred when a bigger fish sell enough shares to destroy the SP in a few minutes. It's all the same movie with scammers and manipulators on the one hand, and just a few retail gamblers on the other hand, buying and selling in accordance with their greedy or panic mood.

Overall, like it or not, either this is a multibagger opportunity or it's a broke company. Current SP reflects the latter case. DYOR and good luck all.

Honestly I don't think xx is posting with "deramping motivation" :) rather it looks like he has something personal against the current company management. I guess we all have something against them by the way :) Overall, deramping this share doesn't look a wise move as the current SP is already discounting a default on the debt. Any good news in this regard would send the SP skyrocketing.

I'd have preferred to be navigating on some more comfortable ship like Nvidia or the likes, but here I am and with the amount of money already lost on this cause, I can just go on, and hope for the best.

Insiders 9%

Institutional 67%

Private companies 14%

General Public 9%

Others 1%

Algos and manipulators (which is a synonym somehow) are working stubbornly to re-test the 7p minimum. Every day by the closure a flood of selling orders is downloaded to make sure there is not enough bid and achieve a SP collapse accordingly. Every day the same trick by the closing auction: yesterday they achieved a closure in the 1-digit, today -16p: from 9.39 to 9.23 in the CAS only. It's a very well coordinated effort, as we have many times seen back in the past.

No wonder directors buy some 10, 20 or 30% higher. They will buy again. They're just lowering their average SP like every shareholder should do as the big hands manipulating this share have their plan, and not necessarily all the major shareholders are aware of that plan. Only thing they can do is buying on weakness to average down and speculate on the rebound, when the manipulators decide it's enough.

Jmax you're sounding unusually wise recently... are you buying TLW shares? :):):)

Only 9% of shares are held by general public. Major shareholders (more than 3%) hold about 60% of shares. In case a major shareholders sells or buys at least an additional 1% he is obliged to disclose it. Current capitalization is just 140 M GBP. This means that the whole company can be purchased for peanuts: only 70M are required for control, at current SP. Accordingly:

- Negligible amount of shares held by retail investors implies great volatility. At the same time, it also implies that retail has nearly zero power in facilitating or opposing a takeover.

- Current capitalization implies an extremely high risk of insolvency: as current SP is nearly zero. This is clearly an overly-pessimistic assumption: in case of debt refinancing the SP could skyrocket accordingly.

- Current capitalization is so low that any major shareholder (or a group of them) could decide to take over the whole company, even through an hostile takeover bid. It would be sufficient for them to have an agreement for debt refinancing already on the table with financial institutions . By the way, some such big fish are already major shareholders in TLW (e.g. Goldman Sachs).

With the above premises, IMHO a takeover is highly likely, even by some of current major shareholders. It goes without saying, a dramatic fall in the SP would quite facilitate such a move, as an otherwise ridiculous offer (e.g. 20p) would today be attractive to many desperate shareholders willing to leave the (non-)sinking boat.

The above case would explain the relentless shorting of shares, the newspaper hit-pieces that destroyed the SP two months ago when it reached 22p, and the nonsensical selling ongoing at already historically low SP levels. And, even more, the self-harming communications management we've witnessed for quite some time. As we say in Italy "if you think badly you are a sinner, but almost always you get it right". Someone is deliberately destroying the SP to complete a takeover for peanuts because he already has a pool of banks behind, supporting the transaction? We will know soon.

In the meantime, IMHO it is wise buying additional small lots of shares on weakness. The alternatives being selling at nonsensically low price now, or keeping one's shares at an average price that would be much higher than a potential SP for such cheap TO. As usual DYOR, from the beach or wherever else you are :)

4 million **************d at opening, sp 10.03. then with more 50k shares exchanged, -4%. manipulation at its finest.

Xx you clearly have access to info which is not available to most of us writing here. Either you worked for this company or you have access to info made available for financing or merging purposes. Who knows. I only know you don't want to disclose the reason for you interest in this company. Because no one without an agenda would spend the amount of time you spend here to convey your points or view (all bearish by the way). Anyways this space is open to anyone including to people unwilling to disclose their agenda or interests. I don't need to filter you, listening to the points of view and arguments of derampers is interesting to me in any case.

Yes sure xxnjr you came here as a benefactor to save all of us from hell. And that's why you spread panic with nonsense arguments like an ominous increasimg GOR (which was simply a production enhancement) or deliberately ignored justifications for the loss of production on TEN (works on the flare) and so on and so forth.