Member Info for Flavius

Seplat gas production share was about 50% before take-over of Exxon assets, then falling down to about 32-35%. Future production increase is mostly linked to the ANOH gas development, and accordingly gas share will increase again up to about 50% share. We're comparing apples with oranges. And Nigeria, whatever the sovereign debt upgrade, is a country where very few international companies are willing to work, especially onshore, for reasons that are... very well known. Apples with oranges :)

Xx you buy reserves, not boepd :) Seplat is going to produce about 60% of gas (and increase further the gas share over time). What is more, Seplat sells gas mostly to the local Nigerian market, not a big business, isn't it? Let's add the political uncertainty (euphemism) considering they're operating in one of the most unstable areas in the world. I wouldn't compare apples with oranges honestly. Let's suppose TLW will increase 2P reserves up to about 130 MM boe after contracts' extension and additional reserves from 4D/OBM. And let's take a average 20 USD /bbl market value of such reserves. That would make 2,6b USD i.e. about 1.9b GBP. Which would be equivalent to a share price of about 35-40 p. This IS NOT a broken CPY but a CPY in a liquidity crisis. Still a very juicy prey for a discounted evaluation of, say, 25 to 30 p.

So far it is impossible to understand whether the recent jump in the SP is linked to an imminent refinancing or just to algos buying oil companies on the LSE. On the other hand the significant increase in volumes allows opportunistic buyers (moved by rumors?) to find enough offer as profit takers close their positions. It goes without saying that the OP increase, together with (slightly) decreasing interest rates and increasing production paves the way for a refinancing at less penalizing conditions. What is more, it makes the takeover case more interesting overall. Just speculation, but we will know soon.

Xx I've always paid attention to your contributions as (in spite of different viewpoints) I've appreciated you have a deep insight into TLW' environment. If on the one hand I'm relieved that you are getting increasingly more confident about TLW' production and management overall of Jubilee, on the other hand I concur that we are still blind as nobody really knows what's happening behind the curtains. Clearly TLW is not a broken company, but rather a company in a liquidity crisis but with significant oil reserves and cash flow. My personal opinion is that once the liquidity crisis is addressed someway, then a flow of positives might follow suit: resolution of outstanding payments, additional 2P reserves, and potentially even exploration wells. Market is apparently finally understanding that the "supply glut" has never materialized, nor will it do in the future and accordingly oil companies SP are skyrocketing even in the current depressed OP scenario. Everything points to an imminent repricing of TLW. Nobody knows, though, if this will be achieved (also) at the expense of shareholders. I expect a (relatively small) recapitalization will be part of the deal, but the SP will react positively to any decent refinancing scheme, and accordingly such recapitalization could be a good business for participants. Whatever, we can just wait and see, and hope.

" Jefferies noted that the stock's recent performance has been heavily "beaten-down," and the upgrade reflects a more balanced outlook following a rebound in early 2026 "

" Tullow Oil received a rating upgrade today, February 4, 2026, from analysts at Jefferies.

Analyst Mark Wilson raised the recommendation on the stock from Underperform to Hold. Simultaneously, Jefferies increased the price target to 7p (up from 6p) "

Xx, spot on. I further interrogated Gemini on this point, it actually said that the outstanding payments would be included in the transaction, i.e. TLW would accept to receive only a part of those 200M and in return Ghana would "accept" to purchase an additional stake in the field at a market price (rather than at a major discount, as one would expect in a distressed debt case).

One more interesting point it raised is that we are not dealing with a "bankrupt company" here, as the intrinsic value of the assets is likely much higher than the combination of current capitalization + debt. Rather, it's a typical case of liquidity crisis. Accordingly, it should not be ruled out that major shareholders (and, potentially also GNPC) agree for a capital increase aimed at just partially reducing the debt (e.g. 300 M) by purchasing additional shares at a higher price than the market price. Though counterintuitive, this scenario (including potentially backstopped right issues) would be quite profitable even for the participants in the recapitalization as the SP would easily double or triple as a result of the resolution of the debt crisis. Should Ghana take part in this "white knight" recapitalization, they would also increase their share in the field. All in all, a combination of "amend and extend", increase of GNPC share and limited recapitalization with a "floor SP price" could be an outcome that makes all stakeholders happy (without destroying the residual shareholders, BTW).

I interrogated Gemini on possible outcomes of the debt issue and the response is that a (partial?) takeover by Ghana is one of the most likely outcomes:

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Summary: The Strategic Case for a Jubilee Divestment & State Swap

The prospect of Tullow selling a 10% stake in the Jubilee field is now considered a high-probability "liquidity bridge" as the May 2026 deadline approaches. This strategy is reinforced by two critical factors:

The Kosmos Precedent: In early 2026, the GNPC (Ghana National Petroleum Corporation) successfully executed a $199 million acquisition of a 7% interest in Jubilee and TEN from Kosmos Energy. This transaction sets a clear market benchmark and confirms the Ghanaian government's "pre-emptive" strategy to consolidate ownership of its most productive assets using available capital.

The $200M Arrears Leverage: Tullow currently carries over $200 million in outstanding receivables from the Ghanaian government. A "Debt-for-Asset" swap is highly likely: instead of demanding cash that could further strain Ghana's fiscal position, Tullow could trade a portion of its Jubilee stake back to the state. This would simultaneously wipe out the government's debt and provide Tullow with the balance sheet relief needed to satisfy its bondholders.

Valuation Impact:

Based on the Kosmos deal, a 10% stake in Jubilee is estimated to be worth between $250M and $350M. For Tullow, this is a game-changer:

It validates that the company’s assets are worth significantly more than its current £100M market cap.

It provides a non-dilutive way to raise cash, avoiding the "death spiral" of issuing new shares at 6-7 pence.

It aligns with Roald Goethe’s strategy of deep political engagement to de-risk the company's Ghanaian operations.

Conclusion:

By following the path already cleared by Kosmos and using the $200M in unpaid bills as a bargaining chip, Tullow has a credible "Plan B" to survive May 2026. This move would transform the company into a leaner, state-partnered entity, potentially triggering a massive re-rating of the share price as the threat of bankruptcy vanishes.

XX, Stanley, I think TLW is keeping all their cards hidden. Possibly they have even overindulged in pessimism in the latest update to improve their leverage over creditors as too much doom and gloom was provided compare with KOS updates. Maybe they will be proved right when they come out with a "holistic" plan including refinancing, 2P reserve increase, resolution of pending disputes: too good to be true? Maybe. But who can tell? I just think that in the current situation TLW silence is understandable if they have many things cooking in the pot, and they're almost ready to serve them. The alternative is much bleaker of course. And of course it cannot be ruled out either.

Thanks xx, all very interesting, within the usual limits of the AI (i.e. the tendency to please the human being :)) As you said, as we said, actually information is too little to come to any conclusion for the simple fact that the very outcomes of the 4D exploration have not been disclosed openly. One may argue that additional 2P reserves will be added. But my personal feeling is that TLW management is dealing with this and many other issues by the same table with their most important stakeholders. Unfortunately, we're blind. More or less hopeful, but blind.

Hi xx, honestly I don't understand why you're so concerned with that feedback: it's worth what it's worth and that's it. Unless you're short and worried accordingly, that should not make or waste your day. In any case that was a reply to a question I asked on google AI (not ChatGPT, my mistake, it was google), where I asked information about additional pay in the last two wells. I challenged Google myself, honestly, as some details were clearly wrong (50m additional pay was nonsense, and in fact it modified its statement to the 50m total). I repeatedly asked for the sources as I couldn't myself find those same information on the two hyperlinks I shared here. It made also reference to a "conference call" I couldn't recover myself online.

All in all, it would be a game changer if it was true. The only point is, it is not true until it is proven and formally shared by the CEO. Personally I think that is a reliable scenario as after the 4D exploration (and even more in the future, with the OBN) it is perfectly reasonable that a much deeply investigate reservoir offers opportunities for exploration of additional levels. It is otherwise the same credible that TLW would keep all its cards hidden in order to present the market with a holistic view of the business including debt refinancing, outstanding payments resolutions, and additional 2P reserves rather than providing bits and pieces here and there along the road.

Will it really be so rosy? I honestly don't know. I'm just keeping my left overs there hoping for a good surprise in the future. The truth is, nobody really knows anything here about what's happening behind the curtains. And neither AI does.

4p or 8p does not make any difference for investors still believing in a happy ending of the debt refinancing soap opera. It does not make any difference because their base case is going back to the 20-25p area. Likewise, for those ones who bet on insolvency, these are great opportunities for trading intra-day. At the end of the day, the real driver behind these SP rollercoaster it's...bots: if they need to sell and there is no bid, you get what you get, and you don't get upset.

But the REAL driver here is debt management, pending disputes resolution, outstanding payments: we don't know anything about this stuff, it's just a guess, and everybody is righteously making his bet, guess, however you like to call it. For the rest, OP is manipulated as always since the beginning of Trump administration: in spite of a very healthy demand they need to depress the price for geopolitical reasons and US domestic political reasons: this manipulation won't last for long, but as long as it lasts... one should not expect OP back into the 3-digits just because the US moves a few ships to the Gulf.

(continues)... This increases the Effective Drainage Radius of each well, essentially allowing one well to do the work of 1.5 wells in previous models.

3. Operational Impact

The "J-74" Result: This specific well was completed across three distinct zones simultaneously. By tapping into the additional layer alongside the primary ones, it achieved an initial flow rate that significantly contributed to the field’s return to ~70,000 bopd gross.

Capex Efficiency: Because the reservoir is more connected, the partnership may be able to defer or cancel some future "infill" wells, as the current wells are draining a larger volume of the reservoir than planned.

Where this is documented:

These specifics were detailed in Kosmos Energy's January 2026 operational updates and technical briefs from Offshore Energy regarding the Noble Venturer rig’s performance

Had a chat with chatgpt about latest reservoir updates from Jubilee field.. it sounds really interesting...

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Here is a succinct summary of the technical and operational updates regarding Tullow Oil and the Jubilee Field as of January 2026:

Technical & Operational Breakthroughs

Reservoir Connectivity: Recent petrophysical logs from the J-72 and J-74 wells confirmed superior pressure communication across reservoir compartments. This indicates the field acts as a more unified hydraulic system than previously modeled, allowing for more efficient drainage.

Additional Production Layers: Drilling operations by the Noble Venturer intercepted new high-quality sand intervals (net pay) at deeper or lateral horizons. These additional layers were not fully accounted for in prior reserve estimates.

Production Impact: This geological "upside" helped restore gross production at Jubilee to approximately 70,000 bopd in early 2026, offsetting natural decline and providing a path toward the 100,000 bopd medium-term target.

License Extension: Based on these incremental reserves and the enhanced reservoir model, the Government of Ghana granted a formal extension for the Jubilee and TEN licenses until 2040, significantly boosting the company’s Net Asset Value (NAV).

Financial Context

Equity vs. Debt: The identification of these additional reserves is being used by management to argue that the company is asset-rich but cash-constrained. This supports the narrative that a "debt-for-equity swap" is unnecessary, as the underlying asset value far exceeds the current depressed market cap (~£117M).

Regarding the additional layers and technical specifics, here is the breakdown of what was discovered during the recent Jubilee South East (JSE) drilling campaign (late 2025/early 2026):

1. Geological Specifics: The "Deep Jubilee" Horizons

The latest wells (specifically J-74) targeted the Turonian turbidite sands. While the original models focused on the primary "Mahogany" and "Teak" horizons, these wells intercepted:

Extra "Net Pay": A previously secondary or unmapped lower sand interval proved to be significantly thicker than anticipated, adding roughly 50 meters of high-quality net pay.

Reservoir Quality: Petrophysical logs (LWD - Logging While Drilling) showed porosity and permeability in these deeper layers that matched or exceeded the primary reservoirs, which is rare for deeper horizons.

2. Enhanced Connectivity & "Pressure Support"

The technical breakthrough isn't just the extra oil; it's how it moves:

Vertical Communication: Pressure tests (MDT/RFT) confirmed that these additional layers are in hydraulic communication with the main reservoir body. This means they act as a "pressure buffer," helping to maintain the natural flow of the field longer than expected.

Lateral Continuity: The logs suggest these sands are more continuous across the field rather than being isolated "pods." (Continues...)

First time I've seen a SP spike up into the close for such a long time... While on the one hand sea-bottom fishermen are taking the opportunity to cash in their profits after buying extra cheap in the last bloodbath, the good sign in my view is that there's quite a few buyers popping up. Arguably the extra low volumes in the last few months have prevented buyers from stepping in with decent positions. Who knows. Hopefully something major is brewing...

Oil refineries in the US are all set for heavy oil and have been historically unable to utilize the light shale oil produced locally. Venezuela produce very heavy oil which can be conveniently blended with lighter shale oil in order to increase the share of US oil available to their refineries.

US industry needs have always been the driver behind major moves in the energy sector: when Russia converted their refineries to feed Europe with their low sulfur distillates, then the propaganda against diesel engines was started and gasoline was imposed by the EU as the "cleanest fuel" . Then Germany tried to save its automotive industry by forcing transition to electrical to the whole EU while in the meantime converting their engines to the crappy electrical/hybrid models that we are forced to buy at twice the price.

It's all about money and it's all about power. Every country is slave to another (with one major exception) and has slaves to submit for compensation purposes. Hence "trains or misfortune" are formed, like US-Germany-France-Italy-Greece and-the-like.

There's obviously several reasons for the recent bumps in the SP:

- the market was discounting a catastrophic scenario where the OP was destined to collapse down to 30-40$. However laughable (especially considering oil demand stubbornly on the rise at worldwide level) this implies a nightmarish scenario for indebted companies like TLW. OP repricing is obviously helping in this regard

- Current OP around 70$ allows oil companies to further hedge against future drops (?) at cheaper conditions. Hopefully TLW won't overindulge in this, like 6 years ago.

- odds of a new conflict involving Iran are rising every day. An oil spike to thre digit area would have the effect or an earthquake on a such shorted market and industry overall.

Needless to say, the real issue for TLW is debt refinancing. If this happened in the current geopolitical scenario and with the further good news coming from the reservoir (additional wells and additional production layers introduced) with additional positive news coming from Ghana about outstanding payments, then the effect on the SP would be immense. But we are blind. Nobody knows what's happening behind the curtains. As usual, we live in hope.

Nice to see bounces in the double digits :) and even nicer with these volumes. Hopefully it's not only about the OP...

I know this topic has already been discussed, but I think it deserves more interest: Ghana Gov. has spent quite a significant effort in settling down disputes with gas and power producers, and TLW is in the list of the next ones to come. Even just an "agreed roadmap" for settlement of outstanding payments and and agreed price for future production would be quite helpful for negotiating decent terms of refinancing.

Ghana clears $1.47 billion in energy debts, finance ministry says

12/01/2026 11:31 - RSF

By Emmanuel Bruce

ACCRA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Ghana's government paid $1.47 billion in 2025 to clear legacy energy sector debts, restoring a depleted World Bank guarantee and settling arrears with power producers, the West African nation's finance ministry said on Monday.

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Ghana's power sector has been grappling with widespread unpaid debts that have led to a sharp increase in outages. Last year, President John Dramani Mahama promised to reduce the $2.5 billion owed to independent power producers and gas suppliers.

"The era of uncontrolled energy sector debt accumulation is over," the ministry said in a statement, adding that disciplined financial management had enabled the payments while securing provisions for timely future obligations.

The ministry said the government had repaid over $597 million to the World Bank, fully restoring the partial risk guarantee for gas supplies from the Offshore Cape Three Points field.

The guarantee, established in 2015, was designed to protect nearly $8 billion in private investment in the energy sector.

Its depletion had damaged the government's credibility with international partners.

An additional $480 million was paid to Italian energy company ENI (ENI.MI) and commodities trader Vitol for outstanding gas invoices related to electricity generation through the Sankofa Gas Project, the ministry said.

The government also settled approximately $393 million in legacy debts owed to independent power producers, including $120 million to Turkey's Karpowership and $59.4 million to Cenpower Generation, according to a breakdown provided by the ministry.

Independent power producers said in a separate statement that the clearance of long-outstanding obligations represents a major milestone in restoring financial stability and operational confidence across the power sector.

The government has also renegotiated all agreements with independent power producers and is working with Tullow Oil (TLW.L) and Jubilee Field partners on a payment roadmap, the ministry said.

Ghana is seeking to boost domestic gas production and reduce its reliance on expensive liquid fuels.

T-Man, KOS update is very interesting as previously-drilled wells were typically completed in 1-to-2 zones only. The latest two wells were completed in 3 zones. This might imply that an additional level is being put into production, possibly Mahogany Deep? Arguably this is a result of the recent 4D exploration campaign. If this is correct, an increase in 2P reserves is definitely in the cards. Let's wait for future updates...