Member Info for Flavius

So apparently, the same warm-hearted caretakers who started this mess to "help the Iranians" have now started destroying the economic lifeline of Iranian people by turning their oil fields into fuming rubbish. Apparently as Iranians stubbornly refuse to lose the war, now the super-smart "Plan B" of our heroes is turning Iran into a bigger-version of Gaza. Who might have seen this coming? Iranians will obviously retaliate by bombing Qatari North Dome as the destroyed South Pars facilities were draining gas from the same reservoir shared with Qatar. This is going to totally destroy the LNG market worldwide.

And this is just the first step to render the "Hormuz Crisis" a "no-crisis anymore", as there will be nothing to be exported from there, for years. "Let Samson die with the Philistines". We must all be ready to die, then... but there's a silver lining here: TLW would be saved in a scenario like this.

There's too many variables to consider here, which is what is capping the SP so far.

1) Oil price: sustained oil price at about 100USD would provide significant improvement to the capital structure overall. About 180M FCF arguably. On the other hand, assuming 100USD average for the whole 2026 is just a guess.

2) Hedging: no visibility provided by TLW so far. Hedging has always been managed very poorly in TLW, with "collar-type" contracts destroying the FCF in case of OP spikes (not all companies go for this type of protection: others just use protective puts, e.g. Kosmos). Did the new management change the approach to facilitate FCF growth in a positive OP scenario? Who knows.

3) "Kosmos case" : this is not a negligible issue. No one expected KOS to issue 200M worth shares in one night. But they did it. Under pressure from the creditors. Who can realistically rule out such a "blitz" for TLW as well? A hyper-diluitive one satisfying creditors' requests now well represented also at BoD level?

All in all, there's a pile of 1.3b debt, with a zero cash flow at 65$, an exorbitant debt cost of about 200M / year and several variables that as xx keeps repeating (righteously) do not depend on TLW but just on the market and on the mental sanity of key decision makers in the US, Israel and Iran (if any left). Not an ideal place to be, if you want to sleep well at night.

It was actually a good experience, I had the chance to buy more shares at 1.90 (the price of the new shares issued) and the day after I was already making a 18% profit. I honestly sleep much better on this new bed, but I anyway wish you all the best, because your best is also mine of course :) TLW can survive with the OP at 100$, but this needs to be "the new normal". A couple of months would obviously not be enough if you just consider oil production, debt and interest rates. But this is clear to anyone here I guess....

The issue is relatively simple: TLW does not need just a higher OP to stay afloat. This will not stay afloat at 65$, neither at 80$. For the simple reason that it burns almost 200M of interests every year, leaving no space for a healthy FCF generation. And most of all, leaving no sensible hope for a repayment of the debt in two years' time. That's why the SP goes down at any perspective of de-escalation (or even no-further-escalation). TLW needs 150-200 USD oil price for a few quarters to get out of the ditch dug by a blatantly incompetent management years ago.

See what Kosmos has done recently: they issued 200M USD worth shares in one night, and two days after the SP had already recovered all the relevant dilution. Less debt, cleaner balance sheet, production increasing, OPEX and interest payments decreasing and all the rest of it. And look at TLW: if the OP does not not fulfill the "dream case" scenario of the few quarters at 150-200 USD OP, the only chance for saving their skin is a recapitalization with 80-90% dilution of shareholders. There's simply no alternative between now and 2028 between the "dream case" and the nightmarish hyper-diluitive scenario. And the SP swings just reflect this.

So apparently I left TLW to avoid a recapitalization and I found myself in a recapitalization as a KOS shareholder :):)

Bad luck indeed ... but overall... this is just what TLW should have done long ago. Maybe the lesson was learned (by someone else)...

Anton, IMHO the big mistake many are making is assuming that it will be the US to end the war. Actually, it won't. Because Iran cannot accept a ceasefire and then just wait for the next decapitation strike and carpet-bombing. Even assuming the US decides that "mission is accomplished" this doesn't imply Iran will just say "OK". Nobody, though, is apparently paying any attention to the "enemy" viewpoint. This is truly "American" but maybe (maybe) this is the first time that narrative control is not entirely with the POTUS, as it is not him to decide for everyone this time. Iran is not Iraq, not Syria, not Libya, it's another story.

But for the moment Oil is traded in Wall Street by selling certificates (job as usual) and the supporting narrative is fabricated by their (our) media, as usual. Any different narrative will manifest only in the long time framework.

Many righteously talk about demand, offer, Hormuz strait, strategic reserves etc. etc. But unfortunately the price of oil is mostly made in Wall Street by buying and (especially) selling paper certificates. This task is typically delivered in order to support the political agenda of the POTUS and as he usually likes a low OP, then in WS there's a Rescue Team selling oil certificates whenever the boss asks so. As we saw yesterday, just a few words in an interview can be used to make the barrel 30$ cheaper in a while.

The same applies to the USD: devalue the USD is an additional tariff to foreign exporting countries, so who cares if the EU economy is in shambles: sell USD and buy EURO, even if the EU economy is a joke. The same was made for many, many years with gold. It's all about market manipulation. And this is perfectly normal: the US is the owner of the toy (WS), so they play with their toy as they find it more convenient.

All this to say that I wouldn't expect the OP to go through the roof and out of control of the manipulator. As long as the war goes on, the manipulator will do anything to depress the OP. Because this control is just another weapon to use in the conflict. We can just witness and try to guess. But I wouldn't rely too much on an explosion of the OP to 150 or 200 USD. It's in the cards of course. But as long as these cards are given in Wall Street, I wouldn't be so hopeful.

Those 300+ M lost are the main (if not the only) reason why TLW went (nearly?) bust. RD's masterpiece.

Puzzling to see oil companies shares almost unchanged in a day like this, with OP close to 100$. Market is apparently betting on a very short-lived OP peak, as per today's Trump put. In my opinion too many are underestimating the implications of this crazy move by Trump and Bibi. For what my opinion is worth...

Probably Trump and his owners in Tel Aviv did not consider that even a destroyed Iran would be easily able to close the strait of Hormuz simply by using few dollars' drones, houti style. This could be a good reason to declare "mission accomplished" as soon as possible, with the ayatollah still in power but in a toothless Iran. In the meantime, OP will probably go up in spite of the usual efforts in Wall Street by the Rescue Team selling tons of oil certificates as soon as the OP approaches 80$.

I thought about re-entering TLW but in the end I opted for building up a position in KOS and minor shale players in the US which could benefit of a sustained OP increase. Of course I missed TLW excellent recent performance, and I can just regret but on the other hand I cannot take the risk of entering at these price levels to find myself trapped in a diluitive capital increase announcement. I don't have enough powder for that.

Today's price action was very peculiar: massive wave of buys at the opening to eat up all the outstanding offer ant then a massive sell by the peak. This really smells of price manipulation but in a direction which LTH like more. Who is doing this, and why? I remain in the opinion that TLW can survive only with a massive recapitalization, otherwise even in a 80+ POO scenario all the profits will end up in interest payments and I'm two years a catastrophe would materialize for both shareholders and bondholders. There's a way out though: issuing several billion shares for a 400-500 M capital increase. This would definitely save the company and pave the way for a real restart. But in order to do that, you need to increase significantly the share price. This would explain the massive participation of debt holders in the refinancing proposal, which would otherwise have been too much of a gamble. Just my take, for the *nothing* it's worth.

Good luck to LTH, enjoy the rally and DYOR.

It was a long way, and overall it was a disaster to be honest. Today I liquidated my last chunk of shares. In the last few days I closed all my positions with an average of about 8.80p. At significant loss, as my average was 16. Regret it or not, I'm really tired of finding justifications for remaining on this train of sorrow that throughout the last three years brought us around displaying an incredible lack of competence, strategy, even common sense by top managers paid fantastic salaries to...destroy companies.

This tragic train of sorrow decided to add a "mockery station" when last Wednesday the SP was kept "under control" and manipulated to the low in a very good day for OP, just to collect more shares from exhausted shareholders: the perfect bear trap prepared by the same "informed ones" who were fully aware of the incoming press release and yesterday launched the final bit of the rally that started at 3.9 p and led to almost triple the SP. The ones who had to know, knew, and accordingly the shares actually went into a rally which landed on the most obvious technical level: the 10-10.50 area where the SP landed after the last illusion of the "Marren collapsed deal" farce. Yesterday that level was reached and there the rally stopped.

Now we are entering into the same "dead-brain" mode as last summer: debt is still there, production has fallen together with reserves. There's no exploration asset left. And the patient is apparently kept alive just to allow his "stakeholders" to keep receiving the patient's retirement income, as he's kept in a coma and well assisted by additional caretakers appointed by...the same stakeholders.

At the end of the day, everyone is left with a choice, whether to pursuit a SP increase linked to the OP, or to invest their money on other companies, possibly with a better future than laying in a bed giving the blood to one's "caretakers". After the latest releases at least the situation is clear, and everyone is left with an informed choice to make: all the necessary information is contained in today's RNS.

Let me just thank all of you for your company throughout this terrible travel. I'll keep good memories of you and especially of those (like xx) who I argued with, but at the end of the day, helped me figure out clearly what was happening, and where that train was leading us.

Good luck all, and maybe see you on other boards. KOS maybe? Or elsewhere. Lost a train, you just get on another one. Hoping it is leading you somewhere better.

GLA

There's two issues especially worrying reading between the lines of the latest updates. One is the loss of rserves: -18m barrels compared to November update and down to only 100m in total. Probably consequence to GNPC share increase starting in 2036. The other ominous issue is the appointment of thee additional "administrators* chosen by creditors. I interrogated Gemini on this:

In the context of the Lock-Up Agreement announced today, the appointment of three new independent directors is a clear sign of a "creditor takeover" of corporate governance. Here is a breakdown of what this means for the company:

1. Loss of Strategic Autonomy

Under the new terms, Tullow’s board must include three directors nominated or approved by the Ad Hoc Group (AHG) of bondholders and Glencore. This is a standard move in distressed debt scenarios to ensure that the company’s management prioritizes debt repayment over shareholder returns or risky investments.

2. The "De Facto" Liquidation Mandate

These directors are likely experts in restructuring and capital allocation. Their primary goal is to oversee the "Cash Flow Waterfall," ensuring that every dollar generated from the Ghanaian fields (Jubilee and TEN) is directed toward:

Interest payments.

Mandatory debt amortization.

Operational maintenance (only what is strictly necessary to keep the oil flowing).

Relief rally was yesterday, and was based on rumors. Only good news is lack of dilution. It's good news in the short term, bad in the long as interest rates are usurary and reserves were not increased even after Ghana extension and 4D exploration. Company has been put on oxygen in an induced coma in order to pay creditors and provide barrels to Glencore. Unless oil trades consistently over 90-100 USD (and in the absence or suicide hedging as it happened in the past), the company looks doomed.

Positive takeaway: no dilution (great news). Negative takeaway: bloodsucking by creditors at very high interest rates Vs further reserves decrease (only 100 m barrels left). Survival mode and kick the can for two more years. Let's see how market takes this

Maybe this board is quiet because many already threw in the towel some time ago (like myself). I've remained with a few shares and today's gains are accordingly almost negligible, but it is what it is. Today's movement can have only two explanations: either short covering due to fears of a conflict in Iran potentially upsetting the shorters ' applecart, or something is brewing and someone knows. Generally speaking 60 million share volume is quite significant for Tullow, but on the other hand it accounts for just 4% of the capitalization. There were no sellers today (as many threw in the towel already, while others are in such a loss that can just stay in, hoping for a miracle) but someone for some reason today was in a rush to accumulate as many shares as possible, or to cover as many short positions as possible. A company worth 150M with 1.3 b debt, owned by institutionals for 65% equivalent cap and traded with miserable volumes... Anything might happen, any moment. I hope this will have a further bump up, and I wish LTH can take the chance to recover their losses somehow. It's a narrow path but today's movement proved that no outcome can be ruled out. As we've been saying for quite a long time now, it's just a gamble. If you can afford gambling, this is a nice place to be.

Xx of course AI has its own limits but the overall picture is quite clear. I read recently that the blocks that TLW disposed in Ivory Coast are so promising that Exxon is rushing to take them over from Ivory Coast government. I recall very well when I was stressing how valuable those blocks potentially were. And yet, rather than drilling an exploration well whose success would have saved the skin of the company, RD preferred to poke holes randomly on Jubilee, in the absence of a decent exploration model. And here we go: there's nothing left to explore, which could potentially upset the applecart and save the shareholders. There's just a flow of oil from a couple of fields in a country which is totally unreliable (euphemism) with a flock of vultures ready to feed on shareholders' bones. This is TLW today, like it or not.

Do we really trust that Jubilee is more promising than what was supposed in the past? Good. Then buy Kosmos, which is burdened with debt, but at least is not being blood-sucked to death by creditors, and still has exploration assets and development plans, like any decent oil company in the world. Like it or not, TLW is a zombie. It could very well raise from the tomb and walk for a few hundreds meters. The SP could very well double or even more from these levels, in response to some kind of an agreement with creditors. Kick the can and get the zombie walk a bit further.

Wish all the best to the residual retail shareholders that have been writing and reading on this forum and sharing with us their miseries. I've always shared my strategies (miseries) here, and never hid anything, and accordingly I'm gonna share my last moves, for what it's worth. I have recently sold most of my shares. It was no easy as even in days like today, with OP spiking up and the whole sector shiny green, TLW volumes were miserable the whole day and bid was almost non existent. I've remained with just a symbolic amount of shares. Generally speaking I couldn't afford purchasing more shares and as in my opinion a dilution is almost inevitable I just decided not to run this risk. I've wasted enough money on this sinkhole of crafty and dumb management to keep trying hoping in a different outcome.

GLA

Debt holders need to be convinced first that 1.3 b can be returned in a few weeks and interests paid as well. And how do you convince them? Unless you put your own skin (read: shares) on the table? let's suppose only 1 b is refinanced by amend and extend: this won't come at an IR lower than 15%. That makes some 500 m in three years only as cost of the debt itself. Reducing the amount of debt is vital. And unless the POO is in the three digit for a relatively long time, there's only one way to reduce the debt. At least, as I know.

I have a concern here, honestly. However we wanna look at it, I can't see a way out of this nightmare which doesn't contemplate a massive dilution of shareholders. A capital increase with the SP at 40 would have been a very easy walk. A totally incompetent and crafty management preferred to pursuit a "strategy" assuming too many things at a time: 80+ POO forever, 100,000 boepd for 3 years and the like. We've seen how basly those assumption aged. Now TLW capitalization is one tenth of its debt and it is impossible to issue "regular" bonds because debt rating is total junk. I honestly struggle to see how we can avoid a dilution here. And unfortunately Ghana is not acting as a partner but rather as a vulture: they don't pay outstanding receivables and wait along the river. However one wanna look at it, it doesn't bode so well.

Just an attempt to provide a recap about how much cash will be in TLW hands in May, when the 1.3 bGBP bond expires. As of now, about 450m cash + FCF produced in the first 5 months of the year (100m?) + 40m due within June 2026 in Kenya. That makes about 600m + 200m receivables from Ghana = 800m ca. This means that *IF* TLW was able to recover outstanding payments from Ghana, there would remain *only* 500 million gap to repay the whole May26 note. Not a big deal for a cpy producing almost 40k boepd. It's all about those 200m due by Ghana. An amend and extend for residual 500m at a higher rate would be a win win outcome for all the parties. But Ghana is a key player here, and nobody knows what Goethe is managing to negotiate with the government and the bondholders. Overall, though, the narrative that "1.8 billion debt is due... tomorrow" is a bit naive as in terms of cash *only* 500-700 million need to be recovered in order to repay the expiring note. Even an increase of Glencore line of credit, and a capital increase or about 100-200m would allow TLW to survive May deadline and restart from the scratch as a truly viable concern.

OK XX noted you're a Seplat supporter for some reason. Honestly, I just don't care as Seplat case is totally irrelevant in this forum. Taking-over rubbish relinquished from international majors escaping Nigeria onshore has nothing to do with managing a giant field offshore in Ghana. It's an interesting business for sure. But totally irrelevant here.