Member Info for Flavius

Added more 18,000 pieces right now. I fully agree that Rahul is managing this company as a private equity operation. I just wanna be part of this operation. In the long term fundamentals will pay off, once the "go-Kamala" trade is gone with the wind (possible with Kamala herself). Patience will pay off.

With the world paralyzed by COVID, twice as more debt than today and a default behind the corner. Total nonsense. I will be waiting for shorters, scammers and manipulators to bring it down to the low 20s when the "for Kamala" OP speculation reaches its climax and then double down.

Up to the US elections the narrative by the media will be aimed at shorting the OP as much as possible in order to pave the way for Harris election. With the usual well-known justifications about "oversupply by non-OPEC countries", "easing tensions in Middle East", "China is lagging", "OPEC is not cutting" etc. etc. But this was somewhat expected.

On the other hand, TLW SP is so ridiculous that any analyisis about fundamentals or technicals is totally useless. The average target price by analysts is some 100% higher than the current evaluation. Current capitalization is worth 10 weeks' revenues: simply hilarious.

Main responsibility for such manipulation is with the BOD which does just nothing to prevent scammers and manipulators from destroying the share price. One umpteenth example is the "presumed" drilling activities started in Gabon for the Sarafina well, as reported in the latest presentation, but totally non-existent elsewhere. Does Dhir have any idea what he is presenting to the shareholders on a quarterly basis?

All in all this share has a "virtual" share price which just reflects the intensity of price manipulation. Let alone the potentially criminal implications of such manipulation, the (very few) retail investors are left with two options: either selling and investing their money elsewhere (possibly in companies with a BoD which is not shiny happy with seeing the SP fall into the bin) or keeping their shares and even further accumulating in the expectation of a re-pricing action that sooner or later will come. How soon, that's the point.

Today both Barclays and Canaccord provided their updates. Anybody knows anything about it?

Thanks Anton, I couldn't find anything more than what you have posted. And yet, this seems to be a "regular" exploration well, led by the existing infrastructure and hence potentially providing very big profit margins.

It's actually puzzling why TLW and Perenco kept such a low profile regarding this well. Maybe they don't have many expectations in terms of PoS? In any case it's worth following this up...

Q2 presentation reads: "currently drilling Sarafina well on Simba licence with quick payback potential"

Anybody following this up? The well is apparently being drilled by Perenco and TLW has a non-negligible interest in that area... An oil discovery is definitely what we need to shake the SP and scare away scammers and SP manipulators.

Hedging is now between a floor of 60USD and a ceiling of 112 USD. Unfortunately the current OP does not allow to enjoy the improvement of the hedging position. EIA is forecasting an average 85-90 USD for the second half of 2024, fingers crossed...

As expected, no reaction from the market in terms of SP movements. It's not a surprise in itself, as SP movements are totally disconnected from profitability of the buainess so you get what you get after the relentless work of "scammers and manipulators". Overall I have the following comments:

- The "bad surprise" of the low-performing well which informed the short speculation by Jeffries is no longer a surprise. On the other hand this was offset by higher-than-expected performances elsewhere, thus confirming the guidance.

- Hopefully the low performance of the well will not lead to an overall decrease of recoverable reserves. This would obviously be a very worrying scenario.

- Profits projected over the year are close to 30p per share which is higher than the current SP.

- I didn't read any reference to exploration wells, probably due to the incident on Simba in Gabon. This is really a shame as drilling exploration wells is the best way to discourage price manipulations by professional scammers.

Overall, no news in this update. Which is good news for rampers, but even better news for shorters: shorting an O&G company which does not engage in exploration is too easy a game not to play it.

We often make reference to the SP 3 years ago, but we tend to forget that at the time TLW was engaged in promising exploration in Suriname and was talking about development opportunities in Guyana. 3 years later, Guyana is out, Uganda is out, Kenya is in the usual "kicking-the can" mode and what is more, no exploration wells are being drilled in a visible future.

With no perspectives of oil discoveries in the future, and with so many eggs in a torn basket like Ghana, we can't complain for beying easy preys for scammers and manipulators. And this is possibly the only catch from this unexciting update.

This was probably posted before? https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-oil-gas-penny-stocks-that-can-double-in-3-quarters At the time TLW was in the 35p , hence that "doubling" would be a "tripling" at current SP. Hereafter the few lines about TLW:

"Tullow Oil (OTCMKTS:TUWOY) is a deeply undervalued oil & gas penny stock to buy for multibagger returns. The company has oil & gas exploration activity in Africa. Further, Tullow is focused on West and East Africa resources, where the potential opportunity is for more than 30 billion barrels of oil. The company’s net 2P reserves and 2C resources are 900 million barrels of oil equivalent.

From a financial perspective, there are two points to note. First, Tullow reported $250 million in net debt reduction for 2023. Further, the company is on track to deliver $800 million in free cash flows from 2023 to 2025. The company aims to reduce net debt by $700 million by 2025. Credit metrics will, therefore, continue to improve. This is important as Tullow has 200mmboe in 2P reserves and 700mmboe in 2C resources. Significant exploration expense is likely to boost production in the next few years. The company has ample financial flexibility.

On Penny Stocks and Low-Volume Stocks: With only the rarest exceptions, InvestorPlace does not publish commentary about companies that have a market cap of less than $100 million or trade less than 100,000 shares each day. That’s because these “penny stocks” are frequently the playground for scam artists and market manipulators (...)"

I personally agree 100% with this brief outlook, including the statement about scam artists and manipulators. We see them very well in actions in days like this, were very small selling positions are continuosly opened with the sole purpose of feeding the SP collapse. They won't have me. I'm ready to further increase my position. I can wait.

Same price levels as in 2020/2021 covid mayhem, when the company was virtually broke. With average OP of 80$ and debt reduction ongoing full-steam, this share is worth just peanuts. Today the 10y GILT popped up by 15 bp, and accordingly TLW was sold. Strangely enough, a much bigger movement of the GILT rates lower in the past days was happily ignored. Every "news" is utilized only to the purpose of destroying the SP. It's an easy game, as the Board is totally passive and spends less-than-zero effort to try to support the SP. Sometimes it looks like this board is just liquidating the company for the sake of making debt-holders happy. Jeffries is obviously very happy. The (residual) shareholders, much less.

Interest rates falling, finally. 10y note below 4%, finally. Even in a terrible trading day like this, there's some silver lining: cost of refinancing debt is increasingly smaller, and this for TLW is great news. At the end of the day, OP is still close to 80$. Fundamentals keep improving. Much better times (and much higher SP) will come for the ones who don't give up.

It's unfortunately well believable considering how close are the relationhips between the USA and Kenya, and how active are their NGOs down there. Imposing "green agendas" to developing countries is a recipe for disaster. They're just adding fuel to the fire, more unrest to come in the future.

The issue here is always the same: there is no money to deliver the Project. TLW capitalizes 450 MM, a tiny fraction of the Capex needed for this Project. Only possibility is a takeover of TLW by a bigger fish interested for some reason in investing in Kenya but ... Let's be honest: no any sensible oil company today is willing to invest in Ghana, after the sh*tshow of the tax claims which led the majors to rush out of the country and TLW to struggle with endless disputes. No one would dare take TLW over considering the risks associated with investing money in a country like Ghana. This leaves TLW with very few options. Only way out is just sit down by the river and wait for the cash flow to help deleveraging, fingers crossed the OP does not crash as per the Democrats' agenda in the US. Hard times.

The real issue here is that after the replacement of Biden with Kamala, WS has accordingly started their personal electoral campaign (for the democrats, it goes without saying). Hence, hammering the OP is a key point od their agenda from now to November. Storage levels in the US are at an historically extremely low level,hence shorters need to find reasons somewhere else for fuelling the price drop: they found "China" and they are spinning the narrative as they like. Unfortunately this is the plan up to November. Wonder where the SP will be by that time, considering current levels being already ridiculously low.

Yes.

There is no significant hedging any more.

Oil Price is relevant for Tullow SP only when it falls down...

Opportunistic buyers which popped up at 30p support level are running away after Kenya headlines.

All in all, we are talking about an oil field TLW had no money to develop, located in a country which is a cesshole of corruption, with an unstable political environment, subject to pressures from green NGOs and contended by USA, Russia and China for geopolitical reasons. Zero chance that field would be delevoped in the (not-so)near future.

I just wonder if the Kenyan Gvt is using the argument of "gaps" in the FDP to force TLW out and negotiate a brand-new agreeent with another O&G major.

A "hammer" with big volumes on a key support level is a strong buy signal. Especially considering that volumes exploded in the last couple of hours.

Let's suppose TLW enters into a "end-of-life" mode: i.e. no any investment whatsoever in additional production or production optimization other than what has been planned so far. And just keep producing from the existing assets accepting the production decline till expiry of relevant licences. Let's suppose that FCF is used to further reduce the debt to zero and then accumulated as cash with the purpose of buying back the company and delist it. My expectation is that the debt could be brought down to zero in a couple of years and after then cash would be piled up in the hundreds of millions every year. My guess is the "residual value" of this share would be easily above 1.5 billion GBP, i.e. the equivalent of a 100 SP. In the absence or news or short term catalysts the shorters (Jeffries' friends) have an easy life. But the tide will turn. I will further accumulate in this SP area. Increasing volumes suggest that other players are doing that. Patience will pay off.