Member Info for Flavius

They can play with this share as much as they like, with these ridiculously low volumes. But I can read the graphs and the numbers: this market is extremely tight for the season. And even big names like Standard Chartered and Citigroup are talking 100+$ oil as shorters and algo keep playing their speculative shorts to please the US administration and their...employers. But at the end of the day, supply and demand make the market, end of the story. Let them play. I sleep well, keep my shares there and wait for the corpses of the shorters by the river side. Smiling.

The total lack of reaction from the Board in front of this manipulation can be explained only with collusion. Not a single word has ever been spent regarding the undervaluation of this stock, not a single word to react to ridiculous analyses aimed only at depressing the SP. This silence and lack of reaction de facto legitimizes such short manipulation. Capitalization is 400 milion GBP, the same as in April 2020 when this company was considered broke. It is the equivalent of the revenues from less tha 4 months' operations, just ridiculous. A buyback plan of 100 million GBP is peanuts if the storytelling about the 800m free cash flow is true. What are they waiting for? What is holding them from protecting the interests of their own shareholders?

Volumes are simply ridiculous, and yet there is always some additional bunch of shares being sold at a slightly lower price than few minutes before. It clearly smells of manipulation. Which is so easy, considering that in a trading day the equivalent of 300k GBP have been exchanged: pennystock volumes indeed. And yet, it would be easy for the CEO to upset the applecart: just announcing a buyback plan, even just for a few tens of million GBP worth, with the aim of protecting their shareholders. Just to send the message that this sort of manipulation will face a reaction, and the board cares of their shareholders. Clearly they don't give a damn about their shareholders.

It Is manipulated, right, we know it. But the same applies today to other shares (see e quest), typically small caps oil and gas are shorted more than anything else, these days. BUT if even just half of what I've read in recent reports (es: Standard Chartered) about the oil and gas REAL demand-supply dynamics is true, then we can calmly wait for the moment when OP spikes above 100$. It could just be a few weeks away, when spring comes and oil demand increases with the driving season. And then, the deserved reward for the shorters will come. And for us as well.

PS I've read that TLW relinquished some 15% of Simba block to increasing the interest in other promising blocks in Gabon, but kept a significant 40% in Simba... I wonder if there is a spud-in date?

Anyone knows anything about the exploration well planned by Perenco in 2024 in subject (already producing) block? Considering Tullow interest is very high (some 55% if I'm not mistaken) a discovery could provide the boost we need...

Supercooper I think behind some recent "analyses" lays the general expectation that oil price will be weak in 2024. Not necessarily will this guess be right, and should OP be higher than 80$-85$ even a "sitting-back" approach for most of the year would be rewarded. Unfortunately, in the absence of any news or surprises, we're just left hostages of OP and interest rates fluctuations.

Just to add more "context" :

** Brokerage Stifel cuts rating on TLW to "sell" from "hold"; slashes target price to 31p from 37p

** Stifel cuts its production and cash flow forecast for Tullow, citing lower production more than offsetting lower capex

** Brokerage says production hurt by faster-than-expected declines at both TEN field offshore Ghana and in non-operated portfolio

I honestly cannot understand the rational behind "faster-than-expected-declines" narrative where all the production numbers are fully in line with previous forecast. Reading tea leaves maybe?

This share is traded like a penny stock, and accordingly manipulated to the needs of the (very few) big hands trading it. It's always the usual game: an "analyst" lowers the TP and accordingly the SP is thrashed. The game is very easy because of the lack of PI and ridiculous volumes accordingly. It's like stealing candies from babies (and us in the role of the babies, it goes without saying).

Only way out is a buyback plan, or release significant dividends. More financial stability is needed for such plans to be implemented. Next year maybe, if oil price doesn't fall off a cliff. In the meantime, no investments, no new exploration wells. It's difficult to attract new investors as long as you're on cow-milking mode.

A delayed production due to issues with injection wells might just turn out to be a good news. Hedging for 2024 is significantly lower than in 2023 and accordingly it is more convenient to move some production into 2024 as long as the OP is higher than 75$. I definitely agree with the importance of the look ahead rather than watching in the rearview mirror

There are only some possible reasons for this downward movement of the SP:

1) Shorters are piling up additional positions to scare the rest of the 'cattle' out of the playground. Low trading volumes help manipulating the SP with small effort.

2) Statistics: most updates were followed by big drops in the SP: risk mitigation strategy accordingly.

3) Algos are selling highly indebted companies in a general context of persistingly high interest rates, irrespective of their business fundamentals.

4) Insiders are selling in anticipation of a disappointing update after tomorrow. This could explain the persisting selling pressure on a daily basis even in a general context of low trading volumes.

IMHO it's a combination of 1-to-3. No.4 is the black swan that we just hope won't materialize after tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

Some weeks ago, as a reason for shorting Jeffries made the point that now the debt is (more or less) sorted, you should look elsewhere (i.e. disappointing production results, lack of investments, no oil discoveries and-the-like). And yet, this share is more and more behaving like long-duration bond: as interest rates go up, it is smashed.

There is an even stronger correlation with interest rates than before the agreement with Glencore and the reduction of the debt. The "rationale" is that in any case that debt will have to be refinanced and accordingly if interest rates remain high for longer... refinancing will be more painful accordingly.

In a way or in another, there is always a reason for selling this share apparently.

In this parallel universe where "you need to sell oil because the economy is still to good and hence interest rates cannot go down quickly enough thus causing a recession and hence a drop in oil price", you can just do one thing to get rid of all this BS: buying oil companies. I've just increased my position by some more 15,000 shares. I'm not interested in this fake narrative: OP is gonna get higher, and TLW as well. Patience will pay.

"Incentivized by below $80 a barrel Brent oil prices, Chinese refiners are looking to import more crude to build up stocks at relatively low prices early this year, expecting strong demand for fuels in the latter part of 2024, analysts and trading sources told Reuters" source: oilprice.com.

Summarising, as speculative positions on Oil are extra-short (politically driven by US Administration to keep the OP low), commercials are moving in the opposite direction. Sooner or later reality will step in, and the oil price will move up, whatever the efforts by politically-driven commodity traders.

Translation: "If the financial risk does no longer justify our shorts, then we will find another reason for shorting it".

Adjusted numbers fed to subservient media to support the short narrative: they imported 9 million more barrels of oil in the week and then they cry wolf because stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels.

Unfortunately that's the real point: this share is too easy to manipulate. Worth just 460 M and sitting over a pile of debt of nearly 2 B. Wheter it's worth 300 M or 600 M it doesn't actually make much difference in terms of Debt-to-Capital Ratio. But it does make a big difference for desperate shareholders like us.

Technical analysis, "lines on a diagram" as someone said, is therefore the only playground for the moment. And in fact, when the SP got close to 40p, it was just too easy a game for Jeffries to call the umpteenth 40p top by issuing that rubbish analysis with great timing.

Last time I've seen an "analyst" posting a frankly ridiculous target price for a share was just... one month ago: at the time the subject beautiful mind set a TP of 9 euros for Air France KLM (at the time the share price was around 11). Just three days later Air France raised its medium-term outlook and the share price exploded higher some 30% in few trading sessions up to 14 euros.

Sometimes ridiculous TP are set by "analysts" just to make some space for bigger gains in the opposite direction, as the scared cattle runs off the cliff while the beautiful people buy cheaper. Just hope it will be the same for TLW as well.

-13% in three days since...Jeffries. They got what they wanted.

Apparently in Jeffries they have discovered that TLW uses revenues to deleverage and this prevents reinvestment in "growth". Wow. How much is this analyst paid to make such revelations? Yesterday (when survival was at stake) this share was more worth than today the debt is no longer an issue? Speechless.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/jefferies-downgrades-ratings-for-tullow-oil-and-enquest-kl7v874vaat8l6u.html