Member Info for Flavius

There is a difference with the last time oil price hit 100$ though: now Tullow production is significantly less hedged. Which simply means...more income. Accordingly 60p are an easy target provided oil keeps skyrocketing.

We all know that Tullow's weak link is debt. Highly indebted companies are paying a very high price on the stock market due to the currently high interest rates. This could be a further major driver in the share price increase in the future: as the interest rates decrease (we are relistically reaching the peak rates), the share price would accordingly go up as the debt would be perceived as less of an issue. Interest rates increase was actually a major factor in the share price drop in the last one year. Accordingly, things can only get better, also from this point of view.

You just missed the relevant posts, like you missed the best trading opportunities, it must be your trademark.

- 5 August 2022 "Good Bye" - SP 47,60

- 31 May 2023 "In again" - SP 25.00

Keep losing, sore loser.

Not my case, I left in the 40s and came back in the 20s. It's all in my previous posts. It is called "trading". Keep watching the past and missing the present, and you'll always be a sore loser.

The main difference is my ASP is now 26 p and that price would make a 100% gain for me. And those 50-60 p are a reliable target JUST because that's where we were one year ago.

Obviously happy for the recent gains. And yet, I think we could be facing only the beginning of a strong trend upwards. Shorters rushing to close their positions probably contributed to the recent spikes, but other good news is probably coming soon.

Strategic reserves in the US keep depleting, hitting now the lowest levels in 40 years. Releasing those reserves contributed to keep oil prices at the current levels in spite of increasing supply risks and market constraints. Those reserves will need to be rebuilt in the future, and the oil price is starting to move accordingly. It is not unrealistic to expect three-digit oil prices in the near future. And in the meantime Tullow is better positioned to make richer profits due to the decrease in hedged production.

50-60 p is definitely a realistic target price and I wouldn't sell any share before then.

All the last movements up are after the announcement of the tender offer and recent updates about the outcome. There's no real news apart for that, including of course Kenya. This share definitely needs a decent trigger, either a breaking news on Kenya or some positive newsflow in the exploration activities. I'm not aware though of any exploration well being drilled in the near future...

PS: I'm back in with 100k shares, ready to increase it further as signs of strength show up in the next future.

back in august 2022 i sold my shares for 49p after the umpteenth duster. i recall at the time i was insulted on this same chat, called names and accused of conspiracy, just for highlighting that with such a miserable exploration record the company looked doomed to a "survival mode", just a cash machine due to pay back its debt to the creditors. i haven't changed my mind, but at the same time this stock is cleary undervalued, worth probably less than the value of its own assets.

considering the hedging just stepped down in may 2023, and realistically the oil price is going up under the pressure of an increasing demand and a sc**** offer after a decade pf underinvestment in exploration and production worldwide, 50p are quite a realistic target and it's a shame not to be in at this price. successful exploration is on the other hand necessary to target higher levels than that. but in the meantime an opportunistic approach is definitely worth the risk.

Anton, I did not just sell "on a down day". I have been in for a very long time. I got my satisfactions, even bought a chunk of shares for 9 pence. Made my decent gains. This is not just a "bad day". This is the umpteenth exploration disaster, and the value of the company has been hit accordingly. I cannot honestly see a decent catalyst for a share price increase now. I may be right or wrong, who knows. But that's enough for me. Live in hope, die in despair. I've lived in hope enough.

I have been holding this share for the last two years only in the hope that a decent discovery would be made, some time, sooner or later. And instead, two dusters in a row: Suriname and Guyana. With the same embarrassing press releases in both cases: "ladies and gentlemen, we encountered a very good reservoir but"... but no hydrocarbons in Suriname and... water in Guyana. In the meantime, Orange basin in Namibia, one of the most promising exploration assets, was relinquished just days before Total made Venus-1 discoveries: 3 billion barrels in place, just a few miles away from there.

Honestly it seems that Tullow exploration department is run by Wile E. Coyote and Duffy Duck, as top management seems to be focused only on squeezing like a lemon the assets in Ghana, and nothing more than that. An oil company that does not make new discoveries is doomed. I sold my shares this morning, and I'm out. No regrets. Wish all the best to all of you guys.

I still struggle to understand the point of people justifying the hedging strategy in light of what was happening two years ago. No any investor can be interested in what happened yesterday, one year ago or ten years back. The fact remains that Tullow has 75% of its production hedged at 75$ in a moment where oil price is well over 100$. And this translates into a projected loss of several hundreds of millions $ in derivatives by the end of 2022. End of the story. Whatever the environment which inspired this decision two years ago, why should an investor buy shares of a CPY which deliberately burns hundreds of millions in the fireplace?

Let's just try walking in the shoes of an "average" investor who doesn't know anything about the past of this unfortunate share, or simply is not interested in it. Well, with oil at 130$ you bump into an oil Company which boasts a 75$ hedging up to 2024 and whose management is happy because "by the end of the hedging program implementation (last day maybe?)" they managed to do a very good business hedging at 96$, thus increasing the overall hedging average up to a fantastic 76$. Well, what would you do? I'd watch somewhere else, where I can actually monetize this spike in the oil price. Buying Tullow today is maybe a good trading in the extra-long term. In the short term, it's just laughable.

Good reaction today, short covering possibly? Maybe someone is starting to wonder whether it is really such a good choice keep shorting this stock under the current geopolitical scenario (and demand/supply dynamics overall). One more way to discourage shorters? Announcing a buyback plan. In order not to scare lenders, the buyback plan would be linked to the oil price. It would be less risky than announcing a dividend (and possibly cancelling it under a deteriorating scenario) and it would definitely discourage shorters. And encourage shareholders, it goes without saying, as the share price would benefit accordingly.

Fine to me TLW has a plan. But it's somewhat a miserable plan in a super-bullish market like this one. My point is that we don't have to expect that this share outperforms for the moment. I will still keep it in the hope that something good happens in the future. Hopefully...who lives in hope won't die in despair.

In this environment where oil and gas companies have been demonized by the ESG lobbies for the last few years, oil companies have found a way out: decreasing CAPEX, focus on production and reward their shareholders with massive dividends. By this doing, also the "big boys" had to pick them up and include them in their portfolios due to the rich returns that they actually provide. Tullow? Well, it did almost the same: lower CAPEX, focus on production...but... no dividends due to the debt issue.

With this premise, it cannot come as a big surprise that the average investor prefers to pick Chevron or Conoco or Total rather than a small cap with a high debt, zero dividend, production hedged in a high-price scenario and no perspectives of significant discoveries / production increase in the near future. Tullow has been a bet for many of us: we bought it low hoping for a big boom that never happened. It's just about accepting reality for what it is.

Honestly I share the frustration of many shareholders for a share price which stubbornly refuses to reflect the oil price. OK, the unfortunate hedging strategy is one of the reasons. But I wouldn't forget also to mention that it is legitimate for the investors to expect from an "E&P Company" that it makes occasionally a decent oil discovery somewhere, somehow, once in a while. A commercial discovery. For the last two years Tullow management has only been talking about debt management, focus on production, and then liquidation of assets, farm-outs. Only one well drilled: a duster. Whit such an impressive record in terms of reserve-replacement, what should we expect? That it skyrockets to 200 because of a couple of thousands more barrels produced in Ghana (and hedged, by the way)?

Exactly... Considering 75% of production is hedged, the remaining 25% is actually earning 92$/bbl, which adds some 3.5 $ in terms of average selling price on the overall production (i.e. 81.5 USD) ... In case of oil price at 100$/bbl the average selling price would be about 83.5 USD and so on... Of course hedging acts as a cap on revenues as oil price exceeds the ceiling, but however small, there is still a positive effect in oil price increase.

It's definitely not an exciting moment for TLW shareholders. And TLW's management is definitely not...inspiring these days. There is nothing less inspiring than an oil company that only talks debt and infilling programs. Infilling by definition is not adding any reserves to the 2P already priced in. An oil company cannot survive in the long term if it doesn't explore, discover and develop new assets in order to replace the depleting reserves. Difficult for an investor to see value in the long term if management only talks debt and production.

On the other hand in a high-price scenario as the current one, for an indebted company increasing production is of vital importance: it allows decreasing the debt burden more quickly and laying accordingly the basis for future investments. Not exciting, then, but definitely the right thing to do at this moment. Need to be patient. Very patient.

Sorry what is unbelievable here? I have been following but never registered until today. I'm in since March 2020 with significant gain (130%). I had some expectations from the last well in Suriname and I'm disappointed as many others. The initial reaction to the duster was...surprising. But the very simple point is: here we are begging for higher oil price and good news from the debt standpoint. But good news from exploration? That would really be a game changer.

Anyways if a post from a just-registered guy is a reason for conspiracy and treason accusations, well, I'll go back to where I've come from. No regrets, good luck all!