Member Info for Flashy500

True - that's these 3 drills are why the probability is in MATDs favour to get at least one of them. Those following are a bit too far ahead I think to influence the SP in the short term .

I don't understand this: If a drill with a larger likelihood of failure comes up dry before a high COS well (Heron), then that risk is removed from the price - no one in their right mind would sell if Red Deer fails a week before Heron's expected results. On the other hand, if Heron fails first (and that's the safe one), then people are looking at a falling SP and what is essentially a low chance of success. Now, if Red Deer comes off first and comes off as we all hope it does, then Heron becomes the icing. It's essentially a probability tree: and MATD are looking like a favourable bet here with odds of a strike in their favour in the first 3. I'm hoping they all come off and we can have a £1 party before Xmas! All my own thoughts of course, and happy to debate. Cheers.

Hi Mike. I disagree with that time line: For me it's best if Red Deer comes through a few days before Heron - Red Deer is more risky than Heron (it's more that likely it'll fail). But if that comes true, and Red Deer doesn't work out, then with Heron around the corner the SP should still have some sticking power.

It's my claim to fame for today - I called this one a few hours ago! Still think end of this week earliest for real news. But I won't be selling anything from now until we get drill results. Good luck all! (Hope your lunch wasn't spoiled!)

I think toward the end of this week is more likely. But I've held here over the last week's games and I certainly . . . wait for it . . . wouldn't want to be out over this coming weekend!

Next RNS will be 'price monitoring extension' probably.

Petro China need it to work in truth - they have a lot of infrastructure up there that isn't being used at full capacity. This was in Mike Buck's interview a while back. So PC would likely be very interested in getting their hands on it in some sort of shared deal.

There is a chance that Red Deer could come off sooner than Heron - which is to our advantage really. Interesting month ahead!

Good find - thanks for that. Listening now.

I hope you are right - but I would also expect a bit of clarity on the situation - I don't the previous RNS gave enough information. I'm still holding but my blood pressure is going up by the hour! Anyone know where I can buy Voodoo Dolls of oil execs? (Think I might need a bigger house to store all the ones who have 'fumbled' since my AIM adventure began back in 2007/8).

The problem is we don't know what it's all about do we? If it was a signature then they probably would not have had to stop the drill. Like others on here, I want a more coherent update soon. 'Destructive ambiguity is not helpful.

...Didn't they also say that only 'the brave die young?' Hmmm....think I'm too old for that anyway so may as well saddle up!

Where did '100 days' come from? Cheers.

There is now a chance that Red Deer could be drilled to TD BEFORE Heron. That changes this in a good way for us, provided Heron comes back on line in the next fortnight, as no one will sell before Heron reaches TD, even if Red Deer is a duster. Interesting times.

This is nothing short for a disaster for Matd, alas. Heron was the jewel in the crown that should have underpinned the SP and provided working capital to go forward, with the upcoming drills being potentially transformational but less likely to come off. I'm not sure how quickly this can be sorted either - whilst I sincerely hope we get a follow up RNS this week saying 'all is well' I'm just not convinced that will be the case. I really hope I'm wrong but we'll see. I'm still in here and haven't sold today but certainly this has deflated my Monday morning.

I agree. Way too early for an oil find - though I would love it if so! We might not see spud RNS tomorrow - things like this can easily get put back a few days - fingers crossed we will but just don't want all the naysayers preaching the world's end if it doesn't come tomorrow. Holding now until end of August. Cheers.

Just wish I'd held for a few more days to get back in. Still, increased my holding by about 4% and still waiting for end of august as the main driver.

Hopefully they will buy MATD as they have a load of infrastructure up there that needs to be used.

Back in again now - added enough shares to get me over a certain holding which is what I wanted. Hopefully it will flatten a bit now and then move on up after the next spud news which will prob be the end of this week / early next. Cheers.

Yes it can. I had a re-entry of 7.75 but still not back in yet. Will watch over the next few hours. Cheers.