RE: Worst case scenario28 Mar 2020 15:57
I think a more important question isn't about the cash position of GGP per say but also the position of Newcrest itself. The presentation they did to the Montreal Global Metals and Mining Conference last month seemed to indicate that their fundamentals were very strong. For me, the absolute worse case scenario is that something negatively impacts Newcrest (Chinese or general demand collapse, sudden change in currency value leaves them vulnerable, rise in protectionism hinders exports and trade etc etc) which alters their attitude and timetable with us. Now, I DON'T think that will happen in any way, and in fact macro economics is helping us at teh moment: price of gold up (though I don't think that really affects our SP as we don't as yet have any to sell to the market - it's still got to be extracted), and also the low price of oil thanks to the Saudia-Russia spat, which means our margins for mining / exploration / extraction will be better as energy costs lower. I do think that Australia will increase lockdown in the next fortnight however. What that means for isolated miners like GGP is uncertain, as they might be allowed to carry on.