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I gave that post a rec Touk, can't argue with that!

The fear of the mega-RNS is strong on this one

Oh yes sorry, type 3: Bored old codgers with weird obsessions

Population: 1

It's more that this is like a zoo and you two are some animals I want to poke with a stick to see what happens.

But it's pretty boring actually.

It's all about money, but

For some it is because they're invested and excited (and maybe overly optimistic) about the chances of success

For others it is clearly because they need the stock to fail for shorting/SB reasons

The funny/sad part is that the latter have zero impact on the SP but seem to waste a lot of their time on it.

It's all on the table. I trust that the BoD know that they can't have a placing at these levels, so they must have another plan.

You clearly have a gambling problem in spreadbetting, I suggest you seek help.

I am saying there won't be a raise

You're saying there will be a raise

Neither of us know

See how easy this FUD game is!

BoD know that a raise at this SP would be suicidal.

Another form of cash inflow must be in the pipe.

Trust the process.

Why do my posts keep getting deleted by the way?

Happened last time I interacted with Wyn too.

I was reasonable and wasn't abusive

What can I say Opti, I couldn't help but engage :D

I don't really care as I'm staying long and all this FUD is just spreadbettors gambling

As long as BOD have a plan to get SP up before any future placing

You raise some good points in there Wyn. I'm a LTH but always like to read the bear case to check I'm comfortable staying long. In terms of your points raised, I think

1. The move to SGC is because it doesn't need to show improved efficacy, as there is no standard of care. To gain approval for other indications, based on safety profile alone, would have required much larger trials, beyond any budget Avacta currently have. AVA6000 vs Standard Dox appears to show some efficacy improvements, but it's not the route to pursue at this stage. SGC gives a route to a commercially viable and fda approved product.

2. Data could definitely be a point of contention. Limited availability for AVA6103, but early signs are VERY promising, which leads on to point 3...

3. My biggest worry, going back nearly 2 years when I started pumping money into this, was the risk of getting to commercial terms with a 3rd party. It's so fecking complicated and there are numerous ways to package this up. All against a backdrop of a dwindling cash runway. Avct has a potentially blockbuster platform here, worth multi-Bns, but at what point does that tip into the right risk/reward profile for BP? That is hopefully a question which gets addressed soon, but is the biggest risk here for me.

4. Risk of obsolescence is real, but I've not heard of anything, even from a promising ideas perspective that makes this near/mid-term risk. This will always be a risk in bio-tech, but given timelines and current horizon scanning I don't think it factors.

So, I don't think "we all agree BP is not interested presently". I am sure there is interest. Nobody here knows what has or hasn't been going on behind closed doors. Simon Bennett gets a lot of stick, but can't have been sitting there doing nothing all this time.

There are certainly some hurdles to jump and cash to find, for some of the reasons you have stated, but I remain confident this comes good.

Let's be honest, if there was anything hugely game changing in these AACR presentations the SP would already be on the up.

The market always knows.

But you're ok with the original post, which is completely baseless.

Pick on post #2 instead.

Super logic you've got there.

Wyndrum - the point that Ben makes undermines Viking's point, that the drug will be obsolete. $1.8bn implies a market is there.

You have introduced a completely different point. I usually just lurk here, but you're so tiresome.

Go outside and enjoy the sun.

Wyn, for someone who could [sic] care less about AVCT, you sure seem to waste a looot of time talking about it.

If you're here to protect people from a bad investment, you've diluted your message.

If you're here as pure FUD, you've simply at the more annoying end of that spectrum.

The volume of trades don't look large enough for a leaked placement?

This is just a thin orderbook and some market panic.......hopefully

With your approach nobody would invest in anything.

Solid work Kenny :)

I should have said difficulty in 'maximising' commercial value. I am sure it is 'easy' to get a licence deal but can avct net deals that match the required value. This isn't a drug, it's a platform that works with other drugs, owned by different BPs.

I have read up on the science and fully bought in, just struggling to follow the money here a bit (my DD only goes so far :) )

The OP's question is one I've been trying to wrap my head around too and agree with responses above.

The other angle which I have been pondering is whether this is just really difficult to commercialise?

I work pretty complex non-phama commercial deals for a job, but they pale into insignificance for complexity compared with what I imagine are the avenues here. There is also a threat to big pharma revenues which could play out here?

I am pretty heavily invested in AVCT and trying to rid the bear cases from my head!

Tygra

You're adding in requirements that aren't stated in the Offtake RNS. It's pretty clear that PREM need to provide 1k tonnes (+/-10%) by the end of Nov at the requisite grade. If they fail to deliver in that month it is a £1.5m cash settlement. They don't talk about proof of grade before shipping, even though that's implicit.

However you read it, I do agree we holders should be nervous as I don't trust GR one bit.

Settlement is 1,000 tonnes per month, commencing 1st Nov. Prem have until the end of Nov to have shipped at least 1000 tonnes of spod to Canmax. There will be an RNS in November, but it's not necessarily a 1st Nov deadline.