Member Info for fatprofits

The GKN pension deficit is almost gone from my reading.

Lots of share prices were higher pre COVID, particularly in this sector.

Mro was available well under £1 a share last year.

If you don't like it you can always consider selling, simples.

I expect a further disposal next year, with a fair wind.

* on 20 X

hold on a sec, GSK pharma side on a PE of 20 c ?,

dream on, unless there is a transformative pipeline developments.

Take a look at what most of the sector trades on, it is well under 20x.

On the consumer spin off, that multiple is possible with a fair wind.

Thanks for the views guys.

it has been mentioned elsewhere, but no one can seem to quantify what
% of PI revenue office based business travel represented pre pandemic.

Analysts would have access to this in their modelling, but much harder for us
to get this level of information.

n/m

konan, if you consider there has been a secular shift in business and
associated travel requirements, that could represent a large chunk of revenue
for premier Inn given their regional presence?.

How important in business travel to the Premier Inn business?.

That's the question I would be asking fwiw, particularly if we are looking
at a degree of secular change...

Are selling off.

Look at WTB, JDW etc..

We have heard about herd immunity for over 12 months now,
look at Brazil, little social distancing, mask wearing, in other words
the virus has been allowed to run riot and they are still reporting
nearly 50,000 new cases a day - and that will be a gross underestimate
due to lack of testing.

Given the potential for reinfection, vaccines are our best hope.
There will hopefully be antivirals in tablet form available next year
as an adjunct - prescribed on developing certain symptoms.

Just to clarify when I mentioned 20-23 Euro that is on the
basis RYA can approach 2bn on pre tax.

If they can and when, is well beyond my pay grade, particularly as
covid is highly unpredictable.

Will this ever recover to pre COVID levels?,

this is an important market segment for Premier Inn.

Perhaps a slight misunderstanding or unrealistic expectations on the COVID vaccines.

What they hopefully do is prevent either very severe illness requiring hospitalisation,
or prevents deaths - in the vast majority of cases.

That is how I would look at it and my other half works in Frontline healthcare.

Poker, In the UK the monthly cost of PrEP is about £35 on generic.

When Truvada was first introduced in the US it sold at well over £10,000

on a annual basis, from memory.

I just don't see how sexual health clinics, which are underfunded in many

regions as it is, would either have the time or resources to favour an injectable.

with a very cheap and easy to taken proven tablet form of PrEP available.

And to my mind, rightly or wrongly, it casts doubt on their wider estimates going forward.

May be that is too cautious a view, only time will tell.

12 visits to a healthcare professional each year, the commercial case is even weaker than I thought

This is commercial nonsense.

£2 BN a year in peak sales my a.se, which is where they need to
inject, it looks like one injection in to each buttock multiplied by 12
equals 24 injections a year, instead of taking a tablet that takes about 3 seconds
a day.

When I mentioned it was la la land that was being kind imv.

Would hope their other forecasts are of better quality than this.

Not the most tech literate but still cannot find a reply option for Wednesday's presentation

on the IR site, or a transcript. Had hoped to watch the end of day Q&A.

In respect of injectable PrEP I know people who work in sexual health
and they do not see it as viable due to the costs involved to
healthcare systems - appointments every two months where a nurse
or Dr needs to administer. Remember it's competing against a once
daily oral PrEPin tablet form that can be on a repeat prescription.

I've seen comments from GSK saying ...it reduces the stigma of
daily medication - I just don't buy that for the vast, vast majority
of that patient population.

Now PrEPin a long acting tablet form is a completely different
ballgame and from memory that is currently in clinic - would
need to double check the details.

In terms of GSK, I added to my holding before the close as mentioned.

May be a gap fill to the pre RNS level?, but can't call that one tbh.

My partner also works in frontline healthcare as previously mentioned,

very fortunate to be come out of COVID uncathed - at least to this point.

Good fortune.

and obvs these are just estimates - injectable PrEP will Not be a blockbuster,

that's la la Land stuff imv.

Along acting PrEP in tablet form, yes that would be highly attractive.

Wider inflation Not accounted for is my understanding.

So 3% RPI would be in real terms 2%, however remember they

have guided for significant multi year margin improvement which

is a factor behind the higher forecast in operating growth % .

Added a small amount before the close.

Potential Gap fill on the pre RNS sp?,

TA not my area though.

plus investment in the pipeline taking longer to materialise than anticipated...

Think that's slightly harsh, but yes there have been multiple oncology pipeline
failures this year.

Did not listen to the Q and A, hopefully a transcript available at some point.

From a short term market trading perspective watch developments in the Delta Plus variant,

it may possibly lead to the healthcare sector getting some more support.

GSK do not own all of the CH division , it's a JV,

they are the majority owner yes.

was there any doubt about the spin off in 2022?

not that I was aware of, thought it was absolutely odd on

as was the dividend cut and offloading a large amount of debt to CH.

My cat could have called this one.