Member Info for extrader

Hi all,

Behind FT paywall, article on Ghana and its infrastructure dealings with China.

It's struck a ( controversial) $2bn barter deal with a Chinese state-owned construction company to build roads and bridges as well as housing, hospitals and schools. It will be paid back in refined bauxite to be produced by a yet-to-be-commissioned refinery.
Ghana - like C-B - has debt issues, so the deal has been structured as a loan to the Chinese contractor, not Ghana, keeping it off the books.
Despite Washington concerns re China's 'debt trap diplomacy' , the IMF has apparently given its cautious, provisional blessing.

There are some reservations, because in barter deals it is difficult to establish the correct price for the goods being traded.That, of course, might suit the powers-that-be.

Interesting read-across for ZIOP, maybe.

ATB

Hi all,

AM still (0628 UK time) still on manoeuvres, tracking shows high speed intervals (currently 8.8 knots, from 9.2), shadowed by Rizwan (new description "SCORT by AM" sic) about 3 Km behind her.

ATB

Hi simonthezealot,

The top 3 shareholders are
- Guava (Elphick) with 28.34 % , after the recent 2.99% transfer;
- Salamanca ((Haworth) with 4.8%; and
- Keith Everitt with 6.01%
Total 39.2%.

There's no evidence that the first 2 have been doing any mopping up. Their holdings haven't changed for a long time.

Everitt first disclosed (3.22%) on 2 July, last purchases up to 10p; then to 4.09% on 25 July, last purchases up to 12.5p; and he crossed 6.01% on 24 Aug, last purchases up to 20p (approx.). All these prices approx. , may be a bit lower with a worked order.

To cross to 7%, he'd have to buy approx. 2.8 million shares.

He's been able to pick these up at below 20p (now 13.5p) for the last 4 weeks, if he wanted. We've seen enough volume in that time, but no RNS, so I don't think he's been mopping up, either.
He's probaby now, like the rest of us (only richer), happy with what he's got and just waiting for some hard news.

The likely buyers will be the usual suspects : the traders.

The good news is that - if you take account of the 'sticky' shareholders - exGuava and exGarbet - you can easily get to between 45 and 55%......and per stockopedia the free float is barely 11% (not sure on what basis they say this).

So - as we've seen (EIS and FOCAC) - it's not surprising that the s/p can move up a lot just on the prospect of news.... and will drift back in the absence of same.

ATB

Hi all,

Ain't technology wonderful !
Marine traffic now appears to be showing Rizwan on the move, separated from AM, destination Dry Dock...
AM still on 'sea trials'

ATB

Hi again P Bateman,

…"Any resolution to the talks now has to be led by China, Glencore and Trafigura (rather than just the government vs. IMF), so one imagines it would almost certainly involve a route to developing Zanaga in some capacity..."

A long time back I suggested that C-B's min 10% free carry in ZIOP might be a deal-maker : put it into escrow/a sovereign wealth fund (out of the kleptocrat's reach) and use it as security for existing and future debt...

OK , it smacks of neo-colonialism and tutelage , but may be an acceptable way forward ? The C-B powers-that-be are clearly under scrutiny and presumably - with rising expectations amongst the local populace - somewhat between a rock and a hard place.

ATB

Hi PBateman,

Thanks for this article and link, which will be hard to 'spin' as to the realities, though no doubt some will try.

I particularly found plausible the comment that the IMF has been seeking " une requête écrite de l’administrateur siégeant de la Chine", which has been translated as the 'sitting administrator of China', but which seems likely to be a reference to President Xi himself.

I guess that's the flip-side of absolute power, with it comes total responsibility...;-<

The escalation in signatures apparently offered - Deputy Min of Commerce then Exim Bank - also strikes a personal chord : many years ago I had the tricky task of having to explain to the office of a then Crown Prince that unfortunately, we needed his dad's signature on a document and that HRH's wasn't ….errrm , good enough....

Maybe the IMF/World Bank will be able to get some indirect or tacit acknowledgement (eg letter of comfort) that will satisfy them.

ATB

Hi all,

C-B's Ministry of Finance has decided it needs to have a strategy in place for managing the country's public sector debt, esp. in view of IMF/World Bank expectations.

https://www.finances.gouv.cg/fr/lancement-comité-national-dette_041018

As a first step, it'll be updating the legal framework of the National Public Debt Committee...and considering how it should go about its business, with a suggested meeting once a quarter.

Note the laconic conclusion : "En effet, créé par décret n°2008-56 du 31 mars 2008, cet organe de la dette est resté en totale hibernation pendant dix ans à ce jour. "

ATB

Hi Sidneysideline,

Well, if you're missing your 'fix' of worthwhile posts, you can pop over to twitter, where MM is busy joining dots about a French ministerial visit..."part of an IMF deal ???..."

If you listen (in French) to the accompanying video, it's ACTUALLY about the French financing the Brazzaville corniche/ring road and plans for celebrating the centenary of ending of WW1...

Seems as though the Pres isn't the only leopard that can't change its spots !

ATB

Hi gary38,

I'd be more concerned about the frigate being a high value target for the Yemenis (or whoever) and us being collateral damage...…
I don't think the Royal Navy has the resources to defend British flagged vessels, much less a random Curacao-flagged ship.

ATB

Hi DGR1980,

Well, as the saying goes " build it - and they will come" !

Port, powerplant and rail/slurry link, please. And don't charge us over the odds.

ATB

Hi DGR1980,

Agree that !

The more astute local pols will certainly want to be part of the solution and not part of the problem. Not sure how 'proactive' the Chinese are willing to be, at least openly.

ATB

Hi DGR1980,

I followed the order used in the AfricaIntelligence link.

You can also 'join the dots' to the recent announcement of a new 'anti-corruption high commission'......but that the changes are seen as so far cosmetic (that was the 3/10 article, btw, if you're concerned about chronology). The leopard hasn't yet been persuaded to change its spots.

Maybe Chinese 'soft power' will lean on him a bit....and persuade him that he's better off taking a (somewhat) smaller share of a MUCH LARGER pie ?

ATB

Hi Bhoyogrim,

Looks that way.

If you go to Geobrorhs22 Africa Intelligence link from last night and drill down, you see a number of articles (behind paywall), flavour generally suggesting " it's complicated".

Sample :

Congo-B 22/08/2018
No getting around the IMF for Sassou Nguesso
The failure of Prime Minister Clement Mouamba's mission to Beijing leaves the government no option but to swallow Washington's medicine.

CONGO-B 03/10/2018
Denis Sassou Nguesso gives his inner circle a facelift
The president has deigned to bring in new faces, many of whom are the offspring of long-standing allies. [..

CONGO-B 04/09/2018
Ominga flouts crisis and appoints a plethora of SNPC executives
Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been in talks [...]

CONGO-B 18/07/2018
Sassou Nguesso thumbs his nose at the IMF
The Congolese president is resisting the austerity measures demanded by the monetary institution. [...]
CONGO-B 17/07/2018
SNPC: Alphonse Okoye's agenda already shaped by IMF pressure
The new board chairman of the Societe nationale des petroles du Congo (SNPC) and former director general of external trade, [...]

Special report CONGO-B 14/11/2017

Exclusive: The financial acrobatics of a government walking a tightrope
Pending the decision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is due to decide early next year whether it is willing to lend to a debt-ridden Congo.....etc

Debt negotiations and associated terms (including better governance) are clearly meeting resistance from local vested interests. .....as some of us have dared to suggest, to the evident unhappiness of the BOOM BOOM crowd .

Hopefully, the potential win-wins will prompt some 'knocking of heads' and break the apparent impasse.

ATB

Hi all,

Key phrase : 'As previously reported..."

Good to see that they consider conventional pelletisation may be economic (= avoids technology risk) and that they're firming up the transport option costs. And that they agree with MM re structural shift in quality ore prices.

Second key phrase : "As indicated previously, the Company and its associate Jumelles intend to be in a position to provide more detail on the outcomes of the study work by the end of this year including an economic assessment of the viability of the EPP project. "

Steady as she goes.

ATB

Hi PBateman,


Whilst 1SS gets back to you re Everitt (bloke) / Everitt (part of Temasek), another line of enquiry re possible Singapore involvement is that a company called 'Jurong' appears on a map as one of the 4 options proposed for layout of the new port .

http://zes.gouv.cg/sites/default/files/carte_zes_pn3.jpg

Jurong is a Singapore state-owned venture that operates ports and industrial estates, so may have (had) some kind of consultancy / advisory role. Singapore has used its 'overseas Chinese' status in the past.

A bit of a tenuous connection, but there's a lot of that about here anyway, so I thought I'd join in for once.

ATB

Hi escargot,

Month-end isn't until Sunday 30th. We're now Thurs pm (Dubai time), about to knock off for Friday.

They'll be back at work in Dubai Saturday and Sunday....and will be halfway through Monday their time before we open for business.

I don't know the credibility or track record of SIPPn00b's 'good authority' but Tarkers is presumably still on the case !

ATB

Hi MM,

Well, so far at least, the limited hard and relevant facts available appear to favour my conservative views over your exuberant ones. Playground level insults don't really change anything, much though you might wish.

BTW, spreadsheets and google-translate have their place in investment and in life generally , but common sense should tell you that: garbage in = garbage out ......and that AI is only a partial substitute for the real thing .

Me, I'm looking forward to some hard, relevant info from AT/ZIOC in the forthcoming presentation, to see if we can turn more heat into light

ATB

Hi MM,

I sincerely hope that Ironveld isn't 'our next step' :

(1) 10,000 tons of product for extensive sampling would - at 800 tons per rail shipment - require 12 shipments to existing PN. The rail line appears to have managed 3 shipments since May 2018.

(2) If the initial 10,000 tons is tested successfully..." the Off-taker has indicated that they may request to undertake a long-term test of a significantly larger sample, taken across the licence holdings of the Company for variability testing. It is anticipated that this extended testing programme could last for up to 12 months....".

These aren't 'free samples' - and Ironveld apparently expects to cover at least its operating costs - but that's likely because of the significantly higher value of its samples because of the 5% vanadium content ($80 per Kg) and titanium ($4,800 per ton) .

ATB

Hi Riskisgood,

Thanks for posting the link to Sundance.

The shareholders have clearly found that they're not in Kansas anymore.

ATB

Hi MM,

…"ZIOC known to be looking at transport options for the EPP...."

From the history, it looks like we should concentrate on the Gabon or trucking (?) options :

- the first Sapro Mayoko rail shipment (20 cars x 40 tons) left late May 2018 and arrived at PN a couple of weeks later;
- the second set out 27 May 9another 20) and 6 cars derailed, no news when it reached PN;
- this latest tweeted shipment (4 months later, track presumably refurbished) is the third.

If the rail system was upgraded to 1 shipment per day, at 800 tons per shipment it would take 3 1/2 years to shift 1 million tons.

The French-backed loan that SaproMayoko was seeking last year clearly can't come soon enough ! No loan amount quoted, that I can see, but apart from the track itself they'll need a hell of a lot of rolling stock.

Meanwhile, the premium on any emerging capacity in the Gabon route can only rise.

Let's hope that the forthcoming presentation provides some hard info.

ATB