Member Info for extrader

Hi Genghis15,

Interesting day 2 :

30 min Rolvsnes appraisal well preliminary results TBA, Lundin
Coffee break 30 min
30 min Lancaster case study - where are we now and what comes next? Robert Trice, Hurricane Energy

ATB

Hi Geobrorhs22,

I think the 'bones' are where the article says (I've capped, since I can't bold) :

…."The IMF repeatedly rescheduled board meetings to discuss the package in recent months, WITHOUT SAYING WHY. It reached an agreement with the government in April on a program to stabilize government finances.

“The arrangement to support Congo’s economic program would be placed on the IMF Executive Board agenda ONCE credible and specific assurances from key creditors on debt restructuring have been established,” the fund said in an emailed RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS ON FRIDAY."

As I speculated earlier, the IMF is making clear IN PUBLIC who the 'baddies' are that are holding things up (ie why there's no NEWS) ....and what they need to do...

I'm actually quite encouraged ;->

ATB

Hi gta,

Thanks for this !

Now, if GLEN and the Chinese were to agree to reschedule their trade debt PROVIDED they had some kind of preferential access to C-B's dividends from ZIOP as source of repayment, they'd both be motivated to push ahead with the (separate) finance of the project and related infrastructure(port, power, rail/road, etc)…..maybe ?

Anyway, the mere fact that this is being made public suggests that this idea (or something similar) has been floated - and maybe turned down so far - and pressure is being applied.

I'm sure also that , given the various overlapping business interests, there's some "creative" way of making Trafigura's cooperatio worth while : win/win/win !

ATB

Hi Donscot,

Welcome to the board !

You write …"hearing that is likely to be around three weeks...at least..."

I believe Dr T is on record as suggesting 1 week max in R'dam, which would be consistent with the work we know to be necessary - fitting flare stack and removing moon-plate - what else has cropped up, to your knowledge or that you've heard ?

TIA and ATB

Hi el19,

Thanks for clarifying ! Good to have an 'industry opinion' that …"HUR is top of the radar with all the majors"...... even if still off-screen, per marinetraffic, at least....;->

ATB

Hi el19,

Welcome to the board ! As an infrequent poster, it's difficult for the reader to know how to evaluate a number of specific points that you make :

- problems at the yard in Dubai : care to share their nature? and your source ?
- Spirit deal in the works 'for many months' : how far back, can you say ?
- impending bad weather forecast : are you expecting anything more than 'usual seasonal', if so, source pls.

It's fine if this is just 'scuttlebutt', we all post opinions from time to time (some more than others ;-<) , but if you have some specific details to share that would be appreciated.

ATB

Hi Boyzee,

Just to put things re Daring / Yemen in perspective, the article is dated 10 November 2016......and I don't remember too many headlines re 'incidents' since then ;->

OTOH, as the investment guru reminds us ' past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future'....;-<

ATB

Hi scottology The trade-off of 60 % of our stake for a free carry makes sense as a way of avoiding crippling dilution. Applying a 20 × PE ratio to a one-product company in a 'difficult country seems ambitious when multiproduct , multi country GLEN only attracts a PE of 10 x. Maybe ZIOP would warrant a 5x or 6x ratio, depending on who its partners were and the strength of the financial and commercial agreements and counterparts ? ATB

Hi scottology,

Good to revisit these numbers from time to time, but they take no account of the time value of money.

The $4.2 billion or whatever has to be paid upfront, the 'profit' is over the 30 years post-commissioning

You need to apply a discount factor for the 'profit' you're making in the later years , to reflect what they're 'worth' today , relative to the capital spent today ie a Net Present Value calculation.

MM did this a while back, albeit on some fairly generous (imo) assumptions.

HTH and ATB

Hi malrees,

…."imo the only shareholder holder who will have to agree initially with a to bid is Kerogen."

I'm inclined to agree with you, FWLIW, but there's an interesting wrinkle : what if there's an approach (single or joint) from any of Sinopec, CNPC, CNOOC or Sinochem Group.....

Even if the price were otherwise 'full' - and uncontested - and Kerogen , quite reasonably, supported it , I imagine such a bid might not go through....

ATB

Hi scottology,

Thanks for this.

The C-B equity stake - % age and amount not specified in the article - can be satisfied ' in cash or in kind'.

ATB

Hi Dr R,

Whatever happened to Do Your Own Research...;-> ?

ATB

Hi missdosh,

Thanks for this, not much meat, but Malcy did comment re FOIL : …"January, February, whenever it is ".....so consistent at least with the general (?) understanding....

ATB

Hi all,

Most of the action is underwater and underneath ie in the shadow of the AM, so will be pretty dark even in 'daylight'.
And I'm sure there'll be a lot of electronic 'assist' in any event.

ATB

OTOH,

having looked again, this is all within a rectangle maybe 300m x 400m, so could it be finetuning of thrusters/steering controls for close quarters work ?

Hi SippNoob,

I wonder whether it's re-calibrating compasses ? Metal added and metal removed might well have affected .

Or maybe they're testing out Siri / Alexa for voice commands ;->

ATB

Hi Geobrorhs22,

Thanks for the link, agree it's a good start : the office has said it will start work by updating its statutes and looking at its programme of activities, suggesting that it should meet quarterly.
So, procedural stuff rather than 'action', but I agree optically important from an IMF 'box-checking' perspective.

With ore prices still rising, I think someone should be contacting AT re EPP update : in the words of the classic Omega advert - " Just ask yourself, if not now, when ?"

ATB

Hi HTL,

Hang in there ! ….and keep us informed of your progress.

https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/invictus/

ATB

Hi Geobrorhs22,

Thanks for the link - you didn't quote the best bit ;-> ! Decision to name and shame job-skivers, following snap raids on 27th and 28th Sept :

.."Il en ressort que cinquante-six agents et fonctionnaires d’Etat ont été pris en flagrant délit de présence sur ces lieux et ce, aux heures de travail qui leur sont en principe dévolues.
Pour l’édification du peuple et sans que cela ne soit perçu comme un acte de délation, le Conseil des ministres a décidé de rendre publiques les identités, administrations ou structures d’origine des agents ainsi débusqués, tout comme les lieux de jouissance où ils ont été surpris."...

Transl. : The outcome was that fifty-six agents and state officials were caught in 'delicto flagrante' on these premises during workhours..
For the edification of the people and without this being perceived as an act of denunciation, the Council of Ministers decided to make public the identities of the civil servants involved, as well as the places of enjoyment where they were surprised...:"

Long list follows of names and venues (beach , restaurants and several 'cafes' get a (dis)honourable mention).

Must have livened up an otherwise tedious session - and on a Saturday morning.

ATB

Hi SpruceGoose2,

Amidst all the technical gubbins (;->), you forgot the key test : I see from the tracker that we've now been round the lighthouse (well, marker buoy).

Job done, then !

ATB