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Hi escargot,

Not us....British Aerospace helping Saudi in Yemen, locating our M East base in Bahrain. Not the (socialist) Spanish, arguing the case for 5 new frigates for the Cadiz shipyards. Never the French.

The only ones who've shown any qualms, perhaps surprisingly, are the Germans. But their tanks aren't suitable for Saudi, nor their submarines (I'm told, can't recall why offhand), so it's easier to take the moral high ground...

ATB

Hi escargot et al,

Saudi's in a bit of a dilemma re stance on possible cutbacks to oil production.

On the one hand, Trump has reportedly been pressuring them to keep the oil flowing, for US domestic reasons….and to cover any shortfall from an Iran 'blockade' that he Trump has merrily undone, by 'granting' waivers.

The pressure presumably coming from downplaying the role of the Crown Prince in Kashoggi's murder.

On the other hand, to the extent that the Saudis knuckle under, their economy suffers....and the Crown Prince's popularity takes a dive

I think when he goes to the OPEC talks, the Oil Minister will be taking more than the usual 'consultation calls' with his lord(s) and master(s).

ATB

Hi gta5,

Thanks for this.

IMF's 'remaining steps required' include....."adjustments to the 2019 Draft Budget, implementation of reforms to improve governance and transparency, and the provision of explicit assurances on financing from external official creditors, including debt relief, which is needed to restore debt sustainability."

My recent posts were mostly about what was required of Nguesso and cronies ie the corruption aspect. Yesterday's FT carried a long article ("IMF faces China debt dilemma as low income nations seek help ") about the third point, viz Chinese co-operation on the debt burden.

The article makes the following points :

- the debt burden to China is opaque, with no reliable information about amount, maturity, cost and terms of its loans, and guarantees re loans to State-owned enterprises, without which transparency the IMF can't assess sustainability;
- the IMF represents the Washington consensus, which stresses multilateral initiatives, open procurement and financial transparency. China’s approach in the BRI is largely bilateral, with project details withheld and contracts awarded mostly to Chinese state firms.
- China is not a member of the Paris Club, the representative of international lenders who co-ordinate to ensure a level playing field (re any concessions) and there's an IMF / Washington condition that any debt relief isn't just used to pay off China.

Although the example used in the FT article to illustrate these issues is Pakistan, it concludes " western governments will now want to see a formal commitment to burden sharing before they back an IMF bailout of any country heavily indebted to China."

So it looks as though it's not just Nguesso who has to 'blink' , but also Xi, if C-B is to get IMF support. And although the amounts involved in C-B may be small compared to Pakistan (or Venezuela, say), the IMF probably won't want to set a precedent unless it's a deserving case. Which puts the ball back in Nguesso's court.

Maybe heshould take a leaf out of Mohammed bin Salman's playbook and nominate some of his nearest and dearest to 'take one for the team'...;-<

NAI, DYOR and ATB

-

Hi Geobrorhs22,

Cutting through abzzba's google-translate (thanks, at least it gives a flavour), the 'bones' are :
- C-B is a member of the 6 country CEMAC, which uses as a common currency the Central African Franc (CFA);
- the IMF and France have recommended the CFA be devalued (to discourage imports/encourage exports);
- the 6 have rejected this, so the IMF is looking at bilateral discussions. C-B and Equatorial Guinea haven't yet;
- the C-B opposition have told the IMF that Gov't has been understating its debt;
- at a recent CEMAC mtg, Nguesso was blamed for holding everything up - he's under pressure to reach an agreement with the IMF;
- the IMF (the article claims) has told Nguesso 'no deal unless you get everyone on board, we want a gov't of national unity';
- Nguesso has been here before (similar proposal back in the '90's, which he agreed to then and which led to his (earlier) ousting);
- don't be surprised at his change of tune, however, he's between a rock and a hard place.

That's my understanding of the thrust of the article. If you look at some of their other C-B coverage, it's clear that they're anti-Nguesso, so the article may well be biased !

FWLIW, DYOR, HTH and ATB

Hi Mitch 984,

Thanks to you (and MM) for the latest snippet.

If you go to Global Energy Interconnection website
https://www.hydropower.org/companies/the-global-energy-interconnection-development-and-cooperation-organization

From the website :
…"GEIDCO will promote the concept of GEI, formulate GEI development plans, promote the creation of a GEI technical standards framework, organise concerted and collaborative efforts in researches and innovations, key studies, international communication and cooperation, engineering project implementation, provide consulting services, and lead the development of GEI...."
you'll see that it's a think tank, rather than a company directly in the power business itself. Also, mainly interested in renewables, hence the reference in the video to C-B's hydro-electric potential.

All grist to the mill, but not in itself a game-changer, in my view.

ATB

Hi all,

Whilst we're waiting for something to happen with ZIOC, it's worth keeping an eye on Kore Potash (EPIC : KP2), to see how they're addressing their issues.

Their asset is close to the coast and it seems they'll be using their own (low tech, cheap and cheerful) port to produce potash inexpensively, with Brazil the nearest market. They supposedly have transport and cost advantages over traditional suppliers Canada and one of the 'stans, I forget which.

They need to do a big equity raise at some point, but appear to have lined up some conditional export credit cover for equipment supplier / contractor finance from the French and S Africans. It's not clear whether this too is contingent on IMF sign-off on C-B credt-worthiness.

Not a holder of KP2, just interested in possible read-across for us.

DYOR and ATB

Hi Parity10,

..."To the best of my lnowledge, the IMF has not yet received this reassurance....."

That's the nub of the problem, IMO : C-B has made positive noises (eg the setting up/reactivation of an anti-corruption unit and various other legislative initiatives) but the proof of the pudding etc...nothing has actually happened, so far.

There aren't even any sacrificial goats on offer here so far (eg publicized sacking of some kleptocrat civil servants or politicians) , the Saudis are at least paying lip-service to 'Western values' by 'rounding up (some of) the usual suspects' in the Khashoggji case...

ATB

….except it's not (yet) a commercial...;->

ATB

Hi DGR1980,

"Pots and kettles eh?"

No. I post facts, in an attempt to correct the slant/spin of others.

I recognise that's not to everyone's liking or taste...or interest.

ATB

Hi SXX -Pound-Party,

You must be looking somewhere different from me ?

WoS shows waves below 2m from Friday 0600 to Tuesday 2100, as far as I can see from your link. That's over 110 hours continuous.

Per Dr T, we need a 6 hour window of less than 3 metres for hook-up, IIRC.

I appreciate that this is 'interesting but irrelevant' for a boat currently in sheltered waters in Southern Spain , but the point remains !

ATB

Hi DGR1980,

You really ought to read things more closely.

I quoted a third party (named) source and questioned the journalist's credentials.

But - hey ! - why let the facts get in the way of your slant on things ?

ATB

Hi Geo,

Edited highlights only !

I 'bit' and paid Euro 6 (not 5 ;-<). Only 160 words or so....and mostly re-hashing what is already in the public domain (multiple IMF to-ing and fro-ing), first time I'd seen a reference to a possible 'nix', by Xi.

Remember, he sent Kenyatta packing at FOCAC (who arrived, per PBateman with a new project financing proposal re next phase of railway) saying that China wanted to see the commerciality of existing.

So maybe there's something in it. Wonder if tomshare our erstwhile resident Sinologist has any views ?

HTH and ATB

Hi all

…..The signing in Washington of a new programme with Brazzaville is on hold at Beijing's behest....
per
www.africaintelligence.com/lce/business-circles/2018/11/14/imf-chinese-voice-doubts-over-accord,108332407-art?CXT=PUB&utm_source=LCE&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=AUTO_EDIT_SOM&did=74

Rest of article behind paywall. Says the stumbling block is Chinese distrust of Congolese and that Xi has backtracked on terms supposedly agreed with Nguesso at FOCAC.

No idea how credible africaintelligence is as a source. It claims to be

.". the leading African news site for professionals.

The Africa Intelligence editorial team produces five confidential newsletters: West Africa Newsletter, The Indian Ocean Newsletter, Maghreb Confidential, Africa Energy Intelligence and Africa Mining Intelligence. Headed by Executive Director Philippe Vasset, it has been chronicling the activities of African decision-makers for more than 20 years, paying particular attention to relations between the political authorities and business world.

Africa Intelligence is published in Paris by an independent press group called Indigo Publications which depends entirely on revenues from subscriptions and the sale of individual articles. As an advocate of total editorial independence, it accepts no advertising, carries out no consulting work and has no external shareholders "

FWIW
ATB

Hi Geobrorhs22,

The IMF agreement to debt restructuring (which might be part write-off - not welcome - or lengthening of repayment terms aka 'extend and pretend') is needed to show existing and potential lenders that C-B has the capacity (cashflow) to repay existing debt AND any extra debt it takes on.

C-B is (somewhat) like a home-owner already struggling to pay its mortgage wanting finance for a new BTL : the BTL has to 'wash its face' comfortably, but the potential new lender will want to see that any BTL income goes to cover HIS loan and not be snaffled by the earlier lender....The IMF is there to provide (impartial) oversight.

The debt restructuring might also take the form of some kind of swap - debt for equity. Debt is repayable, equity is risk capital.

It's not just the Chinese (the port and power plant) who need the IMF 'seal of approval' : export credit agencies such as the French are supposedly looking at financing the Sapo Mayoko rail link......and (along with the S Africans) the Kore Potash plant; the Danes (per MM) the ammonia/urea fertiliser etc etc. Whoever lends money to ZIOP will want the same reassurance.

That's my understanding of how these things work, anyway.

ATB

Thanks PBateman,

Key phrase, in my view …"les réformes entreprises par le Congo qui semble piétiner dans la mise en pratique des mesures édictées par le FMI, notamment dans la transparence des finances publiques et dans la lutte contre la corruption et l’impunité…."

i.e. [the IMF experts will check out ] the reforms undertaken by Congo which don't seem to be addressing implementation of the measures required by the IMF, in particular in the transparency of public finances and in the fight against corruption and people being above the law..."

Still a ways to go, it would seem. Sooner or later, C-B will get the message and - hopefully - 'blink'.

ATB

Hi Geobrorhs22,

www.finances.gouv.cg/fr/audience-ambassadeur-chine_291018

Hope this works for you.

ATB

Oops !

Obviously 30x , not 300 x......scottology's enthusiasm must be catching.....;-<

ATB

Hi scottology,

…"Obviously the market will value this on a P/E basis but I feel 20 x P/E is achievable for such a strong asset with a life that spans several generations...."

We've been here before ;-<

AAL P/E : 9.2 ; BLT P/E : 11.6 ; GLEN P/E : 8.85 ; RIO P/E : 10.9 .

These are all geographically and product-diversified mining houses; we are (or will be) a 0ne-product company in a 'difficult' part of the world. A P/E nearer 5x is realistic.

That would give roughly £ 4 per share, which I - and I suspect most investors, including our 'core shareholders' + Keith - would be delighted with.

That would be 300x the current shareprice.

ATB

Hi all,

Today's the day they're supposed to kick off

finances.gouv.cg/fr/audience-am…

Picnic time for teddy bears.

ATB

Hi adoubleUK,

I've had a Saunier Duval in my holiday home for the last 20 years. Works well and the after sales/ maintenance service is pretty good.

ATB