Member Info for extrader

Hi OliverJames,

If your comment was directed at MM, I agree. He certainly has a tendency to 'play the man, not the ball' whenever anyone has the temerity to challenge his assertions. 'Research' usually involves considering ALL the evidence , before arriving at a balanced conclusion, not just cherry-picking the bits that suit.

If at me, I think you're suffering a humour bypass : I was admiring MM's vivid imagination (seen on display elsewhere) in coming up with the 'plagiarism analysis device'.

As any fule kno, LSE rules don't allow multiposters, hence my jocular reference to them.

They're worth a read.

ATB

Hi MM,

Very droll !

Your daughter must have picked up her 'creative English' skills from you....and her reading and comprehension skills from someone else. See LSE's posting rules.

But maybe they don't apply to Premium Members.

ATB

Hi MM,

(1) You really shouldn't repeat statements like : "..Furthermore funding for the project has been guaranteed, …" on a project that .."must have been many months in coming, if not years..", until you've investigated and refuted what was shown 1218 today :

…"The Danish export credit agency is EKF, not IKF as reported.
If you go to its website (granted, maybe not updated) , cover for Congo Brazzaville is currently suspended.
https://www.ekf.dk/en/Country-information/afrika/Pages/Congo-Brazzaville-.aspx..."

(2) HT is in the 'catalyst' business - both literally and figuratively : It owns and licences process technology which it sells to third parties : I think you'll find the HT marketing boys rocked up in Brazzaville (indeed, postFOCAC - striking while the iron's hot) to drum up business for themselves, by showing an impressionable audience what MIGHT be possible in the upcoming SEZ....HT only appears to take minority equity stakes, if at all, to sweeten a deal, it appears to leave the 'heavy lifting' to others.

ATB

Hi PBateman,

Thanks for the link.

EKF is on qualified cover for Angola (rated 6 vs. C-B 7) , I guess this highlights the importance of IMF blessing. Once we have this, hopefully C-B will re-rate.

Haldor Topsoe seems a hive of corporate activity : they were in 50/50 J/V with SnamProgetti, before buying them out....and now appear to have done the same with Ferrostaal, buying THEM out (hopefully retaining/acquiring their skillsets).

Their own capital resources seem low for the size of projects undertaken, it looks as though they're planning a partial floatation to address this
MPC Capital is relatively small https://www.mpc-capital.com/contell/cms/server/mpc-capital-com/investor-relations/reports/presentation.html and it appears that Angola will be their first investment in Africa (only Europe and the Americas to-date).

No doubt we'll get more clarity in the fullness of time.

ATB

Hi tomshare,

The Danish export credit agency is EKF, not IKF as reported.
If you go to its website (granted, maybe not updated) , cover for Congo Brazzaville is currently suspended.
https://www.ekf.dk/en/Country-information/afrika/Pages/Congo-Brazzaville-.aspx

The Danish IFU is a developing country aid fund. Its (stale 2016) website shows 1 x completed project in C-B
https://www.ifu.dk/en/investments/portfolio-2/

IFU is partnering Haldor Topsoe in a project in India that sounds similar to the C-B news report (ammonia / urea)
reported in its blog as of 13 Sept.2108 - https://blog.topsoe.com/haldor-topsoe-invests-in-indian-fertilizer-plant

It's worth reading, since there may well be read-across to the ownership structure that they might envisage for C-B.

There is no mention on this blog of C-B that I can find. Haldor Topsoe is currently private, has shareholder funds of abt. USD 300 million and is likely more of a 'technical enabler' - with a token equity participation - than a project owner.

I haven't found much on MGI industries ( care ! google takes you to a Gnostic site...) the promo video mentions gas-to-power and renewable electricity from wind/solar, but nothing re track record , history or financials.

C-B certainly seems to have enough gas available - and anything moving up the value chain (both in terms of product and in terms of boosting local agriculture/employment) will help tick IMF boxes....

ATB

Hi Pawpawman,

I'm trying to narrow down the 5 LoI signatories.

So far, I think we've got Zioc and Sapro Mayoko for the iron ore interest, Cominco for the phosphate and Evergreen Mag for the potash.

Topsoe Haldor is more ammonia and urea (which I accept is a fertiliser, like phosphate and potash).

It would be good to have this confirmed as the 5th. Where did ZIOC mention it, please ?

TIA and ATB

Amidst all the latest (!) kerfuffle over FOIL , the deal with Spirit leaves me for one much more relaxed about the next few months. What price a bit of insurance , eh ? ATB

Hi MM,

Great news - presumably Topsoe will be giving details tomorrow.

"Protocol d'accord " translates as 'memorandum of understanding', so there's still a long way to go, but this should help allay any reservations EximBank may still have..

"Every little helps". In time, PN could be the Atlantic Long Beach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Long_Beach

ATB

Hi MM,

(1) Timing of new port construction : 3 months to 'first shovel' + 4 years = 4 1/4 years. Yes, the project may be fast-tracked, it's still being rescoped. And greenfield projects have been known to slip. If I've 'exaggerated' to 5 years , for effect, I'm in good company. There's little difference (in NPV terms) between 4 years and 5 years, the damage is already done. We also AFAIAA don't yet have a timeline, costings, contractor or finance for the rail - or is it to be slurry ? - connection.

(2) The CRBC / EximBank issue : who / whom ? 4 months after supposedly successful sign-off of port financing in Feb 2018, between these two, CRBC approaches the 5 potential users to ask " If we build it, will you come ? ". It's not customary to get finance first and make the business case second, hence my suggestion that its timing was driven more by internal political considerations (Xi's recent increased interest in 'commercial viability') than anything else. From that perspective, of course THEY approached US.
They don't need to 'woo' us, when it's obvious that we and the other 4 companies are 'gagging for it' . Any playing hard to get is a negotiating tactic.

(3).." Stage 1 of Zanaga will only be developed, as will the other mineral operations, if the costings are right." Well, given the profitability that your postings evidence, there's a lot of margin we could - and I believe will - surrender and still be making out like bandits. I'm sure the Chinese will have worked that out for themselves. Hence my reference to the port being a gold mine. Let's call it a 'win-win'.

(4) The 29 June RNS refers to 2 x rail routes to port, Gabon and the existing link to PN , used in May 2018 by Sapro Mayoko (as an alternate to Gabon). The second shipment derailed and the line not so far repaired AFAIAA, my guess is that they'll want back on to the Gabon route.

The upgrade to Gabon will , per RNS, increase spare capacity from 300ktpa to 1mtpa, by 2020. AIUI, we want throughput of 1mtpa for our EPP, maybe more. With Sapro Mayoko (production 3mtpa rising) coming back and other local demand, I think usage will cost us. Again, refer to the RNS where our concerns re rail are

"Further engagement with SETRAG is expected to result in a higher degree of understanding on the potential to secure ACCESS to this railway line and determine PRICING for its usage."
And re port are :
"The Zanaga Project Team are engaging with GSEZ in an effort to understand the potential PRICING associated with this option. "

As ever, there's more than one way of looking at these things. Time , as ever, will tell.

ATB

Hi sootysnipes,

Sure, the new port is easily 5 years away, hence the need to be doing stuff in the interim.

It'll certainly be interesting to see some of the numbers ZIOC come up with in any presentation : the Chinese will have us (and Cominco etc) over a barrel in the longer term Phase 1 and 2 and likely charge accordingly (maybe even a profit share charge -e.g. " X $ per tonne (1/2 X or 1/3 X being the going rate) OR Y % of your margin, whichever the higher....")

In the shorter EPP term, if we're hoping to use Gabon (where there are capacity constraints,anyway), they're likely to leg us over, too : why should they do us any favours, giving us priority over existing long-standing customers, when they know we'll drop them for the new port as soon as we can ? And , if you were in their shoes, could you blame them ?

Let's hope all will be clearer in a few weeks' time.

ATB

Hi tomshare,

Thanks for the reasoned exposition , which brings a lot of the threads together

Let's hope everyone plays their part and follows the script !

With the logjam broken, we might then see some news/movement on power plant and - post IMF blessing- maybe even the French progressing sapro mayoko's rail link , in a new 'scramble for Africa' . What exactly WAS that Belgian doing in town the other day ;->?

ATB

ATB

ATB

Condorlini / Riskisgood,

Learned about Estas Tonne - great classical guitarist - from the HUR board...
Listening to him play Song of the Golden Dragon watching the sun set over the Portuguese Atlantic is pretty magical.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gphiFVVtUI

ATB

Hi Popples,

Well, every sell is also a buy , and viceversa.

AIUI, algorithms look at the price a deal was struck at when posted and then see what the bid/offer price at the time was . It then 'decides' - based on which the deal was closer to, whether the transaction was a buy or a sell.

If there's a timing delay, it can - and does - make mistakes.

Minor Miner has posted some good examples of how such misreporting can occur.

This is only MY understanding, as ever DYOR !

ATB

Hi tomshare,

I absolutely get the bit :

.."During this year's Sino-African Cooperation Summit, China Communications Construction Company has successfully signed

They use the word 成功 which can be seen in the above translation as successfully I.e. Already happened...."

I'm happy to defer to you on Chinese grammar ! If it 'has already happened' - a week ago now - why haven't we heard anyhting more concrete ?

We seem to go from successful technical and bilateral co-operation agreements, through successful heads of agreement, past successful memoranda of understanding, without actually getting to the meat.

The CRBC Feb 2018 port signature recital goes back to successful' agreements since 2013....

As gta5 has posted ' show us the money' !

ATB

It's easy to see how we can get ahead of ourselves, but frustrating all the same

Cont…
…”People, or muppets lacking any real knowledge of market workings, like to think about some shady group of thugs stealing their hard-earned money, because there is absolutely no other possible reason their stock is not going up.
Also some are confused with locally traded stocks, i.e. ones not traded electronically, that have a designated MM or broker that actually" makes the market" in the traditional sense where you don't have true visibility of the book.
OK I'll shut up now and leave because now I'm part of the reason why this bb has become a kindergarten playground.”
-Oliver James : you asked re absence of links to my postings and possible concern re libel.
Libel first : no. ‘truth’ is an absolute defence and ‘honest opinion’ a strong second.
Absence of links ? LSE posting guidelines and DYOR. MM has invited us to look at his feed (not that we need his permission, a search on google gets you there), shouldn’t really cry ‘foul’ if anyone looks down the rabbit-holes…

-the PBateman / tom************** had 2 takeaways : (1) tomshare acknowledged that you often can’t rely on news out of China, the media often prepare the news BEFORE the fact (saves time in a society where things are heavily ‘choreographed’ and discordant / dissenting views not tolerated.)
In this respect , to paraphrase “All meetings are successful, some (we hope) more successful than others”

(2) extension to Kenya railway :
"Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta went to Beijing requesting that China give half the $3.8bn needed to build the phase as a grant, as opposed to a loan, but China’s President Xi Xinping deferred making that decision until a commercial viability study is done on the whole line, say reports.

This is great news ! The emphasis on commercial viability MAY be what prompted the recent 5-way LoI’s re port usage. The premium for unlocking ‘stranded assets’ must be considerable
Never mind iron ore (us) or phosphate (Cominco – largest deposit in the world, nearest potential supplier to Brazil) , the new port ought to be a GOLD MINE : with our fantastic profitability (hat-tip : MM) and lack of credible alternative , they can and probably will charge us pretty much what they want.

Very much looking forward to the promised presentation.

Good luck all

Hi all,

Now playing 'catch-up' after being sin-binned for 'disruptive' posts. The concept of 'safe spaces' to protect people from other viewpoints has apparently gained more traction than I thought ;-<

- gta5 :agree the thrust of your posts and second Condorlini's rec. for Public Enemy. What with this and Riskisgood introducing me to The Voice, I'm learning new stuff all the time. Re your missing post, I have a screenshot if you want. The key line is " . If de-rampers are the cause of stocks going down, well then by that rationale rampers must be the cause of stocks going up. "

- shaun86 : you linked RNS re shareholder transfer of 8.5 million shares to recent price fall. If you look at the TR-1, the ownership change took place 28 Aug in Mauritius, ZIOC was notified on the 29th and the RNS issued the 31st. Note it was a transfer , not a disposal ; it could have been arranged months/years ago and this was just the 'effective date'; and the recipient wasn't a PMDR, just a member of the Guava 'consortium'. The transfer was below the notifiable level, which could be for any number of 'non-sinister' reasons - maybe the recipient lives in a rough neighbourhood, for instance.
Anyhoo, the s/p rose the next 5 business days to 3/1, by which time about 8.8 million (per LSE) shares had changed hands; it only started dropping on the 6th - after a further 4 million in shares traded, when the hype surrounding FOCAC failed to deliver.
The timeline doesn't fit your narrative. Also, as a 'well-connected' longtime member of the Guava consortium, you're likely to have a better handle on ZIOC's prospects than any bb poster. If somebody handed me £1.7 million in shares with the prospect of 5x or 10xin the not-too-distant, even if i needed money, I'd sure look at alternatives before selling - wouldn't you ?

general : the other canard regularly trotted out is 'those dastardly price-manipulating MM's, who haven't forgiven ZIOC for never giving out lucrative share placement mandates'. Here's a timely explanation of what MM's actually do from an exMM (arbitrader75) on the LSE HUR board 13.33 yesterday- where the same drivel is occasionally spouted :

Extracts :
... a MM in the context of Hurricane is merely a liquidity provider.
Always under stringent rules they have to give off bid and ask orders for predetermined minimum sizes and for predetermined maximum spreads.
Uptime for these orders has to be 95% daily, weekly and monthly at a minimum.
Failure to meet these requirements means termination of contract and withheld fees.
Whilst "quoting" the market as it's called they can make money buy having their orders traded and hereby "making the spread".
Also when a large buyer or seller wants to do a blocktrade tusands of products.

But they wake up everyday thinking:how can I drop the bid 1p in Hurricane to fuck with their LTH's!
I think not, no in fact after having been a fucking market maker professionally for 5 years I know so..."..
(to be cont

Hi Afric,

Modesty compels me to confess that the bit in quotes wasn't mine.

You've got to admit, surely, that - regardless what you may think of the actual content - my words are a bit more varied than 'buy ! buy ! buy!'....'this is only going one way'....wouldn't want to be out of this over the week-end'...'this time next week, Rodders...' well, you get the drift, I hope.

ATB

Exactamundo !

…"Greenspan's idea was to obfuscate the Fed Chairman's true opinion in long complex sentences with obscure words so as to intentionally mute any strong market response...."

No risk of such Delphic pronouncements here !

Hi Yoshie,

This is what Cominco Resources thinks is happening

http://www.comincoresources.com/news/gallery/17

If I understand it correctly (but DYOR, I'm an anonymous bb poster , who may have got it wrong , and Cominco is a private company, so not easily held to account), it shows where they reckon the new port (and SEZ) are going to be :

- north of 'old' PN - the country's (and DRC's) main port, which we'll need to bring in all our mining eqpt - and which is already supposedly getting some upgrade work; and
-south of Pointe-Indienne proper, which as you say, seems to be an R + R destination.

The 'new ' port is also - as things stand at the moment - being called Pointe Noire.

As I say, I may have got it all wrong, in which case no doubt someone will be along soon enough to point this out

HTH and ATB
PS Some of the other pics are interesting for the 'flavour' they give.

Hi MM,

…"the stock market is proving, once again, a device for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient..."

Wise words , indeed.

I always find it odd that Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who presided over the credit conditions that led to the dotcom boom/bust , nevertheless found time to lament the 'irrational exuberance' that lead up to it.

Patience is indeed a beautiful thing.

ATB